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Food for thought...
If the MEC truly is representative of the pilot group, the final vote should be 81% FOR, 19% AGAINST. |
Originally Posted by Poss
(Post 3133263)
I guess I should be more specific. Scott should gamble with United's money, not mine. Don't fret for Mahogany Row.
Your career success and mine, are tied to the success of the company. Like I said, I’d rather Take a VF and downscale my life than work for the UAL of 2010. That’s a personal choice we all may get to make when furloughs go through. |
Originally Posted by Mudge
(Post 3133233)
Bingo is objective.. Market speculation is not.
0 + 2 ≠ 5 That is objective. But it is your choice in the end. |
Originally Posted by duvie
(Post 3133271)
Bottoms up,
I very much agree with your pessimism about the vaccine and/or therapeutic route. Your premise about economic recovery would be sound, if the aforementioned two things were the only route out of economic purgatory. I personally don’t think that is the case. This virus, although certainly more deadly than the common flu, has killed less than 1% of 1% of our population. I suspect there will come a point of economic pragmatism, where people go forward understanding that COVID-19 may be a part of their lives for years to come. Much like automobile top speed increasing and thus the death toll rising exponentially, corporations may be forced to face economic devastation (or reshaping, to be very optimistic) or return to business “as usual.“ whatever that means in 2021 if you had told the average American that the flu is going to be “twice as deadly this year,” I don’t think many would have really been that concerned (people like your wife notwithstanding). I don’t want to invoke the M-word here but the hysteria around this virus has certainly outpaced the actual threat. I believe with a little time, that will be seen by more and more people. Obviously 200,000 deaths is tragic, but if looked at in a historical perspective, this is a fairly small scale event that is having an outsized economic impact |
Originally Posted by Nucflash
(Post 3133296)
0 + 2 = 2
0 + 2 ≠ 5 That is objective. But it is your choice in the end. |
Originally Posted by dingdong
(Post 3133247)
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Originally Posted by Hedley
(Post 3133319)
If there is a recovery starting next year and our ability to react is slowed and opportunities are missed by having massive furloughs and a TX bottleneck, should the yes voters get bag tags that say don’t blame me, I voted yes? That is the gamble here. This isn’t about subsidizing pilots facing furlough, this is making a bet on the recovery and our ability to adapt. If you think that a vaccine or real recovery (>70% 2019 numbers) is years away, then vote no and let’s get busy furloughing over 1/3 of the list, have more displacements, and pray that we avoid bankruptcy. If you think that a vaccine will be available and travel restrictions lifted within the next year and that our numbers will be trending up, then vote yes. If the yes voters are wrong, and the numbers next summer are showing that recovery is years away, the company will announce massive furloughs, voiding the LOA, and we will be right we’re we would have been if this thing fails. If the no voters are wrong, we will have thousands on the street by then and our ability to react will be throttled by our ability to recall and train. If a vaccine isn’t found and this goes on for a couple of years, it’s all over anyway.
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Originally Posted by 130shadow
(Post 3133353)
Bag takes that say ”Don’t blame me“. Oh that’s priceless. What would you like the no voters tag to say? Remember, the company furloughs, not your co-workers.
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Originally Posted by Hedley
(Post 3133319)
If there is a recovery starting next year and our ability to react is slowed and opportunities are missed by having massive furloughs and a TX bottleneck, should the yes voters get bag tags that say don’t blame me, I voted yes? That is the gamble here. This isn’t about subsidizing pilots facing furlough, this is making a bet on the recovery and our ability to adapt. If you think that a vaccine or real recovery (>70% 2019 numbers) is years away, then vote no and let’s get busy furloughing over 1/3 of the list, have more displacements, and pray that we avoid bankruptcy. If you think that a vaccine will be available and travel restrictions lifted within the next year and that our numbers will be trending up, then vote yes. If the yes voters are wrong, and the numbers next summer are showing that recovery is years away, the company will announce massive furloughs, voiding the LOA, and we will be right we’re we would have been if this thing fails. If the no voters are wrong, we will have thousands on the street by then and our ability to react will be throttled by our ability to recall and train. If a vaccine isn’t found and this goes on for a couple of years, it’s all over anyway.
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Originally Posted by 130shadow
(Post 3133353)
Bag takes that say ”Don’t blame me“. Oh that’s priceless. What would you like the no voters tag to say? Remember, the company furloughs, not your co-workers.
On another note, exactly how do you see the next 12-24 months playing out if this doesn’t pass? Will the company just burn cash to keep surplus pilots around to maintain flexibility, will they furlough a few, or will they furlough the full 2,850 this year and keep rolling until we have right sized the company for that level of demand? When the industry recovers, will it recover slow enough to allow us to keep pace with recalls and vacancy bids, or will demand recover faster than we can train? How would dramatically shrinking the company facilitate a possible merger, and how would we come out if it were to happen? How will this affect contract negotiations when we eventually get back to that? The list of unknowns goes on and on. |
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