Airline Pilot Central Forums - When will bidding mania begin?

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Quote:

Originally Posted by SpecialTracking (Post 1485031)

Good gawd that brings a tear to my eye thinking of the go go 90's.

You remember 747 FO in HNL going unfilled in 1997? Man those were fun times. I think the combination of both pilot groups plus the retirements could make the next few years very interesting especially if we announce an order for 100 seat jets.

I'm not moving seats anytime soon, but it will be fun to see what happens.

I thought I remember UAL ordering some CS300's? Not many, 30 or so?

Quote:

Originally Posted by LAX Pilot (Post 1485114)

I'm not sure which will be more interesting, watching what happens or how it happens. Kind of like irregular ops in the middle of an id. Just sit back and watch Nero play away.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Probe (Post 1485118)

I thought I remember UAL ordering some CS300's? Not many, 30 or so?

Pre-merger UAL said they were evaluating the C-series. There is currently no announced order.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cadetdrivr (Post 1484939)

Within weeks and more info on the bidding process itself as early as this week. (source: SVP Flight Ops)

This. October will begin the fleshing.

Quote:

Originally Posted by oldmako (Post 1485098)

When I was hired we all got to spend a week in Chicago for kool aid and indoctrination. At that time the head guru of scheduling told us that for EACH 747-400 Captain bid, the company planned on 16 additional moves (all training events) as hundreds of pilots below this Captain had the opportunity to change seats. Bear in mind that at the time we had two different types of 747s along with the DC10, 777, 767, 737NG (300-500 glass CAT 3), 737-200, 727, and Airbus.

IOW, senior rope start F/Os could now have a shot at the right seat of the 400, triple seven guys could now bid the whale, 67 guys the 777, etc etc etc all the way down the line to the 727 Flight Engineers.

Why? Because each seat represented a pay scale HIGHER than the one vacated. Everybody got a raise. Some guys LIKE to chase money and are eager to position themselves to make more of it. Sound familiar? More money caused more bids and more pilot jobs.

Now? A two engine 400,000 pound 67 pays the same as a 4 engine 800,000 pound 747. Decision 83 was tossed in the dumpster. WHY did we give this up? After all, its highly concessionary and pilot negative. I wonder? Anyone? Bueller? Baron?

What a steaming load of effluent. Pay banding, the gift that keeps on taking.

Pay banding, while not perfect, allows a Captain or FO who loves European flying to make the top pay without having to leave his/her senior position on the 76 and chase the 777. While I like Asia and 15+ hour flights, a lot of folks don't. This opens up the 777 (and in your case, the 747) to people who really want to be on the airplane and not just those chasing the $.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toddnel (Post 1485231)

So screw everybody else so a couple 767-400 Capts and FO's can have a high paying short TAFB schedule. Why not just pay the guppies that much and the 747 the least.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toddnel (Post 1485231)

Far from perfect is more like it. Although it "might" prevent folks from chasing equipment for $, same pay for vastly different sizes of aircraft is the wrong way to go. Pilot production used to be tied with equipment flown, heavier and faster meant more money. Pay banding is the first step to same pay for all depending on seat. Longevity pay doesnt make up for it, we will all enjoy a new low average of pay. Seniority has start to become a dirty word in the industry, but if the majority in an airline want to go this route, go for it. You certainly will be unable to switch back once done, though, so be careful of what you agree to.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toddnel (Post 1485231)

Something has to give. The generous company will not raise the lower tiered aircraft up to 400 or 777 rates. The 400 and 777 will in essence be subsidizing higher rates for smaller aircraft by forgoing a pay raise or, taking a cut.

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoCats67 (Post 1484934)

Now that the ISL is done, does anyone have any insight/strong rumor on when the bidding festivities begin?

I took some current staffing numbers from a different post and the departure info from a chief pilot communication to come up with a back of the napkin analysis of the 737.

Disclaimer - "I don't work in Manpower Planning, but I did spend the night at a Holiday Inn Express."

The under/over column is the number of captains understaffed or overstaffed based on what the staffing would be if you directly used the Percent of Total 737 departures to determine the correct staffing for the individual Base. Obviously, this is dull crayon on the level of precision, but at least it give a general idea of where the bids are likely to go. If somebody wants to pull down actual hours in and out of the airports, you could get much more accurate.

base --Captains ---Percentage of Captains --Dep / Month --percent of departures---under/over

EWR------352---------------23.9%--------------------2060-------------------15.4%--------------- 125 over

IAH-------694---------------47.2%--------------------3604-------------------27.0%----------------297 over

CLE-------125---------------8.5%----------------------549---------------------4.1%-----------------65over

ORD-------77----------------5.2%---------------------2317-------------------17.3%----------------178under

DEN-------85----------------5.8%---------------------1704--------------------12.8%---------------102under

SFO-------40----------------2.7%---------------------1924--------------------14.4%----------------172under

LAX-------97----------------6.6%---------------------1203---------------------9.0%-----------------35under

IAD-------0------------------0.0%---------------------665---------------------5.0%----new base? 73under

total----1470-----------------------------------------14026

So based on that it looks like there will be alot of SFO and ORD 737 bids coming.

I think that the IAH and EWR bases will likely see an increase in size of the A320 base in each location, but I haven't really looked at those numbers yet.

Finally, I assume there will be a 787 LAX base opened in short order as well.

So, anybody have any good rumors on when the bidding will begin?

Another night at the Holiday Inn Express, so I looked at the 320 current levels versus departures: Same disclaimer

A320
base---------Capt----% of Capts---Dep/Month--% of Deps-----under/over staff
JFK/EWR-----46------3.1%---------1439---------10.8%---------112 under
IAH-----------48------3.3%---------1989---------14.9%---------171 under
CLE-----------0--------0.0%---------251----------1.9%-----------28 under
ORD----------230-----15.6%--------2284---------17.1%----------21 under
DEN----------237-----16.1%--------1209---------9.0%-----------104 over
SFO----------116-----7.9%---------1560---------11.7%----------56 under
LAX----------109-----7.4%----------715-----------5.4%----------30 over
IAD----------159-----10.8%--------1200----------9.0%----------27 over
total----------945-------------------10647

So, it looks like IAH and EWR/JFK are in for some Airbus bids.

Overall, the biggest openings look to be in SFO, since it looks like they need 320 bids and 737 bids. Understaffed on both sides of the operation!!! So, given that A320 F/O bids have historically gone unfilled there and more recently the 737 F/O bids have gone unfilled there, tell your friends that are looking to get hired, they better start learning how to cheer for the Niners!!