Not surprising, every Legacy is cutting back on hiring in 2025 from their initial projections. Class sizes will be smaller and more infrequent.

 

Outta the Big 3, latest #’s I’ve seen floating around for 25’ hiring..
Delta: 1,000
AA: 1,000-1,500
United: Was 2,000, then ~1,500, now I hear ~900 due to Boeing
Personally, don’t think any airline will hit 2k again in the near-future, & that’s w/o the obvious recession that’s due anytime

 

Did you get a class date yet? I was offered a class in April and I'm 50/50 on leaving AA at 1.5 years to start over at UAL.

I did some side-by-side comparisons for my seniority vs some data my buddies at UAL provided and it looks very similar in terms of seniority. The advantage is UAL has vastly more WB flying and volume out of ORD.

Here's what I could work out: https://imgur.com/a/j0eGzKv

These are worst-case scenarios and from what I've heard there are unfilled vacancies at ORD, DEN, and SFO consistently in the 737, so upgrades would be likely as soon as you're clearing probation. Can anyone confirm this?

I'm curious if you had any further thoughts on the decision.

 

I clicked in your thing.....I can't really understand it....but as long as you can...........it seems you are projecting what equip you can hold and when you could .....I will only say you should know by now that predicting future things like this subject to way to much volatility to eliminate all the speculative risk that's involved with changing legacy teams. One data point you do know is retirements...published on this very website.

as far as narrow body upgrading after probation...well certainly that WAS NOT the results of the last bid which closed March 13. That is not to say it may one day return. Your decision involves risk. It appears you are 37, and have been at AAl for 1.5 years......already being at a legacy...it's risky........not reckless or endangerment.......but are the rewards worth it???

if it meant a life of commuting I d take it, but otherwise I wouldn't do it.

 

So this whole "upgrade after probation" horse has been beaten to death, but people are still relying on bad info soooo ...

The unfilled vacancies exist so that the company can assign them to new hires. Currently those are all NBFO spots. There was a short time period in late '23 -- April '24 where they had unfilled 737CA vacancies, and those were assigned to new hires. For those that took those slots, they had to complete 500 hrs at UAL and get off probation (a year) and then they'd be eligible to go to upgrade class. Many of those folks are in upgrade training right now.

However, that ship has sailed. The last class to have NHCA slots was April 2, 2024. (I missed this by one class). Since then, our regular vacancy bids have seen NBCA slots go much more senior. I think the most recent bids had the most junior 737CA at an 11,000 employee number (out of 18,000 total), and we just had a bid with the most junior Bus CA at around 13,000 (too lazy to look it up).

The monthly crew resource updates clearly state that we are more than fully staffed for NBCA positions for the foreseeable future. We have a lot of brand new CAs in training right now and hitting the line, so if you were to start indoc now, it's anyone's guess how many years it would be before you see the left seat. Same goes for WBFO, that has gone super super senior over the last year I've been here....

 

Took me 15 years to get to the left seat, but that was some time ago.

Now, get off my lawn! :P

 

Sounds pretty risky to me to be honest.

 

Reviving this thread.


Similar concept to everyone else that asked. Im at Delta and finished training in april so still very fresh on the 737. Im commuting to LAX and live in SFO and man oh man commuting is an extra stain on my mind and it's driving me nuts. The commute isn't terrible. I show up for an assignment 2 hours prior, havent had any issues. That whole process of getting to an assignment takes 4 hours at least out of my day. Getting back home has been a little more difficult depending on what time I end a trip at night.

I got the UA TBNT in june 23 and not long after that being that I came from OO the "flow agreement" got me worried that I would be pulled into the 1600 TPIC trap and id have to start over so instead i took the CJO with DAL a year later.

Waited 8 months for a DA class. I'm somehow a line holder, not sure what its going to look like when the seasonal flying slows down come fall. The flying is decent, these constant transcons are rather dull. Flights between 1.5-2hr are my sweet spot. But only half of the trips are commutable. So, that part isn't great.

There are UA folks who live in DA bases and DA folks who live in UA bases and criss cross on the commute. That's rather odd imo. I don't have the desire to fly widebody but I'd like having the ability to hop onto one for fun travel.

I have no interest moving to any DAL base with the exception of SEA maybe, but I do like having sunlight or going to DEN would be something else I'd do for UA or stay in SFO.

Given the climate right now is it even worth reapplying with UA prepping for an interview, waiting for a class and going through the school house again for YR 1 pay.

 

Considering that Delta is (for now) supposedly done with hiring for 2025, if you can land a CJO and class date at UA in relatively short order, this might not be the worst idea. The key is how long it takes...right now I have no idea how big the pool is, but people have been waiting a while for a class. The rumor is that hiring will pick back up in the winter and then big hiring again next year, but I have no idea of how valid any of that is. If you were able to get in the door in the next year, you'd probably have a pretty similar seniority outlook and QoL at UAL.

 

It is 100% worth reapplying in order to not commute.