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Old 02-07-2020 | 02:56 PM
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Default Watch for mass early outs in June

I was speaking with a retirement specialist at the benefits center today about our lump sum calculation. The new rates will be posted at the end of March, to take effect July1. They’ve heard to expect a rate increase, which will reduce the lump sum for anyone retiring this year after June 30.

No one knows what the rates will be, however based on historical averages it cuts my lump sum by about 100k. Don’t think I’ll fly for free those last few months.

Someone with an old seniority list with birthdates could make a guess at how many this might affect.
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Old 02-07-2020 | 03:43 PM
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Consider my breath bated.
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Old 02-07-2020 | 05:28 PM
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Fearless guess: this will result in less than 10 “early” retirements for astute pilots

Reasons:

1) Only ex-CAL pilots are involved

2) The year will be half over by June 30 for 2020 retirements

3) Many pilots will consider the math but keep flying anyway

4) Many pilots have no idea what effect rates have on lump sum

5) Many pilots in reasons #3 and #4 will also retire with several hundred hours of sick time
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Old 02-07-2020 | 05:37 PM
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Originally Posted by cadetdrivr
Fearless guess: this will result in less than 10 “early” retirements for astute pilots

Reasons:

1) Only ex-CAL pilots are involved

2) The year will be half over by June 30 for 2020 retirements

3) Many pilots will consider the math but keep flying anyway

4) Many pilots have no idea what effect rates have on lump sum

5) Many pilots in reasons #3 and #4 will also retire with several hundred hours of sick time
Five for five.
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Old 02-07-2020 | 05:45 PM
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Originally Posted by cadetdrivr
Fearless guess: this will result in less than 10 “early” retirements for astute pilots



Reasons:



1) Only ex-CAL pilots are involved



2) The year will be half over by June 30 for 2020 retirements



3) Many pilots will consider the math but keep flying anyway



4) Many pilots have no idea what effect rates have on lump sum



5) Many pilots in reasons #3 and #4 will also retire with several hundred hours of sick time

This is expert analysis.
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Old 02-07-2020 | 06:05 PM
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LOL! Considering how many fools stay till the bloody end with a full sick bank, 100k isn’t gonna get a majority of these people to leave.
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Old 02-07-2020 | 06:12 PM
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I have no idea what you’re talking about.
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Old 02-07-2020 | 07:23 PM
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The scabs will stay because they have nothing else.

Chuck will stay because he’s all in on gold

1% don’t know what a % rate is.

85% of 9/10 of us don’t have a pension

I bet my seniority doesn’t change.
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Old 02-08-2020 | 03:16 AM
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Originally Posted by jdt30
The scabs will stay because they have nothing else.

Chuck will stay because he’s all in on gold

1% don’t know what a % rate is.

85% of 9/10 of us don’t have a pension

I bet my seniority doesn’t change.
A certain percentage will also stay because “age 67 is right around the corner.”
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Old 02-08-2020 | 06:55 AM
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That list is dead on for the CAL folks I've met. The ones with any financial savvy have already departed. The remainder are hand to mouth, spending money like there is no tomorrow and absolutely ignorant of anything that might affect them.

And they are fiercely proud of their sick bank. The company has been good to them, allowing them to wear their cowboy boots to work, so they're going to donate several hundred thousand dollars to their employer to show their appreciation.

And if they could sell their seniority number to some pilot mill kid for a hundred bucks, they would. And stick you with the van tip.
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