Looks like zero awards into MCO/TPA on the last vacancy bid in either seat. Of the FOs who are already there, the bottom two got in via base trades (which is no longer possible as the plug), with the most junior currently about 900 from the bottom. The most junior to get in via a vacancy is about 1200 off the bottom today, so I'd say plan on maybe a year?

Left seat is a different story. Bottom CA is roughly 5500 numbers up from the bottom, so it's gonna be a while. Crystal ball is hazy as usual, but it could be a decade for someone hired today.

The top 1/3 or so of the CA list there can comfortably hold WB CA in any base within easy commute, not a single one bid out on the latest big WB bid. I’d say a decade (or more) is probably realistic unless they grow the base more or add another BES.

A lot of those guys are also former WB CAs as well who bidded back to 73 CA for MCO as well… It’s gonna take a while for anyone looking for MCO to get in now even as a FO…. The time to get into MCO was 2022 before the new contract.

may a different airline? Because MCO wasn’t a base in 2022.

You're both sort of right. The first vacancy where you could bid into MCO was in Dec 2022, but the base didn't actually open up until 2023.

December 2022 was the first vacancy right?

fair enough

Latest LCP meeting with Kirby said that MCO will see expansion and WB international flying as soon as they get the planes to do so. It’s up to Boeing at this point to start cranking out the planes. But short of a black swan event, you will see considerable MCO growth in 1-2 years. WB will go super senior even on the FO side, but if you are comfortable driving to work as a 737 FO, I would bet a new hire would be able to hold it fairly easy. The trips have a pretty nice mix of flying and as long as you can make it to MCO in 2.5 hours, a short call on reserve to TPA is essentially you get there when you get there.

When was said LCP meeting?

It was a few weeks ago. The big question mark is what ramifications a potential NK BK could have. It’s looking more and more like a forgone conclusion.