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-   -   Prediction (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/united/131402-prediction.html)

Andy 10-20-2020 02:45 PM


Originally Posted by Oly2016 (Post 3147611)
How many times do we have to go through this? There ARE PAYCUTS in the LOA, the MEC just decided not to talk about them. That's why I was a NO vote.

Leaving the vacation factor at 2:20 in vacation months is a paycut, period. Please see my prior posts on this forum. I have shown the math in public.

I have November vacation time. It's paying 3:15 per day, just like the contract states. So that's false information; reread and post the section of the LOA you're referring to.

ElCaribe 10-20-2020 03:52 PM


Originally Posted by Andy (Post 3147473)
Your prediction is very unlikely to happen.

CARES 2 will likely pass by the end of January which extends no furloughs to Dec 2021.

A vaccine will likely start to be distributed before next June.

While the Coronavirus positivity rate is increasing slightly, it's not ramping up. Don't confuse the number of positives (which is all the news talks about) with historic positive numbers because testing has ramped up significantly.

On a personal note, are you an alcoholic or drug user? If so, please seek help. You rattle on, saying the same thing over and over - and the odds of any of that happening is very small.

Your first three sentences are pure conjecture and guesses based on no concrete evidence. The rest of your post is very true.

Big5 10-20-2020 04:13 PM


Originally Posted by Andy (Post 3147745)
I have November vacation time. It's paying 3:15 per day, just like the contract states. So that's false information; reread and post the section of the LOA you're referring to.

I believe he laid out a pretty solid case pre-vote. Of course your mind was already made up and no additional facts or inconvenient truths were going to prevent you from saving us....

Anyway here’s his point that’s well summarized which explains the pay cut related to vacation factor at 2:20.....

“2:20.

Why did the vacation credit stay at 2:20? Does anyone know where the 2:20 came from? It's 70 hour MPG divided by 30 days in the month, = 2:20.



That's where the pilots are paying for this agreement, 2:20.



A 60 hour MPG should have a vacation credit of 2:00 not 2:20 and so on. Why did it stay at 2:20? So how does/can affect you and how does it affect me? Good Question! So I looked back at my last vacation month and here is what I found out. I a senior narrowbody F/O.





My August 2020:



No days of work, 8 days off, 22 days of vacation, Vac add pay = 71:30, MPG = 18:40, Total pay =90:10



70 MPG - ( 22 days X 2:20) = 18:40



Any potential month of 2021 with 60 hour MPG:



No days of work, 8 days off, 22 days of vacation, Vac add pay = 71:30, MPG = 8:40, Total pay = 80:10



60 MPG - (22 days X 2:20) = 8:40



Vacation paid the same but my pay went down by 10 hours. How can that be? Is it magic? No, it's a function of MPG. That's a 10 hour pay cut, not a work reduction. Plain and simple. I am still working the same number of days (zero) and I haven't gained any days off. Does this TA affect the vacation you are due? NO. Can this TA affect how vacation is paid out? YES. Will it affect everyone? No. Will it affect you? Do your due diligence and find out.



Now I sent an email to TI yesterday about this and I heard back pretty quickly from a high up on the SSC who said yes I am correct and that I am in the 10% who actually understands how this works. Well, why not explain this to the 90% then? Today I got another email from a 2nd person on the SSC so I guess my email really hit a nerve. This person said yes it will affect you, and it will affect more people if this TA is passed. I don't know if you are one of those (generally speaking) but it might be worth it to try this math yourself at your projected MPG.



I believe UALALPA has strong tradition of helping out pilots not only on the UAL list but other displaced ALPA pilots. I was one of them. As a 727 FE I sat behind a number of ex-Eastern types who were happy to get this chance at United late in life, even though they may never make captain. I believe this MEC in keeping that tradition had great intentions of helping potential furloughees. But implications of this TA are not fully understood and to call the MPG factor on vacation pay "fake news" just exposes ignorance. Do your due diligence THEN vote.

