So you support efforts to end the regime, but don’t understand the why or approve that it’s us doing it. You’re not supposed to know the “coherent strategy.” What, you want the OPORD posted to Facebook for public approval? Should we send you the ATO for your daily approval too? The messaging has been clear, this was planned to be a four week operation, and they’re ahead of schedule. That’s all anyone needs to know. They’re currently playing “line of succession whack a mole” and the IRGC and Artesh seem to just be executing standing orders in hand.

If you want to know how this “could” play out, and to your assessment of the situation on the ground, you can draw a lot of parallels with the fall
of communist Romania, and the situation on the ground in Iran, the current military operations not withstanding. As you’re aware the regular army and the IRGC are not the same thing, and if you know anything about the targets being hit, aside from the regime, the IRGC has taken the brunt. The messaging and targeting has been very clear, it’s the regime and that security apparatus being taken out. The Artesh isn’t going unscathed but they aren’t the bullseye. Just like in Romania, you get the regular army to turn their guns on the regime/IRGC, and back the people, there’s the beginning of your end state. Regime opposition can start putting back together a pre-1979 revolution govt they all want back, either bringing back the Shahs son, democratically or some combination of options. Bottom line, you have a very large resistance, a decapitated regime, and a rudderless security apparatus. However this isn’t Libya, the population is a much more coalesced. See below for more “strategy” in the potential third order effects.

FYI I had four tours/deployments done before I was half way though my 25+,year career, I can count my time over there in years all of it in direct combat operations.

Had to quote just to say, awesome. Anyone that doesn't know this quote should educate themselves.

Think about this… just maybe this isn’t really about Iran. It is, but it’s also about China (and Russia).

Between Venezuela, and now Iran, China has lost two major oil and energy providers. Russia has now lost a major weapons provider for their efforts in Ukraine. No one is talking about (yet) the effects this will have on the Ukraine war. It also just proved, again, Russian and Chinese defense systems to be completely worthless. China now needs to really rethink whether they can really pull of an invasion of Taiwan with US backed opposition.

This administration is solidifying power and control (and thus security) in the western hemisphere, while the second and third order effects haven’t been fully appreciated yet across other geopolitical issues.

 

[QUOTE=Bestglide;4008558]yeah the Taliban just attacked Pakistan and it looked like the United States was invading. All our hummers and support vehicles

 

[QUOTE=Bestglide;4008558]Who was the president who froze Afghanistan out of negotiations and struck a unilateral deal with the Taliban to release 5,000 of their fighters from prison as long as they promised not to attack Americans? How did that work out?

 

Muhammad! Jihad! Ah, dirka dirka dirka…

Such a great and underrated movie!

 

....... and will get no credit ........meanwhile the rest of the western world including liberal social democracies in the far east will flourish off the backs of this event ...but continue to criticize, protest, mock and jeer. I'll take that over being bombed by adversaries. Netanyahu and his far right Haredi colleagues are not without flaw and may make us uncomfortable but I question what would the fate of B'nei Yisreal be without him and the Likud party? Im not sure.... but I don't see it being more safe.

Hey you may not have grown up in Israel, South Korea, Taiwan or Northern Ireland.......but I assume you have a garden right??

I don't just trim weeds, I spray them or I pull them out at the roots......

I know I know you are a pilot right? They pay you enough to hire landscaping.

 

JFC. Fangs/Rick? It’s beyond time.

 

See the earlier reference to North Africa/Libya. That POTUS didn't do it either........

 

I started this thread not wanting but knowing that the content could very well likely spill out of the original mug of “TLV/DXB route suspension”. Unfortunately it is next to impossible to discuss but more importantly understand things like the desired topic without referencing current geopolitics. We shall strive to devoid ourselves of political opinions and there are other threads for those debates but but our airline and our career do not exist solely in the O’Hare 8 departure and unfortunately is influenced by things that we “ shouldn’t” talk about.

 

It’s not that hard, as soon as you find yourself typing a politicians name…..you should stop and realize that 1/2 the nation has a different option about that person than you do, and that’s OK.

 

The straight is effectively shut down. All maritime insurers have withdrawn coverage. There are already 750 ships holding out waiting on insurance coming available.