We’re not cynics. We’re well trained cynics.

 

everyone laughed when Howard said 18k pilots. And now we’re close to that

 

We are already hiring high school diploma only peeps with 1,500 hrs. Its crazy out there already. Only going to get worse

 

And airlines at overseas airlines do not even have that high a standard.

 

Imagine if they started hiring 250 hour pilots without ATPs!

oh wait.

 

because a college degree is so important for being an airline pilot.

 

A few other notes from this week-

- 28000 pilots by 2030
- On track to hire 2350 this year, 2000/year “for the next few years”
- No new bases on horizon
- Might bring 777 back to other bases
- Plan is to have roughly 17%-22% of pilots on reserve depending on category
- Total aircraft delivery goal is 130-150 per year
- No indication of a lack of qualified applicants, especially with AIP
- United mainline capacity up 4% since 2019, expect 18% increase in 2024
- United Express capacity down 40%
- A321 neos start arriving October 2023
- New 787s start arriving fall 2024
- Goal is 24-30 new 787s per year with better wifi, touchscreen flight deck, better wx radar
- Max10 has 22 lie-flat seats
- Biggest obstacle to growth/new routes is not enough planes
- Heavy maintenance is piling up, especially on older fleets
- 321XLR will be one for one replacement for 757
- A350s no earlier than 2030, Kirby doesn’t really want them bc of increased complexity
- New land in Denver will be used for 12 new sims, rest of land use is unknown/noncommittal but apparently we got a good deal on it
- ORD, EWR, LAX, SFO growth will be all via upgauge, getting rid of RJs
- LAX terminal 9 opens late 2020s (best case scenario)
- Expanding gates / real estate in DEN, IAH, IAD
- Increasing from 4 to 7 banks in IAD
- Priority is to grow hubs instead of opening new hubs
- Sounds like 50 seat RJs gone by end of decade
- Big push to automate more of crew scheduling, will depend a lot on language in contract. June 2023 meltdown exposed a lot of weaknesses with current scheduling system
- Hiring lots more schedulers in short term to help prevent another meltdown
- FAA/ATC capacity biggest short term constraint
- Kirby and everyone else is stoked that Delta/American don’t have enough aircraft on order, retired fleets during COVID, are way behind us in the line for new planes, and don’t have enough capacity to train new hires. We’re currently #1 in ASMs and expect the gap to grow a lot over the next decade


-Kirby not concerned with or about new uniform satisfaction...thinks it's impossible to please everyone and not in his direct wheelhouse. More concerned about making this a place to be proud to work at for other reasons.
-one of the damaged 767s is being repaired
-Kirby is not as confident that AIP will solve vacancy issues as ALPA but, he hopes he's wrong. It sounds like there is a provision in contract that will resolve that regardless.
-orlando is a huge success so far and can expect expansion there (or elsewhere in Florida) but not likely to become a hub anytime soon.

 

boy o boy can you instantly tell tho.

 

28k pilots huh? So what airline is UAL buying to make that even remotely feasible?

Oh FFS this again?

”I knew the rules but I didn’t want to play by them, now I’m mad I didn’t get special treatment.”

 

oh can you really? Some of the best pilots I know barely graduated high school. A college degree has about as much to do with being a good pilot as it does with making it to pro sport.. ie, it doesn’t. (Oh and I have a degree, never used it, and I’m a crappy pilot to boot.)