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Old 07-01-2020, 03:07 PM
  #11  
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Originally Posted by MasterOfPuppets View Post
what will be interesting is the percent in SEP. Right now it’s 40% of a summer schedule. September begins the winter schedule. So if you compare 2019 to 2020 we may be +60% without adding a single flight.

i don’t think it’s out of the question that we could be real close to a 70% WINTER schedule by OCT 1. Then if we carry that to summer and add for summer 2021 we could maintain a 70% SUMMER schedule.
which translates in a 30% smaller airline - just as the narrative has been from day one.
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Old 07-01-2020, 03:16 PM
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Originally Posted by MasterOfPuppets View Post
what will be interesting is the percent in SEP. Right now it’s 40% of a summer schedule. September begins the winter schedule. So if you compare 2019 to 2020 we may be +60% without adding a single flight.

i don’t think it’s out of the question that we could be real close to a 70% WINTER schedule by OCT 1. Then if we carry that to summer and add for summer 2021 we could maintain a 70% SUMMER schedule.
I would wager that if we were at 70% of capacity by winter, we would see higher numbers for summer 2021. Probably closer to 80 or 85%.

The big elephants in the room are
- an institutional reaction to unemployment/debt numbers
- A lack of market confidence in whichever mentally unfit individual wins in November
- or a large Covid flareup
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Old 07-01-2020, 08:22 PM
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Originally Posted by drywhitetoast View Post
swine flu 2021 is next :// thanks China
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Old 07-02-2020, 04:20 AM
  #14  
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Originally Posted by duvie View Post
I would wager that if we were at 70% of capacity by winter, we would see higher numbers for summer 2021. Probably closer to 80 or 85%.

The big elephants in the room are
- an institutional reaction to unemployment/debt numbers
- A lack of market confidence in whichever mentally unfit individual wins in November
- or a large Covid flareup
The BIGGEST elephant in the room is international operations. We are were the biggest player and our airline was pretty much centered around this. This is why we may be hurt/ing the worst. When the international operation is allowed to return (players outside United at work here) we will have a better chance to recover. Oh yeah ... and the passengers have to be willing to travel.

Tough times. Hang in there.
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Old 07-02-2020, 04:56 AM
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Originally Posted by Huell View Post
The BIGGEST elephant in the room is international operations. We are were the biggest player and our airline was pretty much centered around this. This is why we may be hurt/ing the worst. When the international operation is allowed to return (players outside United at work here) we will have a better chance to recover. Oh yeah ... and the passengers have to be willing to travel.

Tough times. Hang in there.
nothing says we can’t grow domestically and reclaim our share of that market. Just need to think differently, focus on INTL at a later date.
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Old 07-02-2020, 06:20 AM
  #16  
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Originally Posted by MasterOfPuppets View Post
Right now it’s 40% of a summer schedule. September begins the winter schedule. So if you compare 2019 to 2020 we may be +60% without adding a single flight.
I honestly think you’ll see a large draw down come fall. Leisure travelers who typically fly in the summer are making up a large percentage of our passengers right now. Business travel is all but gone right now. Fall/winter travel is typically dominated by business travelers except for the holidays. I think you’ll see a large draw down from mid-September to Thanksgiving due to lack of business travel.
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Old 07-02-2020, 06:34 AM
  #17  
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Originally Posted by Blackhawk View Post
I agree. Most flights right now will be short notice. Booked in a week or less from the departure date. My daughter recently went from DEN to ECP/VPS area on short notice (5 days). UAL wasn't an option on the travel dates.
Yeah. I’m a 1K and try to spend my travel bank on United whenever I can. I had $7,000 to spend to get to CDG on 30 June. Couldn’t get there on UAL. No flights to CDG out of any of the US hubs. Had to buy a ticket on that airline in Dallas.
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Old 07-02-2020, 08:19 AM
  #18  
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Originally Posted by MasterOfPuppets View Post
nothing says we can’t grow domestically and reclaim our share of that market. Just need to think differently, focus on INTL at a later date.
This is exactly what Scott Kirby has been wanting/trying to do, via scope relief and expansion of the UAX side of the house.
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Old 07-02-2020, 08:27 AM
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Originally Posted by Otterbox View Post
This is exactly what Scott Kirby has been wanting/trying to do, via scope relief and expansion of the UAX side of the house.
yeah well he can do it with the airplanes we are making payments on sitting in the sun.

tjis is exactly why he will lose act of god.
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Old 07-02-2020, 09:00 AM
  #20  
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Originally Posted by MasterOfPuppets View Post
nothing says we can’t grow domestically and reclaim our share of that market. Just need to think differently, focus on INTL at a later date.
I've been a passenger on your DEN - SFO trips on the 777. I don't see why United wouldn't at least try this. PR could push a social distancing on a big airplane narrative. Seems like it is worth a shot.

I at a different airline but don't want to see any other pilots on the street Oct 1. Good luck to all of us.
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