And yes, realize yes some of us are taking paycuts NOT just "work reductions".

Best wishes to us all!”

Andy 10-20-2020 04:25 PM

Pull up November's line awards. Look for someone with vacation. They're being paid at 3:15 per day.

Big5 10-20-2020 04:28 PM


Originally Posted by Andy (Post 3147788)
Pull up November's line awards. Look for someone with vacation. They're being paid at 3:15 per day.

Did you read the post above or are you the one on drugs and not properly processing logic? It’s not an argument about vacation add pay paying 3:15. It’s the 2:20 factor they use in line values when building pbs. I can see why this ta was an easy sell to guys like you. Details didn’t matter....

Oly2016 10-20-2020 04:35 PM


Originally Posted by Andy (Post 3147745)
I have November vacation time. It's paying 3:15 per day, just like the contract states. So that's false information; reread and post the section of the LOA you're referring to.


I will be polite and just say you are wrong. I warned pilots on this forum about it before the vote. Yes vacation time "still pays 3:15 per day" but because the 2:20 vacation factor for a 70 hour MPG did not change, pay during a vacation month will go down with no change in number of days of work. Maybe not for all pilots, how many pilots I don't know. For me yes, because I understand the contract, sat down and ran the numbers. I would highly suggest you do the same. Maybe you wont see a paycut in your vacation month. That would be great - but then you can thank me for giving up 20 hours of pay for my two vacation months next year because it nails me.

I even brought it to the attention of the MEC and in an email reply they said "yes you are right" and basically most pilots don't understand how this vacation compensation works. They knew that pilots have a weak understanding of this section of our contract and boy was it exploited and kept quiet. Again, that's where we are paying for this LOA.

Run the numbers and let us know how it turns out. Everyone should, so we have a better understanding of this.

Oly2016 10-20-2020 04:44 PM


Originally Posted by Andy (Post 3147788)
Pull up November's line awards. Look for someone with vacation. They're being paid at 3:15 per day.


Yes my August line award showed 71:30 all of it vacation credit. However, my pay (because of MPG and 2:20) on my pay advice, without any flying, was for 90:17.

Next year it will show 80:17.

Friendly advice: stop digging.

Big5 10-20-2020 04:50 PM


Originally Posted by Oly2016 (Post 3147798)
Yes my August line award showed 71:30 all of it vacation credit. However, my pay (because of MPG and 2:20) on my pay advice, without any flying, was for 90:17.

Next year it will show 80:17.

Friendly advice: stop digging.

Oh they’ll keep digging. I’ll beat them to their retort. “But that’s only one month out of the year.” “10 hours...big deal.” “If you don’t like it you’re senior enough you can pick up a 20 hour trip and all’s well. You’ll be back at 90 hours.” And so on.

Sniper66 10-20-2020 05:29 PM


Originally Posted by Andy (Post 3147788)
Pull up November's line awards. Look for someone with vacation. They're being paid at 3:15 per day.




FYI
15 days vacation November 48.45 hours add pay
6 days reserve and 24.20 MPG for a total of 73 hours almost

25 days off and 6 reserve days out of 31 day month

Big5 10-20-2020 05:56 PM


Originally Posted by Sniper66 (Post 3147819)
FYI
15 days vacation November 48.45 hours add pay
6 days reserve and 24.20 MPG for a total of 73 hours almost

25 days off and 6 reserve days out of 31 day month

Reserve vs. line. 2 different calculations. Another example of the misunderstanding in how this all works. But hey - you got 25 days off with 73 hours of pay. Well done. This new LoA rocks!!!! Can’t wait ‘til we get to vote to extend it!!!

Andy 10-20-2020 05:57 PM


Originally Posted by Sniper66 (Post 3147819)
FYI
15 days vacation November 48.45 hours add pay
6 days reserve and 24.20 MPG for a total of 73 hours almost

25 days off and 6 reserve days out of 31 day month

I'm working 4 days in Nov with 2 vacation days. 30 credit hrs of flying. Pays 55 and change. I don't have a problem with that.

