My Guess. United buying 757 replacement.
#1
My Guess. United buying 757 replacement.
So never one to shy away from taking a chance in public, I'm gonna go way out there and predict United is set to announce a purchase of a Boeing 757 replacement aircraft sometime in the next few quarters. I base this guess on the following information:
Boeing "Paper Plane" wins over skeptic as United takes peek
and now we have a Confidential Treatment Order from the SEC and the redacted 10Q says this:
Plenty of folks disagree and think I'm smokin' crack, but there it is . . . we shall see . . .
"What we've seen so far is very, very interesting to us," Andrew Levy, United's chief financial officer, said in an interview. "We certainly hope Boeing launches the airplane. We think there is a need for it."
Boeing "Paper Plane" wins over skeptic as United takes peek
United Continental Holdings has taken a close look at an all-new jetliner that Boeing engineers are developing for trans-Atlantic flying, and the airline likes what it sees. "What we've seen so far is very, very interesting to us," Andrew Levy, United's chief financial officer, said in an interview. "We certainly hope Boeing launches the airplane. We think there is a need for it."
An endorsement from United, a large Boeing customer, would go a long way toward making the business case for so-called middle-of-market jetliners. While the airplane concept exists only on paper so far, Boeing has honed the design to seat between 225 and 260 passengers and worked to bring production costs in line with prices that airlines would be willing to pay.
"I wouldn't be surprised if there is a decision to offer by this year," John Plueger, chief executive officer and co-founder of Air Lease Corp., said of the first step in Boeing's process to formally introduce a new plane. "That might be a bit early, a bit aggressive. But that would not surprise me."
An endorsement from United, a large Boeing customer, would go a long way toward making the business case for so-called middle-of-market jetliners. While the airplane concept exists only on paper so far, Boeing has honed the design to seat between 225 and 260 passengers and worked to bring production costs in line with prices that airlines would be willing to pay.
"I wouldn't be surprised if there is a decision to offer by this year," John Plueger, chief executive officer and co-founder of Air Lease Corp., said of the first step in Boeing's process to formally introduce a new plane. "That might be a bit early, a bit aggressive. But that would not surprise me."
and now we have a Confidential Treatment Order from the SEC and the redacted 10Q says this:
5.1.2. With respect to a mission *** commitment for the *** Aircraft: the parties agree that the *** Aircraft will have *** Aircraft *** mission ***commitment specified Section 2.1.5 of the Attachment to Letter Agreement UAL-PA-03784-LA1601973R1 entitled “Aircraft *** – Firm *** Aircraft and *** Aircraft” when configured with a similar seat count, configuration options, and using the same mission conditions, e.g., *** mission with a *** payload. Suchcomparison will use specifically defined standard assumptions, conditions, *** rules and ***. The parties agree that this Section 5.1.2 commitment will besuperseded once Boeing provides Customer with *** for the *** Aircraft
#2
Wouldn't surprise me, either.
What did surprise me: Wikipedia (I know, consider the source) says it wouldn't enter revenue service until 2025 or later.
Too late for me. Better question: too late for United/Boeing? It makes me think we might want something sooner, like A321NEO/LR. Supposedly 24% cheaper than the 757, and available in about a year.
So...maybe the A350 turns into long-range 321s?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_of_the_market
What did surprise me: Wikipedia (I know, consider the source) says it wouldn't enter revenue service until 2025 or later.
Too late for me. Better question: too late for United/Boeing? It makes me think we might want something sooner, like A321NEO/LR. Supposedly 24% cheaper than the 757, and available in about a year.
So...maybe the A350 turns into long-range 321s?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_of_the_market
#4
Wouldn't surprise me, either.
What did surprise me: Wikipedia (I know, consider the source) says it wouldn't enter revenue service until 2025 or later.
Too late for me. Better question: too late for United/Boeing? It makes me think we might want something sooner, like A321NEO/LR. Supposedly 24% cheaper than the 757, and available in about a year.
So...maybe the A350 turns into long-range 321s?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_of_the_market
What did surprise me: Wikipedia (I know, consider the source) says it wouldn't enter revenue service until 2025 or later.
Too late for me. Better question: too late for United/Boeing? It makes me think we might want something sooner, like A321NEO/LR. Supposedly 24% cheaper than the 757, and available in about a year.
So...maybe the A350 turns into long-range 321s?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_of_the_market
Well, I read the 10Q redacted information and it is entirely a new order replacing an old order all with Boeing and in that order it discusses MAX 9 and MAX 10 AND an unnamed aircraft with the mission defined in redacted stars above.
It seems pretty obvious to me what it all means, and I'm just surprised others don't see it. If a year goes by with no announcement of United buying a Boeing 757 replacement I'll be the first to admit I was wrong, but for now looks to me like a darn good bet that's what's going on.
#5
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: SFO Guppy CA
Posts: 1,112
Wouldn't surprise me, either.
What did surprise me: Wikipedia (I know, consider the source) says it wouldn't enter revenue service until 2025 or later.
Too late for me. Better question: too late for United/Boeing? It makes me think we might want something sooner, like A321NEO/LR. Supposedly 24% cheaper than the 757, and available in about a year.
So...maybe the A350 turns into long-range 321s?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_of_the_market
What did surprise me: Wikipedia (I know, consider the source) says it wouldn't enter revenue service until 2025 or later.
Too late for me. Better question: too late for United/Boeing? It makes me think we might want something sooner, like A321NEO/LR. Supposedly 24% cheaper than the 757, and available in about a year.
So...maybe the A350 turns into long-range 321s?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_of_the_market
#6
There's a longer-ranged 321 NEO in the works, supposedly with 100nm MORE range than the 757.
757's big limitation is westbound over the Atlantic when winds are strong. Not sure if 100nm makes a big difference...but maybe.
757's big limitation is westbound over the Atlantic when winds are strong. Not sure if 100nm makes a big difference...but maybe.
#7
Let's see. I'm a pilot. I fly planes. I like flying new planes. I retire in 14 years, and Boeing says they'd shoot for 2025 as the target date meaning I could get 8 years as a captain on this new plane PLUS it would likely imply that the 321NEO is not an option and the 756 fleet will have a good 5 year run before it sees any further sign of shrinkage.
#8
The 757 is 35 years old, of course there will be a follow-on replacement aircraft to assume the 757's mission. To link that fact to a redacted 10Q is mental masterbation. If it makes you feel better, whack away brotha.
I'd guess that many pilots feel that the announcement of a follow-on aircraft doesn't mean jack until the bids are out.
#10
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2013
Posts: 2,159
I thought (based on our management's thinking) is that the 737xyz or whatever they are calling the new guppy is the logical replacement to the 757.
The 757 is a beautiful plane. great job, great mission. Love to see Boeing update and open up the line to the 757.
I wonder what is the problem with updating the 757 from Boeing??
The 757 is a beautiful plane. great job, great mission. Love to see Boeing update and open up the line to the 757.
I wonder what is the problem with updating the 757 from Boeing??
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