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-   -   Junior B756 CA @ 5 years? (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/united/140910-junior-b756-ca-5-years.html)

ThumbsUp 01-05-2023 03:58 PM


Originally Posted by hummingbear (Post 3565675)
If you’ll read my post I referenced the qualities of a “truly random sample”- didn’t say our phone polling system was bias free. Still, if you think APC is more representative than even a poorly randomized phone survey I’ll respectfully disagree.


No, you're still not understanding. A 600-ct, random sample of pilots at United Airlines will not represent the "average" will of the 15000-ish. The only way to eliminate sample bias would be to make it not random, but targeted. And you'd need more than 600 people to do it. The NC isn't designing the poll, but you also have to know what you are asking for the poll to do to get accurate results.

JTwift 01-05-2023 04:01 PM


Originally Posted by m3113n1a1 (Post 3565677)
Just a casual unsolicited observation from a Delta guy. It's really interesting reading this thread and noting the difference between how Delta guys view improving reserve vs United guys. At Delta there's a lot of support for improving reserve (which is already pretty good at Delta), but here there's seemingly zero. I wonder why there's such a difference?

because everything at United is seniority, down to kicking someone off the jumpseat with 3 minutes to push. the really senior people are making 787 Captain money, haven’t been on reserve in ages, and feel that “reserve is a choice” and/or “I suffered, so everyone else needs to.

The same people who no doubt complain about getting 90 hour lines each month, yet somehow fail to realize that all these unfilled positions would only help them out with their own seniority/position if they got filled.

I don’t know…it’s baffling.

ThumbsUp 01-05-2023 04:04 PM


Originally Posted by m3113n1a1 (Post 3565677)
Just a casual unsolicited observation from a Delta guy. It's really interesting reading this thread and noting the difference between how Delta guys view improving reserve vs United guys. At Delta there's a lot of support for improving reserve (which is already pretty good at Delta), but here there's seemingly zero. I wonder why there's such a difference?


I think you may be reading that improving reserve at the cost of something else isn't worth it. I think most people will agree improving reserve is a good thing, but probably not the the most important thing in terms of the buckets of negotiating capital we have. Also, our reassignment rules (not necessarily the pay associated with getting reassigned) are better in many ways than Delta, which most people probably wouldn't give away for improved reserve rules.

dmeg13021 01-05-2023 04:24 PM

Let me guess, reserve improvements fall just below LTD, retirement improvements, sick leave accrual, vacation pay, and PBS seniority abrogation?

Hedley 01-05-2023 04:31 PM


Originally Posted by dmeg13021 (Post 3565742)
Let me guess, reserve improvements fall just below LTD, retirement improvements, sick leave accrual, vacation pay, and PBS seniority abrogation?

Yes, but above optional hats, and beards.😂

dmeg13021 01-05-2023 05:21 PM

A fair retort my friend!

ugleeual 01-06-2023 03:03 AM

Delta is hiring…

Random Task 01-06-2023 05:47 AM


Originally Posted by ThumbsUp (Post 3565724)
No, you're still not understanding. A 600-ct, random sample of pilots at United Airlines will not represent the "average" will of the 15000-ish. The only way to eliminate sample bias would be to make it not random, but targeted. And you'd need more than 600 people to do it. The NC isn't designing the poll, but you also have to know what you are asking for the poll to do to get accurate results.

You don't understand statistics.

ThumbsUp 01-06-2023 06:48 AM


Originally Posted by Random Task (Post 3565938)
You don't understand statistics.

Lol. I certainly hope I do, as most of my career was defined by it. Maybe this isn’t obvious to others, so here is a brief explanation.

My opinion is that what constitutes a pilot’s contractual desires is heavily affected by what BES they hold, commuter vs non-commuter, reserve vs non-reserve, WB vs NB, etc. The only way to assess the opinions of all of those groups in a statically meaningful way is by modifying the sample frame for each group. I haven’t received a call, so this survey may be so broad brush that it doesn’t matter anyway.

TFAYD 01-06-2023 07:07 AM


Originally Posted by ThumbsUp (Post 3565974)
Lol. I certainly hope I do, as most of my career was defined by it. Maybe this isn’t obvious to others, so here is a brief explanation.

My opinion is that what constitutes a pilot’s contractual desires is heavily affected by what BES they hold, commuter vs non-commuter, reserve vs non-reserve, WB vs NB, etc. The only way to assess the opinions of all of those groups in a statically meaningful way is by modifying the sample frame for each group. I haven’t received a call, so this survey may be so broad brush that it doesn’t matter anyway.

this is generally correct even though BES maybe too much of a microsegmentation.

you can still get a representative sample with the 600. It jus depends what (if any) segments you have


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