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Old 05-21-2013, 07:27 AM   #11  
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Back to topic , by my numbers using April 2013 fleet plan I show with these new orders 174 70 seaters and 70 76 seaters on property for 244 total by end 2015. Do I see this right as only 11 hulls off from hitting the 255 70/76 seater scope choke wall?
Interesting that when you look at the UAL Investor Fleet info for Apr (latest one..)
Mainline Fleet end of 2012 = 702
Mainline Fleet end of 2013 = 690!

The decreases are mostly LUAL 757-2's.

RJ Fleet end of 2012 = 551
RJ Fleet end of 2013 = 574!

The increase are Q400's and E145's.

A net increase for United Airlines of 11 Aircraft. So they can say they are growing and have a fleet of 1264 aircraft.. when we (Mainline Pilots) are actually seeing our numbers decrease.

Sucks
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Old 05-21-2013, 07:29 AM   #12  
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I think you're right.. caveat being, that these new birds start to trickle in starting 1st quarter 2014 and go through 2016. It will be interesting to see if they replace some of the older 70 seaters with newer ones, and what happens to the 50 seat RJ fleet.
Also in the mix is the Q400~

Interesting times we live in. Luckily we have ALOT of retirements.. cause I think we will see very slow growth (if any) on the mainline side of the house for the next few years.

Motch

"As United inducts the new aircraft into the United Express fleet, the company will remove some less efficient regional aircraft from the fleet. The E175s will consume less fuel per seat and will have less CO2 emissions per seat than the aircraft they replace."

Lets hope they stick to this and dont pull a ORD-SJU, its no good until two months latter and then its great again.
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Old 05-21-2013, 07:42 AM   #13  
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Originally Posted by dvhighdrive88:1413306
Lads,

Go find a thread about the contract please!

Back to topic , by my numbers using April 2013 fleet plan I show with these new orders 174 70 seaters and 70 76 seaters on property for 244 total by end 2015. Do I see this right as only 11 hulls off from hitting the 255 70/76 seater scope choke wall?
According to the union there are 190 70 seaters in the UAX system:



The JCBA Scope Story – by KC Mueller, UALMEC Domestic Code Share Chairman, Scope SME

Delta Scope or a Scope Choke? Late in the summer of 2012 it became clear the United Pilots were going to have to emulate “Delta Scope” in the JCBA. (223 76-seat jets, 102 70-seat jets [325 big 223+102] and 125 50-seat jets) for a RJ fleet total of 450. 325 big (70/76) and 125 small (50). Included in “Delta Scope” was a substantial and permanent shift in flying from the Express to the Mainline via language, plus a new small Mainlineaircraft type. Added together, “Delta Scope was truly impressive and delivered all the goals held dear by Delta Pilots”; shrinking Express and growing Mainline under a new CBA that,when it becomes amendable, will leave the Delta Pilots in a position of strength regarding Express for the next CBA cycle. But while Delta Scope answered almost all the pattern bargained deficiencies of the last 20 years, your Scope SME’s saw one soft spot. The B717 airframe was already almost 15 years old. There was one issue still left to resolve before this struggle was over:The “gap-in-gauge” @ 100 seats.

Strategically, this RJ War was always going to 100 seats and it won’t be over until we have that fight – no doubt about it. That fight wasn’t quite over at DAL. If we could capture all the best of Delta plus fix that issue, we would have ended forever the growth potential of UAX and the ability of UAX to threaten the Mainline. While much can be said of the tortured path all network pilot groups have traveled seeking to balance jobs and marketing realities surrounding the RJ the opportunity to reflect and relax will never arrive until the 100 seat jet is safely in the hands of Mainline Pilots and the War is over.

That was the set-up when we began negotiating “Delta scope” in the summer of 2012.

This challenge was coupled with another. At United there were no 76 seat RJ’s. Delta started C2012 with 120, and all the improvements and protections for the Delta Pilots didn’t start until 154 76 seat jets were on the property. How do we get from zero 76 seat jets to all that Delta agreed to while also achieving what the United Pilots deserved at the outset, namely the security that transfer of flying from UAL to UAX was inverted by the JCBA? The company was willing to agree to the “Delta” end state: 450 hulls, 325 big ( 223/102 ) and 125 small, the seat and weight limits, the shift in flying, the no-furlough clause, the mileage restriction, the retirement of the 50 seaters, but there was no clear path to the 154th 76 seat jet. After that the Delta language could be copied perfectly. But we were on our own from 0 to 154.

It is because of this the Section 1-C-1 language in the JCBA is so complex and difficult to understand. We had to invent language that would get United pilots from 0-154 76 seat jets while also getting United pilots what they deserve ( shrinking UAX ) and then overlay that language on top of the Delta language. We have two scenarios, if you will, built into our UAX language (Section 1-C-1) and the Company will ultimately decide which path we travel. What’s Important for the United Pilots to understand is…. both paths accomplish almost the same thing. The Company will either deliver “Delta Scope” in its complete form or fall into a UAX “Scope Choke”.