Some just don't understand that flying is 40% of pre-Covid.

Andy 10-20-2020 06:01 PM


Originally Posted by Big5 (Post 3147826)
Reserve vs. line. 2 different calculations. Another example of the misunderstanding in how this all works. But hey - you got 25 days off with 73 hours of pay. Well done. This new LoA rocks!!!! Can’t wait ‘til we get to vote to extend it!!!

You're having a problem dealing with the new Covid environment. It's famine time; the feast is over. For now.

The rules have changed and you don't seem to be able to adapt.

Big5 10-20-2020 06:34 PM


Originally Posted by Andy (Post 3147830)
You're having a problem dealing with the new Covid environment. It's famine time; the feast is over. For now.

The rules have changed and you don't seem to be able to adapt.

Puhhhhlease, have you seen the nov lines? Talk about out of wack. It’s full on feast on the 78. The Bus not so much.

Anything Upper group. They’ll feast also. Middle group they’ll get some scraps. Lower, nada. Yep WE, not Covid changed the rules and created our own feast or famine. To suggest this is covid is disingenuous.

How’s it going over at AA? DAL? sWa? Haven’t seen any of them split their pilot group in the name of covid.

Andy 10-20-2020 07:26 PM


Originally Posted by Big5 (Post 3147842)
Puhhhhlease, have you seen the nov lines? Talk about out of wack. It’s full on feast on the 78. The Bus not so much.

Anything Upper group. They’ll feast also. Middle group they’ll get some scraps. Lower, nada. Yep WE, not Covid changed the rules and created our own feast or famine. To suggest this is covid is disingenuous.

How’s it going over at AA? DAL? sWa? Haven’t seen any of them split their pilot group in the name of covid.

It didn't split the entire pilot group. There's just a few loud whiners. It doesn't matter if it's feast or famine; there will always be a few whiners like you.

Nucflash 10-20-2020 07:58 PM


Originally Posted by Big5 (Post 3147842)
Puhhhhlease, have you seen the nov lines? Talk about out of wack. It’s full on feast on the 78. The Bus not so much.

The 787 has a mission that is making money. I guess if you want you could call the cargo division and ask them to start turning down business because it’s not fair to you.

ufgatorpilot 10-20-2020 08:22 PM


Originally Posted by Knotcher (Post 3147695)
There are lots of tough talkers on here about how they will hold the line, but as soon as the furlough gun is pointed in their face they fall to their knees pleading for their job just like they did for this TA....sad but true.

I’d be curious to know how many “full pay ‘til the last day” people voted for the TA. :rolleyes:

okawner 10-20-2020 08:39 PM

The TA pays a lower MPG regardless of whether or not you have vacation in a given month...why is that so hard to understand? Why are people stuck on this vacation non-issue? Yes, you're getting paid less...surprise!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

Sniper66 10-20-2020 08:55 PM


Originally Posted by Big5 (Post 3147826)
Reserve vs. line. 2 different calculations. Another example of the misunderstanding in how this all works. But hey - you got 25 days off with 73 hours of pay. Well done. This new LoA rocks!!!! Can’t wait ‘til we get to vote to extend it!!!



it’s less than what it would have been, I agree.
however it’s a new era in case you have not noticed it .... we saved 3900 coworkers jobs and I am ok with that ...

try not to have a heart attack over this TA
LTD pays 96k per year

rvfanatic 10-21-2020 02:15 AM


Originally Posted by Big5 (Post 3147783)
I believe he laid out a pretty solid case pre-vote. Of course your mind was already made up and no additional facts or inconvenient truths were going to prevent you from saving us....

Anyway here’s his point that’s well summarized which explains the pay cut related to vacation factor at 2:20.....

“2:20.

Why did the vacation credit stay at 2:20? Does anyone know where the 2:20 came from? It's 70 hour MPG divided by 30 days in the month, = 2:20.



That's where the pilots are paying for this agreement, 2:20.



