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Old 09-27-2020 | 03:23 PM
  #91  
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Originally Posted by Big5
Serious question: come May what are we going to do for our potential furloughs? Pandemic TA-2? How will be able to cut them loose then if we’re not prepared to do so now...and I’m not suggesting or advocating we chop them now.
If we furlough next June we will be bankrupt. Period end of story.
Old 09-27-2020 | 06:31 PM
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Originally Posted by MasterOfPuppets
If we furlough next June we will be bankrupt. Period end of story.
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This 100%
Old 09-27-2020 | 06:38 PM
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Originally Posted by MasterOfPuppets
If we furlough next June we will be bankrupt. Period end of story.
I’m the Master of Puppets with my 2500 posts...I am omniscient...
Old 09-27-2020 | 09:09 PM
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Originally Posted by MasterOfPuppets
If we furlough next June we will be bankrupt. Period end of story.
Bold statement. If that’s the case, why did the company negotiate for the ability to furlough 2000 and still keep the TA going? If what you say is true, the company could have just left that part out since bankruptcy triggers termination of the TA anyway. Am I missing something?
Old 09-28-2020 | 04:48 AM
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Originally Posted by vipereaglebus
Bold statement. If that’s the case, why did the company negotiate for the ability to furlough 2000 and still keep the TA going? If what you say is true, the company could have just left that part out since bankruptcy triggers termination of the TA anyway. Am I missing something?

No inside info, but my thoughts are the union wanted to prevent furloughs...a noble effort....and the company just said, “look, here is the pot of money we have for pilots until June. If you guys can figure out a way to prevent furloughs, we’re all ears.” Then the union dutifully went about cutting MPG to manage the company.
Old 09-28-2020 | 05:26 AM
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Originally Posted by HiPlaneDrifter
No inside info, but my thoughts are the union wanted to prevent furloughs...a noble effort....and the company just said, “look, here is the pot of money we have for pilots until June. If you guys can figure out a way to prevent furloughs, we’re all ears.” Then the union dutifully went about cutting MPG to manage the company.
I’m not saying you’re wrong, but I’d like to think the company is smarter than that.
Old 09-28-2020 | 07:24 AM
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Originally Posted by vipereaglebus
Bold statement. If that’s the case, why did the company negotiate for the ability to furlough 2000 and still keep the TA going? If what you say is true, the company could have just left that part out since bankruptcy triggers termination of the TA anyway. Am I missing something?
If the airline isn’t at a place by next summer that’s north of 70% of 2019 the company will only have a few months of cash left until they must go bankrupt. If next summer is a bust we won’t make it through next winter.
Old 09-28-2020 | 07:52 AM
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Originally Posted by MasterOfPuppets
If the airline isn’t at a place by next summer that’s north of 70% of 2019 the company will only have a few months of cash left until they must go bankrupt. If next summer is a bust we won’t make it through next winter.
I understand your point, but it doesn’t answer my question.
Old 09-28-2020 | 08:15 AM
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Originally Posted by MasterOfPuppets
If the airline isn’t at a place by next summer that’s north of 70% of 2019 the company will only have a few months of cash left until they must go bankrupt. If next summer is a bust we won’t make it through next winter.
That’s really some sound fundamental analysis. 70% of what? Revenue? LF? Block hours? Regardless even at our most recent qtr daily cash burn of $26 mil a day, that’s $.8bil a month. We have over $17bil on hand. We won’t be bankrupt in June. You realize the company can negotiate debt down outside bk? That’s most likely happening. We have cares 2 on the way - more cash. But hey - lets vote post haste and give them a handout.
Old 09-28-2020 | 08:25 AM
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Originally Posted by Big5
That’s really some sound fundamental analysis. 70% of what? Revenue? LF? Block hours? Regardless even at our most recent qtr daily cash burn of $26 mil a day, that’s $.8bil a month. We have over $17bil on hand. We won’t be bankrupt in June. You realize the company can negotiate debt down outside bk? That’s most likely happening. We have cares 2 on the way - more cash. But hey - lets vote post haste and give them a handout.
You are correct we won’t be bankrupt in June. HOWEVER if next summer is a bust and we can make any money then we will not survive through next winter. The company will need to stratigacky plan bankruptcy. Wwaiting until the last minute provides its own challenges.

come June the company will either furlough Zero or will furlough more than 2007. They won’t be looking to reduce cash burn or break even. They will be looking to start making money again. They will not carry dead weight. The TA 2007 number means very little in my opinion and was there to show the dire circumstances we face. I believe it’s sole pourpose was to scare up yes votes.

If CARES 2 happens then this TA doesn’t mean jack so why even stress about it?
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