Since “Delta Scope” is well understood and its value to Pilots very straight forward, let’s examine the language crafted that results in the “Scope Choke”; our nickname for the event that occurs should the Company attempt to deny United Pilots the “New Narrow-body” by never flying more than 153 76-seat jets. On Jan 1, 2014, the Company obtains the right to fly 130 76-seat RJ’s inside a new limit of 255 UAX aircraft of 51-76 seats. Currently, United flies approximately 190 aircraft that meet that definition, and they have no limit. 255 – 190 = 65. Without the “New Narrow-body” being delivered to United Pilots the limit of 255 will apply for the life of the JCBA. In just over 3 years the Company has scheduled over 150 50-seat RJ retirements simply for economic reasons. The 50-seat RJ clearly represents the “fleet of the past” while the new restriction is placed on the “fleet of the future”, aircraft of 51-76 seats. Moving forward from Jan 1, 2014, while the “fleet of the past” is dying the “fleet of the future” is severely restricted. Did the Company get 130 76 seat RJ’s? Not really. 255 – 190 = 65. The Company will get 65 76 seat RJ’s if they don’t get any more Q400’s or 70 seat RJ’s but after the 65th hull they are merely exchanging a 70 seat hull for a 76 seat one. That is 6 seats net, for each 76 seat RJ after the 65th. Not the target, but collateral damage we should score.

Besides that, regardless of how the Company allocates its 255 hulls within our new restrictions the 50-seat RJ fleet is dying. With that and no other action by the Company UAX is eventually headed to a new maximum RJ fleet of 255. Contrast that with today’s UAX RJ fleet of over 500. If the Company Mainline fleet does not grow at all over the next 6 years the UAX fleet will still shrink by almost 40% just through 50-seat RJ retirements. Even without the language forcing flying from Express to Mainline being triggered (same as Delta, not effective until 154 76-seat RJ’s) we are forcing flying from UAX to the Mainline or out the door to a competitor. Without all of “Delta Scope”, being copied by the Company the UAX fleet will soon simply be too small for the Company’s marketing needs. Once this “Scope Choke” hits the Company has only one way out: Use the language within the JCBA to grow the 76-seat RJ fleet further, the step we anticipated the Company might not want to do.

That brings the 154th 76-seat jet, which brings our “New Narrow-body” the rest of 1-C-1-f and -g, and the capstone to the whole strategy. On that day, United’s Pilots will have won the RJ war - our ultimate goal. After two decades of struggle for the dividing line between “Express” and “Mainline” we will have found victory at almost the same place the fight started. The original seat limit United Pilots imposed on UAX in 1991 …..75 Seats (Feeder Scope Mod, 1991).

The UAX language within the JCBA, regardless of which path is chosen by the Company (replicating “Delta Scope” or trying to avoid it - the “Scope Chokeâ€&#157, insures UAX shrinks. We ( Scope SME’s ) actually predict that before the Company will buy the “New Narrow-body “ they will try one last time to avoid it by … ASKING YOU TO SELL IT BACK TO THEM. When is the last time the Company asked you to modify your Express Scope for them?

The UAX piece of the JCBA improves the pattern in pattern bargaining and either improves on Delta Scope or crushes UAX. This was our goal; develop language that recreates and compelsthe Company to replicate the Delta Express Fleet in case they have second thoughts. Either way, with this JCBA the balance of power and flying returns to our Pilots. Then, with the 100 seat jet in our hands, we cement it there.
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Old 05-21-2013, 07:49 AM   #14  
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Company cannot place last 5 aircraft unless they park a 5 70 seaters or SNB is on property.
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Old 05-21-2013, 08:00 AM   #15  
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Lads,

Go find a thread about the contract please!

Back to topic , by my numbers using April 2013 fleet plan I show with these new orders 174 70 seaters and 70 76 seaters on property for 244 total by end 2015. Do I see this right as only 11 hulls off from hitting the 255 70/76 seater scope choke wall?
Actually.... for the end of the year 2013, United's 4/25/2013 Investor Update shows 32 Q400s, in addition to the 115 CRJ700s and 38 EMB170s. Thats 185 + 70 EMB175s = 255. So no more 76 seaters unless they park 70 seaters. (up to 153 of the 255 jets can be 76 seaters after Jan 2016).

UAX block hours must be </= to 120% of narrowbody block hours. This will dictate how many 50 seaters end up in the desert as the new jets arrive.

To go any higher than 255 (70+76) or more than 153 (76) after 2016, UAL has to add a new small NB to mainline and the block hour ratio declines from 120% of nb block hours by a scale of how many 76 seaters they operate.

Sled
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Old 05-21-2013, 08:16 AM   #16  
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According to the union there are 190 70 seaters in the UAX system:
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Company cannot place last 5 aircraft unless they park a 5 70 seaters or SNB is on property.
End of 2013 Fleet Plan-

Q400 = 32
CRJ7 = 115
E170 = 38

Total = 185

Therefore, based on the 30 + 40 Large RJ's Ordered..
All can be placed on Property.
Also, these are current numbers.
Not sure how old the oldest CRJ7's and E170's are. There could always be the possibility of swapping out on that level too.
Not to mention, these new RJ's are set to arrive 1Q2014 and go out to 2014/2016.

