UniCal and the future of RJs
05-22-2012 | 03:27 PM
#21
Banned
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 1,134
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Allowing a Q400 to do routes formerly flown by 737s is a completely different matter.
IOWs, even that strong scope STILL had holes in it that Larry and J-Lo were able to exploit.
05-22-2012 | 03:56 PM
#22
Line Holder
Joined: Jun 2010
Posts: 943
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From: 747 Captain, retired
Old UAL CA made a statement on the thread "Delta TA Overview" that wasn't well received. It was brief but I think what he is trying to say is that market forces are very difficult to overcome regarding the direction this often bizarre and tumultuous industry goes. We are in a great time of change in this industry and the Delta TA (for good or bad) is a watershed moment and a turning point in the future of the major/regional airline industry. Now before everyone gets their pitchforks and nooses out, lets look at whats going on here and think about what is best for our collective future as a soon to be unified pilot group.
Should the UniCal JNC be considering the Delta scope TA? I think most would resoundingly say no, I don't think they have much of a choice and I'm not here to argue for or against what is before the Delta pilots-plenty of threads doings that. But lets look at WHY the Delta TA is what it is and why I believe our pilots groups will have to consider it's implications (especially in negotiations).
Folks, our future at UCH comes down to one main factor these days and that is the cost of petroleum. It is has steadily become the driving force behind where our industry is headed and the Delta TA is really a statement about the future effect strategists believe fuel prices will have on this business.
Let's look at orders for airplanes. Bulging at the seams for Busses and 737's, hardly noticeable for the 90-130 seat range and a massive order looming for the 76 seaters IF the Delta scope TA prevails across this industry. I'm not arguing for or against, so don't get that idea.
So why the tepid 90-130 orders in the US? Because fuel prices are driving the majors to actually reduce their reliance on regional feed over time and direct that flying back to the next gen Busses and 737's that will become huge RJ's with single class high density seating. You run the numbers as fuel goes $150, $200, $250 a barrel and you'll see a strategy. However, there will always be places the big guys have zip interest in going and just like SWA has no interest. In steps the Delta style regional vision (be it jet or prop) as these 50 seaters die slowly in the scrap yard. My point is fuel is by far the greatest factor in our future and it will dictate where we go, what we buy and who flies what. We can beat our chests all day and think that as pilots we are critical to fleet decisions, however we are insignificant to petrol and the effect it has on our careers, the careers of regional pilots, your friend's and families' lifestyle and fortune, the future of the US economy or the destiny of the whole damn planet?!
There has been a lot of consistent chatter that the JNC is in a similar position as the Delta guys have now publicly been put in. The decision is to minimize the effect on our careers fuel is going to have as airplanes have to become bigger, more densely packed and required to generate cash flow through a multitude of sources. From all the factors that are aligning in the industry as of late when you put them together it begins to form a picture of a future that is clearly painted through the brush of fuel prices...and because of this negotiations regarding scope are going to center on the need for the 70 seat RJ to fly where a 50 used to go less frequently as majors shift mainline flying back to high density seating narrow bodies. Is this not what the essence of the Delta TA scope section is about? Could it be the very same issue our JNC is grappling with now?
Things have a funny way of falling into place suddenly in this business. Things are moving very fast now that this TA is public. Pilots have traditionally been rather lacking in their long term strategic thinking but we need to change that. We have to think farther than to the next contract and look at where the aircraft orders are going and why.
Again, I'm not for or against. I just think rather than get preoccupied with things right before our nose, we need to be better long term strategic thinkers for our careers sake. We need to support the JNC and our union as it maybe
,
through a long term strategic, well thought out decision making process. We need to be more rational and less knee jerk with the blowhard forum antics.
The reality is people, this industry is moving ahead very quickly and it is picking up speed very suddenly. We're going to miss the train if were scrabbling around the stockyard looking for pennies in the dirt.
Fraternally,
DV
Should the UniCal JNC be considering the Delta scope TA? I think most would resoundingly say no, I don't think they have much of a choice and I'm not here to argue for or against what is before the Delta pilots-plenty of threads doings that. But lets look at WHY the Delta TA is what it is and why I believe our pilots groups will have to consider it's implications (especially in negotiations).
