Sunvox

This is meaningless and pure entertainment so nobody should get bent out of shape if they don't like my thoughts. Make your own guess and we'll have a pool to see who get's closest to guessing their number on the new ISL.

I begin with my summation of the relevant discussion in the US Air/Am West and DAL/NWA award.

US Air/Am West

• US Air was going out of business so career expectations were almost nil.
• Putting furloughees in with active pilots would be unfair to Am West junior pilots and subject them to risk of furlough.
• US Air does bring large planes and foreign routes so they get credit for category and class ratios.

DAL/NWA

• Career expectations were mostly the same.
• NWA did have 747 which is coveted by pilots.
• NWA was set to lose older pilots faster than DAL.
• No evidence that NWA was "right sized" for merger so no furloughee credit.
• WB/NB ratio similar.

then a summary of the actual award:

US Air

• ratios like 2:1 for WB then 1:1 for NB
• top couple hundred US Air guys go on top because of A330
• only "active" pilots in the list

DAL/NWA

• "pull and plug" gave "super seniority" to those expecting a 400 bid in the near future.
• ratio distribution based on WB/NB gave slight boost to NWA.

Likely UAL/CAL logic based on history and ALPA policy:

• UAL gets some pilots at the top for 747, then the first couple thousand pilots are mixed in a ratio around 2:1. Then the remaining pilots are mixed on an even ratio that represents the remaining numbers.

BUT

here's the kicker that I think will be different. I think the list will include some of the UAL furloughees, and here's my logic:

• Looking at the 2 companies block hour ratios pre-merger it is plain to see that UAL represents a predominantly WB international network and CAL a predominantly NB national network, but together the synergies are enormous.
• In 2010, DAL, AA, and CAL (the remaining legacy carriers) all had NB replacement and/or growth orders. Only UAL did not. Obviously UAL was counting on the CAL side to fulfill their future NB need, and that along with industry rationalization was why UAL 737 were removed with no replacement.
• Unlike NWA, UAL did not dramatically increase RJ feeder flying or order 76 seaters prior to the merger.
• Unlike NWA, UAL DID announce major alliance shifts to include coordinating NB feed with CAL prior to the merger.
• Immediately following the merger CAL hired 1/3 of all UAL furloughees to staff their 737 fleet, and only about 40% of UAL furloughees are accepting recall and half of them are at CAL so the UAL pilots flying for CAL today represent half the number of pilots that can be expected to return.
• Unlike US Air, UAL HAD the POTENTIAL to operate independently as their costs were among the lowest in the industry and their global network was second only to DAL post BK so furloughees had cause to expect future advancement.

SO . . . .

the list gets integrated as follows based on a ratio of 111 WB/359 versus 46 WB/335, approximately 400 747 pilots, and about 18 WB pilots per plane.


UAL 0 to 400 to 1800 to 6400 (5400 to 6400 are furloughees)
CAL 0 to 000 to 0850 to 4800


based on my current number of 4322 I end up at:

(4322-1800)/(6400-1800)*(11200-2650)+2650=7352

and I match up with a CAL guy:

(4322-1800)/(6400-1800)*(4800-850)+850 = 3022

so I'm a 4/1996 hire and I end up next to a 1/2001 hire and I'm 67% in L-UAL and I end up 66% in the ISL.




so I predict my new seniority number will be 7352.



The only guys that get "screwed" are the CAL guys hired after the fall of 2006 starting around number 3950 who are merged with the UAL furloughees, and before you say ALPA policy doesn't allow this it only says you can't leap frog someone on your own companies list so in this case UAL furloughees do not leap frog any UAL pilots, and the fact remains for CAL post '06 hires, their W2 stays the same, they don't get bumped, and have essentially the same career expectations as before, but the furloughees get some tiny credit for longevity and working for a predominantly WB company pre-merger.


Anyways, this is totally worthless as it has no bearing on anything and is merely an exercise in mental gymnastics that you can hate or love or whatever, but I had fun going thru the numbers.

Wrsofked

I think your methodology would equate to junior Cal pilots relative seniority being reduced beyond reasonable levels. Fairness doesn't stop below some arbitrary percentage. I do think active service time for furloughees (LUAL service) should obviously have some weight. I can't see that placing them above any cal pilot with more active service regardless of hire date.

All pure speculation..

Sunvox

This is NOT arguing just saying . . . in my SWAG I line up with an '01 hire meaning my 17 years of "active service" compares to 12 years of "active service". So I lose big by that measure. Not sure that just because it "flip-flops" towards the end of the list that that would make a difference. It all boils down for me to the question of how to give the furloughees credit in this particular merger. Maybe they'll be stapled, but I really don't think so and trying to come up with a creative way to merge them without "harming" the junior CAL pilots seems all but impossible. You're right though . . .

All pure speculation

LCAL dude

Wrsofked

Yep not arguing either....BUT in any scenario where you (not
you personally, but anybody) come out a percent more senior than you were, you didn't "lose" anything. Obviously it might happen that way, if so I would consider that a win.

gofastmopar

Interesting... I only know a little bit about the DL/NW merger... It wasn't set up to be relative seniority, but came out real close for the majority of the pilots..

SpecialTracking

This is ridiculous to the point of embarrassing.

Sunvox

What part of the word "entertainment" do you not understand?

Are you taking this somehow seriously and are you really wound that tight?

If you really find it embarrassing then why did you feel compelled to repy?


Sheesh

Myboyblue

My guess.

debate all you want.. argue all hours till the wee hours of the morning..break it down anyway you want.. each legacy carrier has their good/bad and a this and a that....the bottom line


98% of all active pilots end up within 1% of their current relative sr at the announcement of merger.

SpecialTracking

Not wound tight, not taking it seriously, it's just pointless. Kind of like Jerry Springer with two trailer trash hillbillies (no offense to hillbillies) fighting on stage over Darla Jean. Paternity test anyone?

sheesh