The Q4 earnings release included the 2012 fleet plan. Showed a net mainline decrease of 5 757s (offsetting 787s for 767 retirements) along with a decrease of 11 RJs. So shrinkage is already programmed into the numbers. You'll find the latest fleet plan here: United Continental Holdings, Inc. - Investor Relations - Fleet Information

They would need to retire ~2 mainline aircraft/month to offset combined LUAL/LCAL retirements. And when you consider that they'll need to fill a training pipeline, the number of aircraft retirements needs to be a bit higher at the leading edge of retirements.

CitationD, thanks.
As someone who's spent a LOT of time on furlough, the last thing that I'd want to do is falsely raise ShortBusDrive's expectations. On the other hand, he's likely to be trying to make plans based on the best possible information. He's likely to be in, at worst, the fourth class after the second April class.
The reason why I hedge with at worst is because acceptance rates are going to decrease as we get deeper on the furloughee list. They will decrease because 1) the 2007/8 furloughees will have a higher percentage of military deferrals (a lot of us hired 2001 and earlier have retired from the military) and 2) the pay rate will be much lower for 2007/8 returnees. The lower pay rate will mean that many will stay put at their current jobs if they're making a higher salary rather than accept the LCAL offer.

It's a fine balancing act between unrealistically raising one's expectations and giving them good information on which to plan their future.

While my response may have hurt DV's feelings, DV gave zero thought to the turd that he dropped on ShortBusDrive's doorstep with his response.

No turd left on my doorstep. It's ALL speculation. But like you said, trying to plan for down the road. Have a good paying gov't job, but want to get back. And if there's a good chance to get a call come Fall, I will not pursue other opportunities available (which would involve a move away from my kids) And now living in NJ, EWR would be REAL good!!! So CAL EWR, or UAL "New York" (again), would suit me fine.
I don't believe Dvhighdrive88 was trying to be the wet blanket. He's just trying to figure it all out also.
(And it's tough with pink fuzzy handcuffs, and an Eight Ball strapped to his ankle.) :p

Latest reported statement (2/21) from a Chief Pilot during ground school: 200-250 vacancies and new bases.

CP statements in ground school are notoriously inaccurate because sometimes they really don't know what's going and sometimes it's just propaganda.

Last week that same chief pilot told our class to expect around 125 vacancies FWIW.

i love how the number continues to rise with every groundschool-- eventually the pinnacle will be reached

This must be the MOTHER OF ALL BIDS that has been fabled for so long!
:)
:)

"Everyone on property will be captains this time next year!!!!!"

And IPads are just around the corner!

Is that the corner of Far and Away??