Folks, our future at UCH comes down to one main factor these days and that is the cost of petroleum. It is has steadily become the driving force behind where our industry is headed and the Delta TA is really a statement about the future effect strategists believe fuel prices will have on this business.
Let's look at orders for airplanes. Bulging at the seams for Busses and 737's, hardly noticeable for the 90-130 seat range and a massive order looming for the 76 seaters IF the Delta scope TA prevails across this industry. I'm not arguing for or against, so don't get that idea.
So why the tepid 90-130 orders in the US? Because fuel prices are driving the majors to actually reduce their reliance on regional feed over time and direct that flying back to the next gen Busses and 737's that will become huge RJ's with single class high density seating. You run the numbers as fuel goes $150, $200, $250 a barrel and you'll see a strategy. However, there will always be places the big guys have zip interest in going and just like SWA has no interest. In steps the Delta style regional vision (be it jet or prop) as these 50 seaters die slowly in the scrap yard. My point is fuel is by far the greatest factor in our future and it will dictate where we go, what we buy and who flies what. We can beat our chests all day and think that as pilots we are critical to fleet decisions, however we are insignificant to petrol and the effect it has on our careers, the careers of regional pilots, your friend's and families' lifestyle and fortune, the future of the US economy or the destiny of the whole damn planet?!
There has been a lot of consistent chatter that the JNC is in a similar position as the Delta guys have now publicly been put in. The decision is to minimize the effect on our careers fuel is going to have as airplanes have to become bigger, more densely packed and required to generate cash flow through a multitude of sources. From all the factors that are aligning in the industry as of late when you put them together it begins to form a picture of a future that is clearly painted through the brush of fuel prices...and because of this negotiations regarding scope are going to center on the need for the 70 seat RJ to fly where a 50 used to go less frequently as majors shift mainline flying back to high density seating narrow bodies. Is this not what the essence of the Delta TA scope section is about? Could it be the very same issue our JNC is grappling with now?
Things have a funny way of falling into place suddenly in this business. Things are moving very fast now that this TA is public. Pilots have traditionally been rather lacking in their long term strategic thinking but we need to change that. We have to think farther than to the next contract and look at where the aircraft orders are going and why.
Again, I'm not for or against. I just think rather than get preoccupied with things right before our nose, we need to be better long term strategic thinkers for our careers sake. We need to support the JNC and our union as it maybe
, through a long term strategic, well thought out decision making process. We need to be more rational and less knee jerk with the blowhard forum antics.
The reality is people, this industry is moving ahead very quickly and it is picking up speed very suddenly. We're going to miss the train if were scrabbling around the stockyard looking for pennies in the dirt.
Fraternally,
DV
05-22-2012 | 04:00 PM
#23
Line Holder
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 102
Likes: 0
@Trip7- you are so blind. Delta scope is not a good deal! EVEN for you! If you cannot see that Delta would be SO happy to let YOU fly their 70-seat jet at child labor wages for the REST of your career you will never get it.
70-seat mainline scope is ABSOLUTELY critical and YOU should want it. Scope says fly the airplane here (at delta,) as many as you want.
Why is that important? Because it gives YOU a job! Would you rather stay in the left seat on a 70-seat jet for your career or get to a mainline? With scope....YOU have a job at mainline, with a seniority number, with retirement, and with the prospect of flying something larger than a 70-seat jet this DECADE!
70-seat scope is a farce! Anyone can see 50-seats at mainline is out of the question (cost wise.) 70-seat is not....it does and can work....you just have to be willing to see through the BS the company is saying and fight!
70-seat at mainline or pound sand!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
70-seat mainline scope is ABSOLUTELY critical and YOU should want it. Scope says fly the airplane here (at delta,) as many as you want.
Why is that important? Because it gives YOU a job! Would you rather stay in the left seat on a 70-seat jet for your career or get to a mainline? With scope....YOU have a job at mainline, with a seniority number, with retirement, and with the prospect of flying something larger than a 70-seat jet this DECADE!
70-seat scope is a farce! Anyone can see 50-seats at mainline is out of the question (cost wise.) 70-seat is not....it does and can work....you just have to be willing to see through the BS the company is saying and fight!