A 60 hour MPG should have a vacation credit of 2:00 not 2:20 and so on. Why did it stay at 2:20? So how does/can affect you and how does it affect me? Good Question! So I looked back at my last vacation month and here is what I found out. I a senior narrowbody F/O.





My August 2020:



No days of work, 8 days off, 22 days of vacation, Vac add pay = 71:30, MPG = 18:40, Total pay =90:10



70 MPG - ( 22 days X 2:20) = 18:40



Any potential month of 2021 with 60 hour MPG:



No days of work, 8 days off, 22 days of vacation, Vac add pay = 71:30, MPG = 8:40, Total pay = 80:10



60 MPG - (22 days X 2:20) = 8:40



Vacation paid the same but my pay went down by 10 hours. How can that be? Is it magic? No, it's a function of MPG. That's a 10 hour pay cut, not a work reduction. Plain and simple. I am still working the same number of days (zero) and I haven't gained any days off. Does this TA affect the vacation you are due? NO. Can this TA affect how vacation is paid out? YES. Will it affect everyone? No. Will it affect you? Do your due diligence and find out.



Now I sent an email to TI yesterday about this and I heard back pretty quickly from a high up on the SSC who said yes I am correct and that I am in the 10% who actually understands how this works. Well, why not explain this to the 90% then? Today I got another email from a 2nd person on the SSC so I guess my email really hit a nerve. This person said yes it will affect you, and it will affect more people if this TA is passed. I don't know if you are one of those (generally speaking) but it might be worth it to try this math yourself at your projected MPG.



I believe UALALPA has strong tradition of helping out pilots not only on the UAL list but other displaced ALPA pilots. I was one of them. As a 727 FE I sat behind a number of ex-Eastern types who were happy to get this chance at United late in life, even though they may never make captain. I believe this MEC in keeping that tradition had great intentions of helping potential furloughees. But implications of this TA are not fully understood and to call the MPG factor on vacation pay "fake news" just exposes ignorance. Do your due diligence THEN vote.

And yes, realize yes some of us are taking paycuts NOT just "work reductions".

Best wishes to us all!”

Bottom 1/3 here.

2 weeks vacation in Nov and I ran the numbers and will have a 30hr total pay cut: 84 hrs total pay pre TA (45.5 + 38.5) and 53.5 post TA (45.5 vacation pay + 8hrs MPG) by using that vacation now that the TA has passed. I appreciate you breaking down the math.

sleeves 10-21-2020 06:23 AM


Originally Posted by Sniper66 (Post 3147873)
it’s less than what it would have been, I agree.
however it’s a new era in case you have not noticed it .... we saved 3900 coworkers jobs and I am ok with that ...

try not to have a heart attack over this TA
LTD pays 96k per year

We probably saved more then that. More like 6000-7000. Without this agreement United would have been a much different company. It still may if things don’t improve in the next year, but at least we bought time.

Big5 10-21-2020 08:15 AM


Originally Posted by sleeves (Post 3147940)
We probably saved more then that. More like 6000-7000. Without this agreement United would have been a much different company. It still may if things don’t improve in the next year, but at least we bought time.

Fantastic use of hyperbole. At most we saved 2000 furloughs UNTIL June. After that it’s anybody’s guess. I’m going with 2007 in June and we we keep on trucking lethargicly under this new LOA for the next 1 1/2 years.

That’s the beauty of commentary here though. Someone be able to dig this up in 8 months and proclaim they’re prediction was correct. Maybe a sort of vindication for the no voters who saw it coming.

MasterOfPuppets 10-21-2020 08:37 AM


Originally Posted by Big5 (Post 3147992)
Fantastic use of hyperbole. At most we saved 2000 furloughs UNTIL June. After that it’s anybody’s guess. I’m going with 2007 in June and we we keep on trucking lethargicly under this new LOA for the next 1 1/2 years.

