Fellas,

As I read this thread it's obvious that most everyone is either on one side of the fence (the sky is falling) or on the calm, clear & sunny side of the fence. I'm currently working on my swimming abilities as a poolie just waiting and waiting for the call to head to Denver.

What's some valid pros and cons of A: staying with my current Dallas all 737 airline, B: exercising a CJO to AA or C: continue to swim in this pool with the fear that my UA CJO will expire if we don't start BI soon ish?

Depends on your age and projected retirements at each of those airlines. Organic growth is pretty much a thing of the past so seniority will be mostly through attrition. That at least gives you a financial basis for making a comparison., but totally ignores personal preference for corporate culture at each of the choices. Some guys like hauling freight all night, others don't, etc. etc.

Can you tell us anything about the source for this intel? If I remember correctly it does jibe with the last ManPower update, but just wondering where you heard it.

Check airman meeting last week it was said by both Kirby and Paul Carlson that 450ish was the number they were planning for 2018.

I sent you a message if you have questions

I thought returnees were filling the Nov class.

The last of the pilots out don't have to come back until Fall of 2018- Fall of 2019

The 65 737-700s were not cancelled. They were converted to 4 737-800s (the last of which we received this month) and 61 737-9 MAXs which all pay the higher 800/900 pay rate and increase the blended rate instead of lowering it as the 700s would have done. (This was along with converting the existing 100 737-9 MAX orders to 100 737-10 MAX)

Long term, the larger, and more efficient, MAX orders make more sense than the small, older, NGs. We just have to wait a bit longer for them.

Im still not sure what the total max order is right now. I realize we SHOULD have 161 outstanding orders (100 Max 10's and the 61 converted 700NG's to Max 9's). I have seen one press release and the Boeing website indicate 135 737 Max's on order. In either case we have a significant amount of narrow bodies coming in the near future (10 Max 9's in 2018 and 24 Max 9's in 2019).

The other unknown is the schedule for the China Southern 319's. Not sure if they are still coming since that info was excluded from recent flight ops updates on future deliveries.

Another 'unknown' is what the company might be planning with regards to parking more of the older aircraft, in the coming few years.

As long as we hire 450ish, we are keeping up with retirements and keeping the training pipeline primed.
It's been quoted that K wanted more/better utilization of aircraft and crews.
So its possible to actually grow the airline without actually adding tons of planes and pilots.

I still smile when I think about people believing that we were going to have 14000-16000-18000 pilots in the coming years.

Sometimes slow & steady does win the race.

As far as summer 2018 is concerned, 8 months away. They can always get a few extra classes of 40's going in the spring that would cover any crazy growth.

Motch