70-seat at mainline or pound sand!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
05-22-2012 | 04:06 PM
#24
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 303
Likes: 0
From: 767 F/O
I'm kinda repeating something from another thread, but can't we get reasonable scope protection from a solid mainline / express block hour ratio? UAL is stopped at 50% in the current contract and that's the only thing that has prevented management from shifting even more flying to express (they're up against the contractual limit). Can we get reasonable scope protection by changing that ratio to something like 25% express block hours max AND limiting airplane size to 70 seats ? Looking for answers, not flames here. What is the consensus for the best way to protect scope?
I've often thought that we could give up "size" scope by getting a contractual clause that Express can't fly anything over 250 nm. That would eliminate the RJ flights from IAD to Austin, COS, etc. There SHOULD NOT be Express flights from IAD to COS direct.
I've often thought that we could give up "size" scope by getting a contractual clause that Express can't fly anything over 250 nm. That would eliminate the RJ flights from IAD to Austin, COS, etc. There SHOULD NOT be Express flights from IAD to COS direct.
05-22-2012 | 06:01 PM
#25
Keep Calm Chive ON
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 2,086
Likes: 0
From: Boeing's Plastic Jet Button Pusher - 787
IAD-COS @1450 NM's roughly....
vs
DFW-SFO @1470 NM's roughly....
In their "Northern Hemisphere RJ," SkyWest flys 3 to 4 flights a day (depending on days of the week) DFW-SFO.....THAT's the kinda segment that needs to STOP!!
Per the 2012 stats, UAL flys a 70 Seat RJ multiple times a day from the 9th (DFW)---->12th (SFO) Largest City in the Nation?
GMAFB.....Just another example as to how SCOPE needs to be brought in check, NOW.
05-22-2012 | 06:15 PM
#26
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 1,559
Likes: 0
From: A Nobody
There are too many conversations about the size, route length and customer satisfaction of the RJs. Leave that stuff to marketing. What counts is who flys them and how much they get paid.
The problem with ALPA has never been RJs it has been the, "we want to fly big jets" syndrome while we thump our chests. RJs and Q400s are airplanes which carry people and or freight and thus deserve professional pilots who get paid a professional rates. Additionally the pilots also deserve the quality training of us "big boys" and adequate rest and time off for their personal lives. This is what "scope" should be about.
Now I have said for over twenty years the mentality of who owns airplanes (buy and fly) is ridiculous in today's modern financing world. I would bet United Airlines actually owns very few airplanes and capital leases most of them. So my thoughts have always been United branded airplanes, no matter what size, need to be flown by United pilots who are covered under the United Pilot contract.
Scope can be so clean and simple, United provides the pilots who fly the airplanes and let Skywest or whoever take the financial risk of ownership.
But we have to keep the big jets in the big pay so it will never happen.
Just rambling tonight.
The problem with ALPA has never been RJs it has been the, "we want to fly big jets" syndrome while we thump our chests. RJs and Q400s are airplanes which carry people and or freight and thus deserve professional pilots who get paid a professional rates. Additionally the pilots also deserve the quality training of us "big boys" and adequate rest and time off for their personal lives. This is what "scope" should be about.
Now I have said for over twenty years the mentality of who owns airplanes (buy and fly) is ridiculous in today's modern financing world. I would bet United Airlines actually owns very few airplanes and capital leases most of them. So my thoughts have always been United branded airplanes, no matter what size, need to be flown by United pilots who are covered under the United Pilot contract.
Scope can be so clean and simple, United provides the pilots who fly the airplanes and let Skywest or whoever take the financial risk of ownership.
But we have to keep the big jets in the big pay so it will never happen.
Just rambling tonight.
05-22-2012 | 06:18 PM
#27
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 1,559
Likes: 0
From: A Nobody
Let's see....
Who schedules the RJs? United.
Who provides the gates? United.
Who pays for the fuel? United.
Who provides the ticketing and reservation computers? United.
Why not take it a step further and have United provide the pilots?
Radical thinking will cease, we have a debate to run about whose jet is bigger.
Who schedules the RJs? United.
Who provides the gates? United.
Who pays for the fuel? United.