That’s the beauty of commentary here though. Someone be able to dig this up in 8 months and proclaim they’re prediction was correct. Maybe a sort of vindication for the no voters who saw it coming.

mark your calendar! It is going to be a big day for you! Keep that Champaign cold.

sweet sweet vindication.....man what a great day that will be when 2007 of our pilots are out of work....Im sure we will be able to see your smile from miles away as you bask in the glow of being a giant DB who rubbed being right in the faces of all those who will be downgraded displaced and let go.

Big5 10-21-2020 08:45 AM


Originally Posted by MasterOfPuppets (Post 3148000)
mark your calendar! It is going to be a big day for you! Keep that Champaign cold.

sweet sweet vindication.....man what a great day that will be when 2007 of our pilots are out of work....Im sure we will be able to see your smile from miles away as you bask in the glow of being a giant DB who rubbed being right in the faces of all those who will be downgraded displaced and let go.

It’s a 2 way street buddy. You haven’t stopped gloating since this LOA passed. How many are making 35 hr MPg while you collect 90hours captains pay sitting wb fo?

You’re good fortunes are earned off the broken backs of others. Enjoy you’re just reward.

DashTrash 10-21-2020 08:52 AM


Originally Posted by Big5 (Post 3147992)
Fantastic use of hyperbole. At most we saved 2000 furloughs UNTIL June. After that it’s anybody’s guess. I’m going with 2007 in June and we we keep on trucking lethargicly under this new LOA for the next 1 1/2 years.

That’s the beauty of commentary here though. Someone be able to dig this up in 8 months and proclaim they’re prediction was correct. Maybe a sort of vindication for the no voters who saw it coming.

A couple of things come to mind...

Maybe you should read the latest Crew Resources that just came out?

Also, when you have approximately 13,000 pilots and you’re only flying 37% of your staffed schedule, it’s simple math...

Wait a second... carry the 1 and add the 2... wait that’s not it!!! Wait, let me take off my shoes... Ugh, pilots doing math in public!!!

Wait it’s simple... 13,000 x .37= 4810 pilots needed.

Andy 10-21-2020 09:57 AM

You guys are wasting your time with this one. He's very likely been banned from the other forum (easy to see why) and has come here because the new forum that was created is a dead echo chamber. Same MO - argumentative and loves to twist others' statements into something completely different than what they said.
Basically a bloviating british troll living under a bridge in ORD.

Big5 10-21-2020 10:42 AM


Originally Posted by DashTrash (Post 3148012)
A couple of things come to mind...

Maybe you should read the latest Crew Resources that just came out?

Also, when you have approximately 13,000 pilots and you’re only flying 37% of your staffed schedule, it’s simple math...

Wait a second... carry the 1 and add the 2... wait that’s not it!!! Wait, let me take off my shoes... Ugh, pilots doing math in public!!!

Wait it’s simple... 13,000 x .37= 4810 pilots needed.

That’s great...so what’s your prediction. That is what this thread is about. Are you suggesting 8,190 furloughed?

ReadOnly7 10-21-2020 10:44 AM


Originally Posted by Andy (Post 3148046)
Basically a bloviating british troll living under a bridge in ORD.

There’s definitely a CAPS LOCK under that bridge.

Big5 10-21-2020 10:47 AM


Originally Posted by ReadOnly7 (Post 3148064)
There’s definitely a CAPS LOCK under that bridge.

I’ve toned it down...

DashTrash 10-21-2020 10:54 AM


Originally Posted by Big5 (Post 3148063)
That’s great...so what’s your prediction. That is what this thread is about. Are you suggesting 8,190 furloughed?

Nope, 6000-7000 is somewhat reasonable though. More realistic would be 5000-6000.

Huell 10-21-2020 12:58 PM


Originally Posted by Big5 (Post 3147842)
Puhhhhlease, have you seen the nov lines? Talk about out of wack. It’s full on feast on the 78. The Bus not so much.

Anything Upper group. They’ll feast also. Middle group they’ll get some scraps. Lower, nada. Yep WE, not Covid changed the rules and created our own feast or famine. To suggest this is covid is disingenuous.

