I grasp the math part ... i.e. estimating what seniority percentile you may potentially hold when one retires at age 65 ... The conjecture part is the statement that a UAL (any and all) pilot will have a better long term career expectation than a CAL pilot (any and all), had there not been a merger ... Could you please explain how you came to this conclusion?

What was classless and insulting was the CAL proposal. You don't like what he said? Classless? Really? Perhaps his assessment was honest and you just don't like it? The CAL proposal was a shot at the moon. Staple the bottom quarter of the UAL list? Sure. That'll happen. I'm glad he used the term ridiculous. Call a spade a spade. Perfect.

Scott

There is an economic concept called "ceteris paribus". In plain english it means "all other things being equal".

Using this theory, we can do two things. We can take each list of pilots at each separate airline, how many jobs in each seat, and time progress known variables (like retirements), leaving out unknown variables, and maintain the status quo in all other respects. We can calculate exactly where pilots would sit each year as other pilots retire. We can project what seats they'd sit in, etc. Each pilots can be given a "value" for their career. Not just where they sit in the end, but the entire value for the whole career.

We can do the same thing with both lists combined, moving pilots on each list up and down until the same values on each side are attained (or at least the same ratios to previous values are attained).

So a perfect example is the CAL list that was proposed. Many pilots have actually done a "me too" type analysis where they looked at where they were supposed to retire, and where they would end up on the combined list. If a pilot was supposed to retire #500, and now its #4,000 obviously that doesn't make sense. Same on the CAL side.

Some pilots are on furlough. They'd get zero credit for years they aren't flying, but then as pilots retire (ceteris paribus) they come back to work. They continue to upgrade and get a value for their career.

The question is simple, does a pilot on furlough at UAL have a better career expectation that one working at CAL? The entire career, including time on furlough.

Since UAL has mroe widebody jobs than CAL, and more Captain jobs as well, the argument is that a UAL pilot over the same number of years will have more chances to upgrade into higher paying equipment.

It doesn't take a genius to see that UAL's 3 times + as many widebody aircraft, with only 20% more pilots means overall we will fly bigger equipment over more time, paying more, etc.

I'd even say its "intuitively obvious even to the most casual observer".

UAL had more bases and more aircraft types in each base. That in itself requires more pilots, not individual pilots flying more. UAL HAD better work rules, which is the other side of the more pilot equation.

We had more pilot bases because we were a BIGGER AIRLINE.

OMG LOL.

OK. I'll bite. As a 2006 hire at CAL I can hold Captain now and would have been a WB Captain for my last 10 years with CAL with our current WB and NB numbers. For those that are saying that the merger is the only way I would've ever been a widebody Captain, that is simply not true.

Tmac,
Don't bother speaking logic. Everyone is set on their own belief whether it is right or wrong. As LAX pointed to about their career and pay.

Tilton was leading their company to two paths. Those paths being bankruptcy again or a merger. The economy and other factors allowed him to scoop it out in the 11th hour and get a merger. He had united leveraged and in a death spiral.

IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND:

Both ALPA National and these arbitrators know full-well that if they deliver a combined seniority list that schittz on the UAL pilots (the larger group), that ALPA is FINISHED at UAL, and consequently that ALPA National might be in serious jeopardy. Think those arbitrators are gonna bite the hand that feeds them? They don't want another US Air on their hands.

I agree, it still stinks that we at CAL have to now call ourselves United. I wish we would have just let UAL go out of business and bought there excess fat that we would want and let the rest be sent elsewhere.

The best part is that if I get merged in with 1995 UAL people it will be like being hired at UAL when I was a senior in high school!! I could not be senior to myself if I tried!!

In the meantime I will just fly around left seat in the 737 and enjoy it.

OMG.........Like totally !

Lax pilot has been hanging out on the west coast too much.


WERE.

More airplane types, more bases, more pilots...........Same number of airplanes.

Sounds like over staffed to me.