Is this still true that there is guaranteed not to be larger number of furloughs? It seems at least 1,000 - 2,000 will come off the list. Don't want to "fear monger" but what math are people using that says all the pilots on the list are needed...

 

nothing is guaranteed first of all and no one knows a number it’s all a guess. However you have to take retirements into account. If you furlough 4000 for three years then you have to add in 1500 retirements so in reality you just dropped the pilot count by 5500. If they want 4000 down for 3 years then they need to furlough 2500 and let retirements happen.

the other course would be to furlough 4000 right now and call back as retirements happen a lot of unnecessary training.

who the hell knows.....I can tell you that the 4500 displacements don’t equal 4500 furloughs and that is obvious based off the min max table

 

There has never been any guarantee. One of life’s greatest fears is the unknown. Pilots have learned to identify risks and attempt to account for variables to control the destiny of our mission, but in this important area we cannot control or even quantify the variables. This forum is a subset of pilots especially motivated to seek out like-minded folks to attempt to get more information...to make the unknown, known...to reduce our fears, or perhaps our misery (it loves company, right?). At the end of the day, all we are doing is speculating and then venting, and there’s actually some good that comes from it. Do we realize this as a form of therapy? Hopefully, we can offer each other support and healthy advice and minimize the hostility (politics or otherwise “taking sides”) as that is what most of us really want and need.

If you can return to active mil, do it.
If you are in the bottom 1000-2000, the job market will only get more competitive going forward. Act as if you already have your notice and divert NOW before you are min fuel and back in the pack headed for the same alternate. Take a COLA if you find a job.
Use this chance to reinvent your career with school and/or pursue something completely different that you can perhaps continue alongside a piloting job when you get recalled.
Focus on your family and anticipate the stress to your relationships. Use SOAR / seek counseling sooner than later.
Cut the older, senior pilots a little slack WRT sensitivity as many don’t have the years or options to begin another career.
The seniority-based nature of this job makes it especially unequal / unfair during downturns...it is almost impossible to spread the pain without cratering our contract and ruining the very job we want to keep. It has been pointed out, and I concur, that in previous drops, QOL was worse as a junior pilot on the list than it was on furlough.
The company talking points have rested on 30% reductions for now...not necessarily pilot furloughs, but that is the current “bogey.” There are too many variables to make educated guesses IMO, but if we stay on the current glidepath, I’m understanding that we will be ~70% in a year.
This too shall pass.

Stay safe, stay healthy, stay sane.
D

 

Sorry, not following. How is it "obvious from the min/max?" The current Active pilots is exactly 4,457 more than the Min/Max number. So, how can you tell that isn't their furlough target number? Thanks. I'm a little over 4,000 from the bottom so I could go either way in this.

Thanks.

 

I'm not sure but I believe the company can manipulate the MIN/Max numbers as they see fit without regard to actual numbers needed in the operation. In this instance I believe they "sharp shot" the numbers to maximize the amount of people going to the lowest paid category. I also believe that those number are static (or a snapshot in time) and don't take into account UPA requirements, retirements, early outs etc.

signed 320 CA (soon to be guppy FO) maybe.

 

shock and awe

 

Because this displacement is artificial. It is designed to keep people from bumping for multiple rounds. Our contract doesn’t allow a “flush bid” but this gives them something very close to that. They aren’t saying this is going to be the size of the airline, but they just didn’t want people displacing for months on end to get to where they could finally train some guppy and Airbus FOs.

They’d rather have more people getting paid Airbus FO and Guppy FO than CA on any plane as well as WB FO. This is not because they are going to furlough 3,000 pilots. This is because they are trying to reduce payroll and maximize short-term training. This also gives them flexibility to “bounce back” since they just have to cancel some displacements or have an outright vacancy bid in the fall, since we won’t be grandfathered anymore.

All those junior WB FO and NB CA actually cause a problem for the company during a displacement, and they just figured out how to get around it within the contract.

 

I really think the way the contract handles upgrade and displacement pay is crap!!
I completed B777 training in Feb, waited 5 weeks for IOE, then got the notice in April that I'm giving back almost $1500 pay difference from those 5 weeks. It's not my fault I couldn't get on an IOE flight.

So, why won't my new (lower pay) pay rate when getting displaced not begin until starting IOE in my next fleet?

They getcha coming and going...
(The point is moot for me since I'll be the first out the door in Oct, but it should be looked at.)

 

How were you notified?

 

Absolutely 100% true. Stay safe sane and healthy friends