Rather than guess and hope find the actual retirement numbers by year. You can then compare your seniority progression year by year, or every 2 years (easier to wrap your head around), or every 5 years.

Keep in mind United has more large w/b's (not the small 757/767 pay bump) but you have to factor in how many of Delta and United's current 767's will be replaced by 787's (that's the large w/b pay bump that matters). Given UA's overall larger international route structure and subsequent larger large w/b fleet the same seniority number at Delta is less valuable at the end of your career. IE #400 at DL might have the same w/b bidding power as #500 at UA.

Get the data and work it out. Then figure out the value of driving to EWR for every trip vs the major pain of driving to JFK instead. Over decades it's almost "who cares! Just go to United and avoid all the pain!!"

So he'd have approx. 700 guys less behind him at UA vs staying at DL by the end of 2024. Is that worth decades of drving past EWR to go to JFK? I doubt few that have lived that drive wouldn't go to UA if they had the chance earlier in their career.

dilemma
 

Here is my dilemma that I am trying to figure out.
I am 55 years old and a captain at a AA wholly owned regional and live in base in CLT.
I have a class date at Delta in 2 weeks and a class date at United in 6 weeks.
I don't have the option of moving so will be a commuter for 10 years.
I am initially prepared to commute to NYC. I have family in Queens, NY and also in Wayne, NJ which is about 20 miles from EWR.
Delta could eventually offer me ATL which is a 3.5 hr drive from my home in CLT.
Given I only have 10 years, I would like to upgrade soon.
It seems given the seniority situation at DAL, it would take 4 years to upgrade based on when I will be joining.
UAL could give me CA in NH bid or within a year, however I would lose the option of driving 3.5 hrs to ATL and also give up the supposedly DAL 'stability'.
Which is a better airline for me?

DAL. You can sit ATL reserve from CLT.

DAL. United east coast network is trash, the commute would be miserable

Why ask those questions in the first place? You said you a) hate commuting and b) aren’t leaving Denver, so if United has a few work rules that don’t match Delta, are you going to keep commuting and be miserable?

Go to UAL ASAP’ly!

LC, yes, SC no.

On SC days a day trip to the mountains and lakes outside Greenville would be in order. I'd love to have to do that.

I don't think commuting from CLT-DC would be miserable, it would likely be pretty reasonable. 6-9 daily flights to IAD, 8-13 flights a day to BWI, 9-16 flights a day to DCA with the pretty easy metro connections to BWI and IAD. CLT to ATL has 15-21 flights a day, so you're looking at about the same in my book. Commuting sucks for sure, but that looks like a pretty good situation to be in if one had to commute. 6 hour drive to DC vs 4 to ATL (although needing to drive through ATL could take 2 hour. If it takes 6+ months to get captain, and you get a year of PSC, they only have 8.5 years from there. If it got bad take WB FO and cut the number of commutes drastically.

The DC CLT flights are full of deadheading flight crews for AA and the regionals - BWI is 2+ hours away from IAD. The metro is 1 hour between DCA and IAD. It’s not miserable, but it’s not a walk in the park. CLT to ATL commute sucks too because it’s all RJ’s

Commuting for WB would be worth the pain though to IAD