Maddogdvr

Just want to gather some thoughts on a crucial decision I’m about to make, only well intentioned responses much appreciated.
40 years old, 3rd year pay at B6, drive to work, live in south FL.
UAL CJO waiting for class, a bit concerned about next years economy outlook as I make the jump to UAL. I know It’s hard to predict anything at this point, just a few words from the wise I know some are in this forum...thank you and happy holidays!

cadetdrivr

Nothing is ever absolute, but barring a SEVERE economic shock (think 9/11) the current retirements provide a nice cushion for new-hires.
UA would simply have to slow hiring if the company decided to contract during a downturn.

IMHO, it could actually be more "interesting" at B6 without the cushion of significant retirements and an industry landscape far different than during the last recession.

Excargodog

What's your priority? If it's living in base in South Florida, you've got that. You are unlikely to see that again with United for years. If you wouldn't mind uprooting the family to move to wherever United wants you (or commuting to SFO) then United is a better gig.

As far as the future economy, well, United is unlikely to ask you a second time if you turn them down now.

awax

In a severe recession where would you rather be? In a prolonged downturn, compare the balance sheets and retirements at both carriers and make the call. If things get really bad, I’d guess furloughs are possible on both properties.

NotMrNiceGuy

Outsider looking in...

First off, bear market only refers to the NYSE. It’s just a collection of investors and what they “think” is going to happen over the next few quarters. Anything based off of people’s thoughts is going to be volatile by nature. In the same vein, there is talk of a recession...two straight quarters of negative GDP. That could be called six months from now, but current economic fundamentals are a far cry from that. Turn down the hype. UAL is headed in the right direction, and from what I’ve read, they need another years supply to fill up vacancies. If you have a CJO, that’s nearly 1,000 below you. Don’t let a worse case scenario fear keep you from something great. I guess that’s my main point.

Other points to consider:
No SE hub for UAL. Driving to work is fantastic, but I think the career earnings could be worth the commute.

UAL is here to stay. B6 doesn’t have near the staying power and will likely be in the next round of consolidation. I’ve been apart of that process, and it isn’t exactly stress free.

Good luck in your decision.

Excargodog

That card plays both ways though. If there ARE furloughs, who is at most risk, a fourth year FO at B6 or a probationer at UAL?

NoDeskJob

I was at B6, and left for a legacy.

If you are tied to south FL, for example because your wife is a partner at a law firm or medical practice, etc..., I would stay at B6.

If you aren’t tied to S FL, I would go to United. Either commute or rent in a domicile till you all figure out which city you want to live in.

It’s so nice to have airplanes bigger than a 321. Even if long haul international isn’t your thing, other guys love it (and the pay rate), thus giving you better seniority on NB at United.

Aquaticus

I came from B6 and it ultimately comes down to your own desires. You are looking at a captain seat in 3 more years in Florida by my guess with zero income tax and cheap living. If the wife has a good job down there I would stay. This place is night and day from JetBlue as a pilot in so many ways. The attitude towards you as a professional is head and shoulders above anything you will ever see at B6.

STXDrew

Tough decision. I was at Spirit looking at an upgrade in 2015 and made the jump to United and never looked back. Best decision I’ve made for me and my family.

Our Senior management has stated that it can start parking aircraft off leases “in double digit figures” starting 2020. Scott Kirby has made it very clear that he wants a more flexible fleet during downturns. In that same statement they do not want to defer any current aircraft acquisition as we need to update our fleet. Kirby also wants to cut down fleet types at United.

IMO (for what it’s worth) I can see UAL start parking leased buses and eleiminating a fleet type over the course of several years. We have many 737 max 9/10s on order. We have a lot of old 767 and 757 that they want to replace with other aircraft as well.

My prediction (worst case senario!) is that UAL would halt hiring for x amount of years while they park aircraft and retirements naturally downsize the airline.

Good news is:
-we have a much leaner company that can actually handle downturns these days
-cheap oil
-high travel demand
-retirements ramping up more and more every year

rightside02

I also made the jump nearly 2 years ago , could have held Left seat Airbus when I left . Don’t regret it for a second.

Feel free to PM me and I ll answer any questions you may have from a guy that was in your shoes not long ago.