... unless traffic and revenues don't recover. I'm not ruling out a very slow recovery.

 

Bold statement.....

 

Just like Dougie Parker said airlines will never lose money again!? I’m betting on a very slow recovery with more furloughs in the spring. Hope I’m wrong.

 

it’s 4000 pilots to hit pre merger pilots. Add in 500 for early retirement plus another 500 for LOA...... (I think those are extremely conservative).... Thats 5000 pilots out the door before a pre merger pilot is even touched. Do you think this airline can survive with a schedule that low? Because I don’t if we send 5000+ pilots to the street we are done as a company.

 

FWIW, the investor call from this morning is posted online @ ir.united.com

One item that caught my attention was the fact that UAL still has an estimated $9B in unencumbered assets remaining after the current initiatives and the government loan. Recall that prior to the merger both UAL and CAL had virtually no unencumbered assets on the books (except the mileage programs). That means UAL generated a stunning amount of cash during the past decade when it both paid down debt and pushed $9B to the stockholders.

Strange there was no money for a pilot contract.....

 

That's another bold statement.
This company is very likely to survive even if it shrinks to 1/3 its current size or smaller. It's not about shrinking to profitability; it's about shrinking to stop the cash bleed. The company goes into survival mode and sheds as many expenses as possible. Perhaps even a visit to the man in the black dress. But I don't foresee the United as a likely outcome.
It sucks, but if the company needs a lot fewer widgets pilots for an extended period of time, the company will reduce the number of widgets furlough enough pilots to right size.

Another concern to me is Federal support post-election. If Biden wins and the Ds gain seats in the Senate, all this 'corporate welfare' will disappear and the Ds will blame any economic downturn on Trump's poor handling of the economy. I could just recycle one of the previous scripts they've used, changing minor details and it's updated to fit what's happening right now.

 

Not a cheery subject, but I don't know on that one...my Dad was an old TWA guy and he watched TWA shrink by more than half while remaining TWA. He ended up retiring as AA bought them up but I remember him talking about TWA going from 4000 pilots or so to 2000 pilots when AA came along. My uncles were both PSA pilots and they watched their company shrink by 40% until US Air took them over late 80s, early 90s. It may be a long process but there is historic precedent for a gradual and slow decline. Even the old stand alone UAL shrank around 35-40% from the 12,000 pilot (give or take 9/11 workforce) to the 8000 or so that ended up in the merger. My numbers may be off given memory. Not saying there will always be a UAL but it may take a while.

Other than healthcare, is there a good reason to go with the Plus version of the Voluntary Furlough? I asked on the other board and it was clear that there aren't many positives to the Plus from those folks.

 

Oh dear God ... I'm skerd now. If we don't re-elect pOTUS we are skrewed.

Bovine Secretions.

That would be like choosing between a clown and a LEADER.

I would rather have the LEADER.

 

hood post and just proves my point none of those companies exist anymore.

 

They're both corrupt clowns. There are no leaders running in 2020.

You're almost out the door anyway so none of it is going affect you.