Originally Posted by rp2pilot

As bad as they seem right now, there are rays of hope .. Last week, TSA reports the number of screened passengers increased to it's highest point since March 30th.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyl...se-coronavirus

Originally Posted by crewjuice

I have to admit, I’ve been reading these posts for a while, but have never commented on anything. My husband is a 737 FO in ORD. Around 4,000 seniority. I was hoping for the best, but after the displacement announcement today, I just opened up a bottle of wine and cried. We have two kids to think of, and I’m currently a SAHM. I have a RN license but haven’t worked in 4 years, so I’m a bit rusty, but at least we have that to fall back on. We have about a year’s worth of living expenses in savings, but I’m worried that won’t be enough to get us by for the duration of the furlough, and I really don’t want to deplete our savings account. I’m already talking to my husband about selling the house and downsizing, pulling our kids out of sports, etc., but he says I’m overreacting, and he doesn’t want to traumatize our kids. He doesn’t think all of these furloughs will happen at once. I’m praying for all of you, and I hope we all make it through this horrific time. Stay healthy and safe.

Originally Posted by SteelerNation

So my limited understanding of these displacements means that in short order over 4000 pilots will be on the street. Me personally, since I’m around the 4000 number was expecting this to take awhile to hit me. I guess my assumptions were wrong. Oh well. Philippians 4:6-7 seems appropriate but hard to do. Good luck everyone.

Originally Posted by ELAC321

You think chance of a furlough is similar to a V1 cut? There's wishful thinking and then there's this guy. Hoping for the best for all of you guys.

Originally Posted by SONORA PASS

I appreciate the positive thinking, but think it is important to understand that they absolutely can and might furlough 4000 in OCT.

Originally Posted by CLazarus

I do understand all that and am well prepared. If the economy stays completely prostrate I won't publicly guess where it will all end up. But, the folks who just look at today's displacement totals and simply assume that it equals total furloughs are getting way ahead of themselves. This is going to take some time to sort through.

That's why I think seeing the long term NB FO numbers after any subsequent displacement rounds is an important factor. For example, we started with about 4300 (incl 756 FO). Lets just randomly guess that NB flying is going to be down 25% next summer (so, we'd only need about 3225 NB FOs). After a couple of rounds of displacements if there are projected to be 5225 NB FOs... you can do the math. We have a lot old jets that are going to be retired and we have quite a few new jets coming to replace at least some of them. I'm not trying to blow sunshine where the sun doesn't shine, but there is more to this than the headline.

Originally Posted by Lewbronski

Southwest pilot here. First, super sorry for those numbers you guys just had laid on you. Sucks. And very sad.

I just posted this in the SWA section, but thought I'd post it here since it was mentioned.

Update to the TSA traveler throughput numbers. Traffic yesterday (Friday) increased by 38.9% vs the previous Friday. Traveler throughput follows a cyclical pattern by day of week with Friday usually being the biggest day of the week (at least since the start of the covid-19 crisis). Yesterday saw 171,563 travelers people processed by TSA. Last Friday, TSA handled 123,464.

What's sort of interesting about the numbers is that the first few days of this week averaged about a 20% increase in travelers over last week. The last two days were right at a 38% increase. Is that the beginning of an acceleration in the trend? Hard to tell with such a small sample size, but fingers crossed.

Here's a visualization of the data since Mar 29. Each line represents one week. The purple line is the current week. The blue line is the week of Mar 29. The yellow line is the low point: the week of April 12.

Attachment 5296

Originally Posted by whataclub

Out of curiosity for a non United guy, 4000-5000 pilots backs you up to about what hire date?

Originally Posted by Lewbronski

Southwest pilot here. ...

Here's a visualization of the data since Mar 29. Each line represents one week. The purple line is the current week. The blue line is the week of Mar 29. The yellow line is the low point: the week of April 12.

Attachment 5296