Purchase F9. Ha! Have some g*****n respect for yourselves.

 

buy American? The ultimate Kirby FU.

 

Black swans will come. So will white.

They can have two effects
1) temporary reduction in demand that rebounds
2) structural change

The last 40 years have been so rough because of structural changes post deregulation. I don’t see structural changes waiting on the level of legacy consolidation, FE removal, baseline load factor shifts etc. but change my mind… i like data

 

I've flown with a surprising amount of pilots who are dead-set on one particular carrier because to paraphrase, "there's no rush, hiring will remain strong for another 6-10 years"

 

Your data is wrong. I told you. the load factor at United in 2000 was in the 70s, not 60s. And only 75 aircraft, or 12% of our fleet had FEs in 2001. But it's nice to know you have it all figured out. A genius. Just wait till it hits the fan... you'll need some cheese with your whine.

 

None of that dispels his larger premise that the industry was fundamentally very different back then. More airlines flying fewer passengers with more expensive (crew to a small degree, but especially fuel efficiency) airplanes with substantially lower profit margins, where a minor decrease in revenue due to fairly standard economic fluctuations could make the difference between profit and loss or even solvency and insolvency.

That also doesn't dispel your notion that this industry has a history of unforeseen events that turn it upside down. Both can be true. And they are.

I tend to err on his side, though, that the industry has materially changed via consolidation and that airlines (for the sake of my argument, I'm referring specifically to the three main legacies) are probably more insulated now than ever before from the run-of-the-mill economic cycles. Couple that with unprecedented retirements for the foreseeable future (if 67 passes, the bell curve just slides two years to the right), and it's not naïve to believe that there's good reason to suspect the status quo to continue for a while.

 

Personal insults aren’t helpful

12% of the fleet having an fe is 4% of pilots

The ability to permanently reduce pilot labor requirements by retiring a fleet isn’t trivial

I don’t see any low hanging fruit now that management can pick and permanently reduce labor demand with the benefit of a crisis. That is what made the last 40 years so hard, Pilots took a hit during a crisis and the economy getting better didn’t return the status quo.

 

What is driving this emotional attachment to “the sh!t hitting the fan”? Whatever the cause, many of these predictions are clearly ridden with emotion. Accurate predictions are not made with emotion.

 

The industry is fundamentally changed enjoying unprecedented pricing power since deregulation, but without MASSIVE government intervention the Covid pandemic would have bankrupted most airlines. How soon we forget.

And if you don't think 28,000 United pilots by 2030 is emotionally based then you aren't paying attention.

 

Wait…..what? That’s not what TI said and he’s the smartest guy ever….just ask him.