He means PAX carriers were flying cargo… without pax.

 

A few pilots formerly at Pan Am, Eastern, Braniff etc. would like a word ...

... Not to mention 2000-01 hires at UAL who got furloughed twice in the same decade.

 

He's not wrong though. Pan Am, Eastern, Braniff, etc were from a different time. A time of intense industry shakeup and competition from startups in a newly de-regulated airline world. While those were all big names, they are only big airlines in our memories. The reality is that each of those airlines were smaller than even Spirit is today. Conversely, the complete failure of one of the “big three” today would have a massive economic impact. That’s not to say that they couldn’t have rough times, furlough employees, etc, but it would be very unlikely they would be allowed to follow Pan Am into the history books.

To your other point, yes. We have double furloughed pilots from the 9-11/‘08 recession era, but they are now all back on property if they chose to come back - which is exactly Margaritaville’s point. He never said someone wouldn’t be furloughed, but eventually they will likely have their job again if they choose.

 

not sure about that. Assets (airplanes, gates, push tugs etc) won’t go away. There will be a massive and super painful restructuring - just watch Spirit - and things will chuck along. Don’t count on any of the big three as too big to fail and being bailed out.

 

Good Points no one is safe in airline business

 

Spirit wouldn’t leave a gap big enough to create a “super painful restructuring” though. I wouldn’t want them to go belly up, but the reality is that they don’t do charters, cargo flying, long haul flying, have a robust loyalty program, Mx programs and contracts with people outside their own company, etc…

Definitely not the same

 

You're not wrong about that.

 

It’s just a hard decision man because of the current state of affairs. I have time on my side but also it’s like, is it really worth giving up everything to take the risk? I think the best answer is to just wait it out and see once I’m offered a class date. Who knows maybe things change in the industry and world.

 

Domestic US market share:
2024
DAL: 17.7%
LUV: 17.5%
AAL: 17.4%
UAL: 15.9%

2019
LUV: 19.5%
DAL: 16.8%
AAL: 15.5%
UAL: 10.8%

https://www.transtats.bts.gov

 

Honestly this is the best numbers I’ve seen. It means we still have room to grow. I’ve always been skeptical of “growth” but we actually can continue to capture market share.