No matter how you try to paint this, this is good for the company and bad for the mainline UAL Pilot.
It is also bad for the RJ Pilot in that it allows all the RJ Carriers to start fighting amongst themselves for these aircraft.. especially if they are replacement aircraft (to some degree) for 50 seaters.
This aircraft hold 40% more passengers than a 50 seater... what sort of payscale will it pay when compared to a 50 seater?

The RJ Carriers Management will try to entice the newbies with quick upgrades and a signing bonus (with a payback clause if you leave early). Maybe/Hopefully the top end of the list will get hired somewhere (to start at the bottom and be furlough fodder come 2017 and beyond). The mid level will move up.. but to what payscale and work rules? The bottom guys will be happy to be flying a nice new big shiny jet (SJS).
But in the end, it sucks for us all... except for management (if they don't do the right thing and treat their employees with Dignity and Respect)

Motch

PS> What ever happened to the issue with UAX employees having to start paying a non rev fee? Did that go away or did the outrage just die?

Last edited by horrido27; 05-21-2013 at 08:21 AM. Reason: Edit Q400 numbers
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Old 05-21-2013, 08:25 AM   #17  
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Actually.... for the end of the year 2013, United's 4/25/2013 Investor Update shows 32 Q400s, in addition to the 115 CRJ700s and 38 EMB170s. Thats 185 + 70 EMB175s = 255. So no more 76 seaters unless they park 70 seaters. (up to 153 of the 255 jets can be 76 seaters after Jan 2016).

UAX block hours must be </= to 120% of narrowbody block hours. This will dictate how many 50 seaters end up in the desert as the new jets arrive.

To go any higher than 255 (70+76) or more than 153 (76) after 2016, UAL has to add a new small NB to mainline and the block hour ratio declines from 120% of nb block hours by a scale of how many 76 seaters they operate.

Sled
Perfect post.

So now, the only question going forward (come 2014) is how we will keep track of the Block hours, the Hub to Hub flying, and the 900nm flying.

The company wasted no time in getting their max out of the SCOPE Section (near term). But they are unable to get required crew meals nor are they willing to address the 757-200 Crew Rest issue.

Sucks

Motch
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Old 05-21-2013, 08:36 AM   #18  
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Actually.... for the end of the year 2013, United's 4/25/2013 Investor Update shows 32 Q400s, in addition to the 115 CRJ700s and 38 EMB170s. Thats 185 + 70 EMB175s = 255. So no more 76 seaters unless they park 70 seaters. (up to 153 of the 255 jets can be 76 seaters after Jan 2016).

UAX block hours must be </= to 120% of narrowbody block hours. This will dictate how many 50 seaters end up in the desert as the new jets arrive.

To go any higher than 255 (70+76) or more than 153 (76) after 2016, UAL has to add a new small NB to mainline and the block hour ratio declines from 120% of nb block hours by a scale of how many 76 seaters they operate.

Sled
Thank you for addressing this. Not surprising in essence but somewhat interesting they went right to the 255 as quickly as they did. So what happens now to the RJ fleet? If they stay at 255 70/76 seaters and 450 max eventually there will be no SNB orders. The question is can they compete with a RJ fleet of such design and will the "scope choke" ever be crossed?
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Old 05-21-2013, 08:51 AM   #19  
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Scope is about job protection. If we end up with a total number of less pilots flying at express we won this round of scope. Yes the bigger gauge is a threat but at the end of the day if we have less outsourced pilots we have achieved our objective.

Now I hope we have more dignity than when the reverse happened and take the high road as this process will more than likely end up with some professionals out of a job at one or more of our express carriers.
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Old 05-21-2013, 09:12 AM   #20  
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Originally Posted by jsled View Post
Actually.... for the end of the year 2013, United's 4/25/2013 Investor Update shows 32 Q400s, in addition to the 115 CRJ700s and 38 EMB170s. Thats 185 + 70 EMB175s = 255. So no more 76 seaters unless they park 70 seaters. (up to 153 of the 255 jets can be 76 seaters after Jan 2016).

UAX block hours must be </= to 120% of narrowbody block hours. This will dictate how many 50 seaters end up in the desert as the new jets arrive.

To go any higher than 255 (70+76) or more than 153 (76) after 2016, UAL has to add a new small NB to mainline and the block hour ratio declines from 120% of nb block hours by a scale of how many 76 seaters they operate.

Sled
Thank you for addressing this. Not surprising in essence but somewhat interesting they went right to the 255 as quickly as they did. So what happens now to the RJ fleet? If they stay at 255 70/76 seaters and 450 max eventually there will be no SNB orders. The question is can they compete with a RJ fleet of such design and will the "scope choke" ever be crossed?
The company still has hundreds are 50 seaters flying around that they will want to be rid of ASAP. That lift has to be replaced somewhere, and for the company to add any more large RJs, they must establish a SNB aircraft at mainline.

Scope Choke will be crossed Imo. It must be crossed or UAL will be at an serious economic disadvantage to DAL and the new AA
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