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Andy 02-25-2020 04:46 AM


Originally Posted by Intrdmnslalien (Post 2983485)
I think the most logical way to look at it is hope for the best but plan for the worst. If the virus isn't as bad as the hype, then great, if it's as bad or worse, you at least have a plan which can be modified to deal with it.

That's always prudent.

IATA is estimating a .6% decline in international air travel in 2020, revised downward from a 4.1% increase previously forecast. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/20/coro...ince-2009.html

Should the bottom 10% of the list have furlough plans? Definitely.
Should those more senior have plans to be surplused down to a lesser paying seat with pay at say 75 hrs/mo? Definitely.
Bottom line: live below your means as an airline pilot. At all times. You never know what's going to happen in the future.

Andy 02-25-2020 05:01 AM


Originally Posted by nludy (Post 2983507)
This virus is incredibly serious and could potentially effect all of us. As of right now it there are no signs of it being under control so all we can do is hope for the best. It is totally possible that there are 100s of cases in the US already due to the long incubation period and the huge amount of international air travel coming into our country.

You want some scare porn? Read this: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...accine/607000/
Here's an even bigger killer than Coronavirus: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...cdc/ar-BBZTLLN

There are many things scarier/more deadly than Coronavirus.

nludy 02-25-2020 05:05 AM

Why is that scare porn? It's called logic and science. Maybe spend less time on APC and do some actual research on the virus.
Comparing Covid-19 to the season flu shows how little you know.

Andy 02-25-2020 05:19 AM


Originally Posted by nludy (Post 2983519)
Why is that scare porn? It's called logic and science. Maybe spend less time on APC and do some actual research on the virus.
Comparing Covid-19 to the season flu shows how little you know.

Thanks professor. It was a comparison of number of mortalities - you know, actual numbers rather than dreaming up doomsday scenarios. I guess it's better for some to run around yelling, 'the sky is falling.'

God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
Courage to change the things I can,
And wisdom to know the difference.

What one can do is plan for the worse. And then stop running around spreading fear.

Intrdmnslalien 02-25-2020 05:27 AM


Originally Posted by nludy (Post 2983507)
This virus is incredibly serious and could potentially effect all of us. As of right now it there are no signs of it being under control so all we can do is hope for the best. It is totally possible that there are 100s of cases in the US already due to the long incubation period and the huge amount of international air travel coming into our country.

Plus do you really trust the information coming out of China? The communist government says so, it must be true, they would never hide anything.

nludy 02-25-2020 05:28 AM

The mortality rate for the seasonal flu is .05% and Covid-19 is 2-3%.

Andy 02-25-2020 05:45 AM


Originally Posted by nludy (Post 2983541)
The mortality rate for the seasonal flu is .05% and Covid-19 is 2-3%.

You're correct; I was just about to edit that. Meant to write number of mortalities.
The mortality number is running ~2% at the moment. Let's see how things progress once there are vaccines out there.

AntiPeter 02-25-2020 05:51 AM

What’s interesting is quarantine and reduction
in global travel does not seem to stop the spread, yet that is exactly what people are doing.

The response doesn’t seem to be rational.

The amount of new cases in China is declining, and of course western society can not lock down cities with millions like an autocratic regime can.

Furlough? Hope not. Non-rev first class with no stress? Yes!!!

Also, the mortality rate varies significantly based on health, gender and age. Men are more likely to die, but younger healthy men are at a very low risk.

I find it odd how in the 21st century it’s difficult for most, including the media and those educated, to interpret data and science and act rationally. Such is the human condition I suppose.

The most ill I ever was happened in the sunshine of a resort and a nasty parasite. Yet I go back every year.

Perhaps we will know more in a couple months? It seems as though typically these viruses begin to die out in the Spring as immunity increases and ease of transmission decreases with warmer weather.

Seems like a lot of irrational hype now. But of course irrational hype effects business and careers.

nludy 02-25-2020 06:01 AM

Hopefully this thing just blows over and there isn't a huge outbreak like some of these other countries. I did see something interesting and a bit concerning yesterday was that the CDC has only tested 400-500 people for the virus here, but South Korea for example has tested around 20,000. So we really don't know the real numbers here in the US yet.

Even if there is a temporary slow down with the airlines I would imagine with the pilot shortage it shouldn't effect us too much long term.

Andy 02-25-2020 06:02 AM


Originally Posted by AntiPeter (Post 2983556)
Also, the mortality rate varies significantly based on health, gender and age. Men are more likely to die, but younger healthy men are at a very low risk.

I find it odd how in the 21st century it’s difficult for most, including the media and those educated, to interpret data and science and act rationally. Such is the human condition I suppose.

Medical facilities are likely better in many parts of the world than in Wuhan city. And the entire world's medical community is now on red alert.

As for the human condition, I think that mankind always needs something to worry about and blow it out of proportion. Take climate change as the latest iteration of mass concern.


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