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My Guess. United buying 757 replacement.

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Old 08-10-2017, 01:15 PM
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Default My Guess. United buying 757 replacement.

So never one to shy away from taking a chance in public, I'm gonna go way out there and predict United is set to announce a purchase of a Boeing 757 replacement aircraft sometime in the next few quarters. I base this guess on the following information:

"What we've seen so far is very, very interesting to us," Andrew Levy, United's chief financial officer, said in an interview. "We certainly hope Boeing launches the airplane. We think there is a need for it."


Boeing "Paper Plane" wins over skeptic as United takes peek


United Continental Holdings has taken a close look at an all-new jetliner that Boeing engineers are developing for trans-Atlantic flying, and the airline likes what it sees. "What we've seen so far is very, very interesting to us," Andrew Levy, United's chief financial officer, said in an interview. "We certainly hope Boeing launches the airplane. We think there is a need for it."


An endorsement from United, a large Boeing customer, would go a long way toward making the business case for so-called middle-of-market jetliners. While the airplane concept exists only on paper so far, Boeing has honed the design to seat between 225 and 260 passengers and worked to bring production costs in line with prices that airlines would be willing to pay.


"I wouldn't be surprised if there is a decision to offer by this year," John Plueger, chief executive officer and co-founder of Air Lease Corp., said of the first step in Boeing's process to formally introduce a new plane. "That might be a bit early, a bit aggressive. But that would not surprise me."


and now we have a Confidential Treatment Order from the SEC and the redacted 10Q says this:

5.1.2. With respect to a mission *** commitment for the *** Aircraft: the parties agree that the *** Aircraft will have *** Aircraft *** mission ***commitment specified Section 2.1.5 of the Attachment to Letter Agreement UAL-PA-03784-LA1601973R1 entitled “Aircraft *** – Firm *** Aircraft and *** Aircraft” when configured with a similar seat count, configuration options, and using the same mission conditions, e.g., *** mission with a *** payload. Suchcomparison will use specifically defined standard assumptions, conditions, *** rules and ***. The parties agree that this Section 5.1.2 commitment will besuperseded once Boeing provides Customer with *** for the *** Aircraft
Plenty of folks disagree and think I'm smokin' crack, but there it is . . . we shall see . . .
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Old 08-10-2017, 01:27 PM
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Wouldn't surprise me, either.

What did surprise me: Wikipedia (I know, consider the source) says it wouldn't enter revenue service until 2025 or later.

Too late for me. Better question: too late for United/Boeing? It makes me think we might want something sooner, like A321NEO/LR. Supposedly 24% cheaper than the 757, and available in about a year.

So...maybe the A350 turns into long-range 321s?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_of_the_market
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Old 08-10-2017, 01:34 PM
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Who cares? Airplane won't see air under its wheels for 10 years anyway at least.
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Old 08-10-2017, 01:39 PM
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Originally Posted by UAL T38 Phlyer View Post
Wouldn't surprise me, either.

What did surprise me: Wikipedia (I know, consider the source) says it wouldn't enter revenue service until 2025 or later.

Too late for me. Better question: too late for United/Boeing? It makes me think we might want something sooner, like A321NEO/LR. Supposedly 24% cheaper than the 757, and available in about a year.

So...maybe the A350 turns into long-range 321s?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_of_the_market
Honestly, I'm a little surprised at the comments I'm getting back. I started the same thread on that "other" forum and the response is much the same. Folks agree we'll get a 757 replacement, but don't think the CT or the 10Q mean it's happening now.

Well, I read the 10Q redacted information and it is entirely a new order replacing an old order all with Boeing and in that order it discusses MAX 9 and MAX 10 AND an unnamed aircraft with the mission defined in redacted stars above.

It seems pretty obvious to me what it all means, and I'm just surprised others don't see it. If a year goes by with no announcement of United buying a Boeing 757 replacement I'll be the first to admit I was wrong, but for now looks to me like a darn good bet that's what's going on.
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Old 08-10-2017, 01:54 PM
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Originally Posted by UAL T38 Phlyer View Post
Wouldn't surprise me, either.

What did surprise me: Wikipedia (I know, consider the source) says it wouldn't enter revenue service until 2025 or later.

Too late for me. Better question: too late for United/Boeing? It makes me think we might want something sooner, like A321NEO/LR. Supposedly 24% cheaper than the 757, and available in about a year.

So...maybe the A350 turns into long-range 321s?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_of_the_market
That's all fine and good that they claim that it costs less than a 757 to operate, but it can only do about 95% of the mission of a 757.
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Old 08-10-2017, 02:10 PM
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There's a longer-ranged 321 NEO in the works, supposedly with 100nm MORE range than the 757.

757's big limitation is westbound over the Atlantic when winds are strong. Not sure if 100nm makes a big difference...but maybe.
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Old 08-10-2017, 05:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Grumble View Post
Who cares? Airplane won't see air under its wheels for 10 years anyway at least.
Are all humans negative all the time? Why does the internet seem to bring out nothing but negativity?

Let's see. I'm a pilot. I fly planes. I like flying new planes. I retire in 14 years, and Boeing says they'd shoot for 2025 as the target date meaning I could get 8 years as a captain on this new plane PLUS it would likely imply that the 321NEO is not an option and the 756 fleet will have a good 5 year run before it sees any further sign of shrinkage.
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Old 08-10-2017, 05:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Sunvox View Post
I'm gonna go way out there and predict United is set to announce a purchase of a Boeing 757 replacement aircraft
Originally Posted by Sunvox View Post
Honestly, I'm a little surprised at the comments I'm getting back.
Could the collective eye-roll be a predictable reaction to posting a Master of the Obvious thread?

The 757 is 35 years old, of course there will be a follow-on replacement aircraft to assume the 757's mission. To link that fact to a redacted 10Q is mental masterbation. If it makes you feel better, whack away brotha.

I'd guess that many pilots feel that the announcement of a follow-on aircraft doesn't mean jack until the bids are out.
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Old 08-10-2017, 05:25 PM
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Ok I'll Put an end to all the negativity. You're correct. Expect an announcement in the 4th quarter.
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Old 08-10-2017, 07:55 PM
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I thought (based on our management's thinking) is that the 737xyz or whatever they are calling the new guppy is the logical replacement to the 757.

The 757 is a beautiful plane. great job, great mission. Love to see Boeing update and open up the line to the 757.

I wonder what is the problem with updating the 757 from Boeing??
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