Tool? Sorry. Just trying to see what the word is (especially as it related to the context of that Kirby comment), and trying to compare notes and be educated across the industry. Sorry if that was toolish or offended anyone. Didn’t intend it to be that way.

 

Hypothetically... how would a junior pilot get out in front of this. In my opinion, the writing is on the walls for at least the bottom 1k. How does a junior pilot get ahead of all this... you can’t really apply to other airlines while you still work for another carrier. You wouldn’t get past the interview. “Yes I still work for (insert airline being furloughed from) but it’s you that i really want to work for”. What Pilot or HR person is going to buy that? Even if on a leave of absence, you still have ties to your ex-airline; they know you’re technically still employed by the ex, and you’re just going to leave to go back given the opportunity.

in my opinion you can’t do much until you’re actually furloughed and out a job.

 

No airline could shrink 90% and survive without Chapter 11. You can furlough 90%, which is nice, but you still have to pay all your creditors for the other 90%. No chance that can happen without court protection. Airport leases, aircraft leases/payments, debt payments, rent on property and equipment. Etc. Labor is only somewhere around 40% of an airlines cost at the moment with contract wages being high.

Honestly, I think the best option is Chapter 11, and the sooner the better. Borrowing 10's of billions to pay creditors while you bleed to death anyway is no future for any business. If you did survive you would be so saddled with debt, you are a zombie company anyway.

The Feds are paying the payroll through Sept 30. All bets are off after that.

 

Yep, I really think Southwest is the only one who wont need to file, they have an opportunity on the other side of this to own the domestic market for years.

 

traditionally cargo , ACMI especially was a refuge for furloughed pilots, pursuit is better done earlier, than later, if the writing is on the wall. God bless and speed you all.

 

This is all about cash preservation and time. The company will do everything in their power to drive the cash burn towards zero. Will they get to zero or do they need to get to zero? Probably not because they don't need to. The company needs to drive the cash burn to a level that allows them years, not months to operate. Company actions combined with increasing revenue will produce results. The million dollar question is when will revenue return? As with the stock market will it be V, U, or L shaped? Any amount of revenue return will reduce cash burn.

I'd imagine the goal is to position the airline to benefit from the recovery while allowing it enough time to wait for the recovery. At a current burn rate of $40M/day we have time when you consider cash on hand, assets, and other options. The actions taken by the company and incremental revenue increases will buy further time. Running to Bankruptcy court sooner, rather than later is not the best option at the moment.

Obtw, labor is 33% of the airline's operating expense with contract wages being past due at market rates set years ago. Don't mess with my contract folks.

 

You can always apply. In the current environment there might an operator who knows they’re taking furloughs, you're not going to stay, and they’re fine with that. Not every operator is trying to build a pride and joy outfit so they don’t even ask the "why do want to work here" or "what do you know about our company" since the honest answer isn’t "it’s always been my dream" and "you care about your team members" but rather "I need the money" and "you're hiring."

But might I suggest an alternative view. I’m done now but twenty years ago was unfamiliar with the downturns having come out of the military and after 9/11 I rode it out all way to the bottom and found out the hard way there might worse things than being furloughed. I bumped along the bottom on reserve, was displaced to another base, commuted to reserve, fell off the bottom of the list, training cycle at another carrier, on reserve, recalled, training cycle, commuted to reserve, and finally got back home after 3+ years. If you have a young family that is brutal, for them and for you, and may having lasting effects on everyone.

As it began I applied for a job at Target to stock shelves and they called me to interview. I often wish I had gone on the offered leave of absence, taken that job to pay the bills, and just bypassed all the drama. What we have the privilege to have that few others have is a union and a spot on a seniority list for the only job we'll ever want. Everyone will get recalled at some point. But between today’s displacement and that recall a life will be lived, and the choice of which one that will be is important, and an exceedingly difficult one to make.

As the disclaimer says, past performance doesn’t indicate future results.

 

The economy needs another 15% to be back at it's peak. All of the talk about not being a V shaped recovery is now wrong. April was the best month on the S&P since 1987. Some industries are lagging because of very direct impacts to their business. But, Anybody who's been paying attention and investing is back to even or close. People are dying to get out and travel. The parks and beaches are full and people are sick of this stupidity. As soon as the world opens its doors, we'll be back in action. I'm not ruling out furlough but for the same reason we had to merge so as not to get marginalized, we can't go down too much as we'd have no pricing power anywhere. I also think the US government will do a round 2 if need be. Here's the chart of the S&P below.

That being said. If they do furlough, we have a responsibility to not give ANY concessions. Make sure that people have an even stronger contract and pilot group to return to. As an 11,000 pilot airline, it'd cost about 545/month for each pilot to donate and keep $3000/month coming into 2000 pilots homes. I'm in.

 

The stock market is not the economy.

 

might be premature to say everyone will get recalled. Company has to survive first and then get back to its current size. After hearing the call yesterday for the first time i sincerely worry if the company will survive this. Especially if there are resurgences of COvID. Full pay all the way!