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-   -   Important to keep in mind (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/united/74502-important-keep-mind.html)

LAX Pilot 04-27-2013 11:55 AM


Originally Posted by SEDPA (Post 1399128)
Conjecture ... can you tell us how you arrived at this conclusion?

Dude it's not conjecture. It's MATH.

Pilotbiffster 04-27-2013 12:28 PM


Originally Posted by SEDPA (Post 1399128)
Conjecture ... can you tell us how you arrived at this conclusion?

Certainly .. Take the list of both pilot groups, in spreadsheet format, filter out one group, then sort on birth date. Take arbitrary pilot, delete all those pilots older than him (they retire before said arbitrary pilot). Now sort remaining list based on date of hire. This will show number of pilots senior to said arbitrary pilot on the day he retires and his relative seniority. You can do this for each and every year. Rerun the projection for the arbitrary pilot 5 years into the future by just deleting the pilots that were born in 1953 and earlier. Rerun the projection for 10 years by deleting pilots that were born in 1958 and earlier.

Now, do the projection with both pilot groups at the 5 10 and 15 year mark and you'll see how the CAL 2007 hires will ALL be flying metal that they had never any hopes to fly.

So, they made their career choice to finish their career as a 737 captain, and that's exactly where they should finish up, not sitting in the left seat of a 747 for the last 15 years of their career.

LAX Pilot 04-27-2013 12:37 PM


Originally Posted by Pilotbiffster (Post 1399218)
Certainly .. Take the list of both pilot groups, in spreadsheet format, filter out one group, then sort on birth date. Take arbitrary pilot, delete all those pilots older than him (they retire before said arbitrary pilot). Now sort remaining list based on date of hire. This will show number of pilots senior to said arbitrary pilot on the day he retires and his relative seniority. You can do this for each and every year. Rerun the projection for the arbitrary pilot 5 years into the future by just deleting the pilots that were born in 1953 and earlier. Rerun the projection for 10 years by deleting pilots that were born in 1958 and earlier.

Now, do the projection with both pilot groups at the 5 10 and 15 year mark and you'll see how the CAL 2007 hires will ALL be flying metal that they had never any hopes to fly.

So, they made their career choice to finish their career as a 737 captain, and that's exactly where they should finish up, not sitting in the left seat of a 747 for the last 15 years of their career.

Exactly. I'd be shocked if the UAL proposed seniority list doesn't do this exact analysis.

Amazing how you can use simple math to quantify something like career expectations instead of just relying on talking points and hyperbole.

tailwheel48 04-27-2013 01:16 PM


Originally Posted by Pilotbiffster (Post 1399151)
So what YOU'RE saying is, absent a merger, I retire in the top 10% of the seniority list; with a merger and the "proposed" CAL SLI, I retire at the 45% mark. Meanwhile, the entire widebody fleet is filled with CAL guys that would have never seen a widebody captain's seat without the merger. I'm sure that factored in to these young jedis' minds when they took a job at CAL (rolling my eyes).

Absent the merger, United was destined to disappear much like the dinosaur they resembled. How's that for career expectations?

Shrek 04-27-2013 01:21 PM


Originally Posted by tailwheel48 (Post 1399240)
Absent the merger, United was destined to disappear much like the dinosaur they resembled. How's that for career expectations?

Yeah - instead we just bought you instead.

Pilotbiffster 04-27-2013 01:33 PM


Originally Posted by tailwheel48 (Post 1399240)
Absent the merger, United was destined to disappear much like the dinosaur they resembled. How's that for career expectations?

That is sooooo patently false that even CAL counsel didn't try to spread that lie. I can do the same thing, and it's backed by as much evidence as your falsehood: Absent the merger, CAL was destined to disappear like the small regiional carriers of the past (Oh, but actually Smisek did say something to that effect).

See how easy it is. Now, go to the spreadsheet and do some MEANINGFUL extrapolation of career expectations and check back in :).

Staller 04-27-2013 01:53 PM

..........mistake.............

block plus 04-27-2013 02:18 PM

Don't want to fly the 747 that won't be here. Absent merger capt seat in 2yrs. With merger capt seat in two yrs

Shrek 04-27-2013 03:01 PM


Originally Posted by block plus (Post 1399268)
Don't want to fly the 747 that won't be here. Absent merger capt seat in 2yrs. With merger capt seat in two yrs

Put the pipe down.

Step back - collect your thoughts and you will be more coherent.

Maxepr1 04-27-2013 03:16 PM


Originally Posted by LAX Pilot (Post 1399192)
My favorite part was when the UAL attorney was cross examining one of the CAL merger committee members and said "Obviously I'm not going to get you to admit your proposal is ridiculous".

I liked the fact that the member wasn't goaded in to a classless response like the one fruend got away with... I hope it made you feel real good!!! Simple little zinger, for your simple mind... I'm sure there will be more to come to keep you entertained.... Good luck with your number....


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