How’s it going over at AA? DAL? sWa? Haven’t seen any of them split their pilot group in the name of covid.

Look at the bright side ... if the airline were to shutdown, everyone ... I mean EVERYONE ... would be in the same boat ... no one would have something you don’t have. Maybe you need to hope for that.

I have worked for 2 majors that shut down (had I stayed at ASA that would have lasted long enough ... just long enough) That puts things into perspective. Look at the doughnut and not the hole ... look at the glass that is half full.

I have always counted my blessings every day. YMMV ... just depends on how you look at it.

Sniper66 10-21-2020 01:21 PM


Originally Posted by Big5 (Post 3148068)
I’ve toned it down...



Big5


i would say you must feel really bad that you have been wrong after the last CCS update from PC..

now it’s time to stop and it will be good for your health
LTD still 96k.....protect your heart my friend

Huell 10-21-2020 01:22 PM


Originally Posted by Sniper66 (Post 3148166)
Big5


i would say you must feel really bad that you have been wrong after the last CCS update from PC..

now it’s time to stop and it will be good for your health
LTD still 96k.....protect your heart my friend

Tax free ... tax free.

TodKindrsChikun 10-21-2020 03:57 PM

Interesting within three short weeks we’ve gone from 4000 furloughs and threats of closing hubs to everything is proceeding as planned with no furloughs in the future.

Liquidity and cash burn make a happy company.

ugleeual 10-21-2020 04:03 PM


Originally Posted by TodKindrsChikun (Post 3148232)
Interesting within three short weeks we’ve gone from 4000 furloughs and threats of closing hubs to everything is proceeding as planned and no furloughs in the future.

Liquidity and cash burn make a happy company.

news flash... the TA was designed to stop furloughs and allow time to keep manpower the same for quick bounce back in demand.... if PC is correct in his update, and no furloughs are planned, then this validates the ratified TA is doing exactly what it was designed to do.

AxlF16 10-21-2020 04:05 PM


Originally Posted by TodKindrsChikun (Post 3148232)
Interesting within three short weeks we’ve gone from 4000 furloughs and threats of closing hubs to everything is proceeding as planned and no furloughs in the future.

Liquidity and cash burn make a happy company.

He said there's no PLAN to furlough in June.

TodKindrsChikun 10-21-2020 04:07 PM


Originally Posted by AxlF16 (Post 3148240)
He said there's no PLAN to furlough in June.

Correct. Hopefully we won’t.

TodKindrsChikun 10-21-2020 04:11 PM


Originally Posted by ugleeual (Post 3148238)
news flash... the TA was designed to stop furloughs and allow time to keep manpower the same for quick bounce back in demand.... if PC is correct in his update, and no furloughs are planned, then this validates the ratified TA is doing exactly what it was designed to do.

You’re not reading between the lines of my post. Which is it, fear and mass furlough or according to plan no furlough? What’s changed?

AxlF16 10-21-2020 04:54 PM


Originally Posted by TodKindrsChikun (Post 3148245)
You’re not reading between the lines of my post. Which is it, fear and mass furlough or according to plan no furlough? What’s changed?

There is more than one plan. The assumption is that they were going to execute a different plan without the LOA. The truth is that we'll never know.

TodKindrsChikun 10-21-2020 05:21 PM


Originally Posted by AxlF16 (Post 3148267)
There is more than one plan. The assumption is that they were going to execute a different plan without the LOA. The truth is that we'll never know.

I’ll buy that. To go from a dark vision to optimistic in less than a month is quite, well immaculate.

Thor 10-21-2020 08:48 PM


Originally Posted by TodKindrsChikun (Post 3148245)
You’re not reading between the lines of my post. Which is it, fear and mass furlough or according to plan no furlough? What’s changed?


What changed is that ALPA along with the majority of the membership simultaneously blinked and wet their pants. Now everyone is trying to rationalize how they didn’t get played.

You’re stuck with it for 2 years, get comfy.


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