28,000 Pilots
11-06-2023 | 09:29 AM
#21
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Aug 2015
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From: Captain
The industry is fundamentally changed enjoying unprecedented pricing power since deregulation, but without MASSIVE government intervention the Covid pandemic would have bankrupted most airlines. How soon we forget.
And if you don't think 28,000 United pilots by 2030 is emotionally based then you aren't paying attention.
And if you don't think 28,000 United pilots by 2030 is emotionally based then you aren't paying attention.
21000 is the number most likely by 2030
with 1200 mainline aircraft
currently 926 aircraft with 16700 pilots
so another 270 some aircraft growth will produce max another 5000 pilots
The rest is selling points to attract pilots
11-06-2023 | 11:01 AM
#22
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 2,826
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16600 pilots today
Add another 200 to finish out 2023
Add another 15000 (2500/yr for six years, also assumes none of those pilots hit retirement age before 2030)
Subtract 3450 retiring through 2029 (age 67 drops that number to 2050)
----------
28400 pilots
Of course, no one really thinks this hiring rate will continue for another half dozen years...
Add another 200 to finish out 2023
Add another 15000 (2500/yr for six years, also assumes none of those pilots hit retirement age before 2030)
Subtract 3450 retiring through 2029 (age 67 drops that number to 2050)
----------
28400 pilots
Of course, no one really thinks this hiring rate will continue for another half dozen years...
11-06-2023 | 12:18 PM
#23
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Aug 2015
Posts: 1,561
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From: Captain
regional flying will come to mainline ( thats where the expansion and growth will come from )
Time will tell if there are or not eligible pilots
I think there will be always eligible pilots to be hired
Let’s hope we don’t have a black swan before 2030
11-06-2023 | 06:05 PM
#25
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2020
Posts: 2,235
Likes: 81
Because mgmts historically promise the moon, then life happens. Wasn't it in 2015 or so when UAL was telling its pilots they'd number like 18000 in 5yrs (don't remember the ##'s or dates, but this record has played before).
11-06-2023 | 06:29 PM
#26
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Joined: Sep 2022
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Because there are substantial doubts that pilot supply, aircraft supply and consumer demand will support it.
11-07-2023 | 10:42 AM
#27
Banned
Joined: Feb 2018
Posts: 657
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From: B-737 Captain
The industry is fundamentally changed enjoying unprecedented pricing power since deregulation, but without MASSIVE government intervention the Covid pandemic would have bankrupted most airlines. How soon we forget.
And if you don't think 28,000 United pilots by 2030 is emotionally based then you aren't paying attention.
And if you don't think 28,000 United pilots by 2030 is emotionally based then you aren't paying attention.
11-07-2023 | 11:35 AM
#28
Slam-Clicka
Joined: Dec 2019
Posts: 1,570
Likes: 85
I pay WAY more in taxes than I received for those 18 months. Sorry, not sorry. If this industry tanked, we would have taken a huge chunk of our entire economy down with us. Not to mention…..Uncle Sam is a huge reason the whole world needlessly shut down to begin with.
11-07-2023 | 12:31 PM
#30
Line Holder
Joined: Sep 2015
Posts: 590
Likes: 71
Because 7 years in the industry is an eternity. 2030 is near enough to sound close and exciting...but is far enough away that by the time it rolls around, people will have forgotten all about it. If there's one thing UAL Marketing knows, it's how to get everyone's attention by banging their own drum.
I have a feeling everybody's forecasts are going to need "adjustments" after the next recession.
I have a feeling everybody's forecasts are going to need "adjustments" after the next recession.
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