Who provides the ticketing and reservation computers? United.
Why not take it a step further and have United provide the pilots?
Radical thinking will cease, we have a debate to run about whose jet is bigger.
05-22-2012 | 07:37 PM
#28
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jun 2011
Posts: 467
Likes: 0
The marketing department wants their pilots to be available for work in the same manner as a migrant farm worker picking strawberries in california. Once the harvest is picked marketing will "call you up" back up to the A team around Thanksgiving and then at Christmas. The rest of the time they'll have their RJ's flying it.
Pilots now are nothing more than migrant farm workers with wings.
It must stop.
05-23-2012 | 05:45 AM
#29
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 6,144
Likes: 203
@Trip7- you are so blind. Delta scope is not a good deal! EVEN for you! If you cannot see that Delta would be SO happy to let YOU fly their 70-seat jet at child labor wages for the REST of your career you will never get it.
70-seat mainline scope is ABSOLUTELY critical and YOU should want it. Scope says fly the airplane here (at delta,) as many as you want.
Why is that important? Because it gives YOU a job! Would you rather stay in the left seat on a 70-seat jet for your career or get to a mainline? With scope....YOU have a job at mainline, with a seniority number, with retirement, and with the prospect of flying something larger than a 70-seat jet this DECADE!
70-seat scope is a farce! Anyone can see 50-seats at mainline is out of the question (cost wise.) 70-seat is not....it does and can work....you just have to be willing to see through the BS the company is saying and fight!
70-seat at mainline or pound sand!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
70-seat mainline scope is ABSOLUTELY critical and YOU should want it. Scope says fly the airplane here (at delta,) as many as you want.
Why is that important? Because it gives YOU a job! Would you rather stay in the left seat on a 70-seat jet for your career or get to a mainline? With scope....YOU have a job at mainline, with a seniority number, with retirement, and with the prospect of flying something larger than a 70-seat jet this DECADE!
70-seat scope is a farce! Anyone can see 50-seats at mainline is out of the question (cost wise.) 70-seat is not....it does and can work....you just have to be willing to see through the BS the company is saying and fight!
70-seat at mainline or pound sand!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
70-seat or pound sand? They indeed will pound sand and continue to let you fly under a bankruptcy contract while Delta pilots enjoy upgrades, movement, and 50% better pay and benefits than UniCal pilots all because you want the all or nothing home run on scope.
Eventually you will tire of pounding your fist on the table and agree to a reasonable scope deal. But the money you could have made had you been reasonable earlier, you will never get back. Time value of money, this is something management understands, and pilots do to. And you wonder why they keep winning
Once again, good luck fellas
05-23-2012 | 06:00 AM
#30
Bracing for Fallacies
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 3,543
Likes: 0
From: In favor of good things, not in favor of bad things
No, you are so blind by emotional reaction from scope you keep stepping over dollars searching for pennies. The Delta TA news dropped regional airline stock prices. Why? Because they will have much less business in the future. DCI currently flies about 40% of Delta's total block hours. That stands to drop to around 25% and contractually protected. If mainline flying decreases so will regional. Delta is protected to add over 800 pilot jobs to mainline because of the 717 deal. Add in the upcoming retirements, there will be plenty of movement to mainline.
70-seat or pound sand? They indeed will pound sand and continue to let you fly under a bankruptcy contract while Delta pilots enjoy upgrades, movement, and 50% better pay and benefits than UniCal pilots all because you want the all or nothing home run on scope.
Eventually you will tire of pounding your fist on the table and agree to a reasonable scope deal. But the money you could have made had you been reasonable earlier, you will never get back. Time value of money, this is something management understands, and pilots do to. And you wonder why they keep winning
Once again, good luck fellas
70-seat or pound sand? They indeed will pound sand and continue to let you fly under a bankruptcy contract while Delta pilots enjoy upgrades, movement, and 50% better pay and benefits than UniCal pilots all because you want the all or nothing home run on scope.
Eventually you will tire of pounding your fist on the table and agree to a reasonable scope deal. But the money you could have made had you been reasonable earlier, you will never get back. Time value of money, this is something management understands, and pilots do to. And you wonder why they keep winning
Once again, good luck fellas
