Bumps
 

Looking at the Min/Max on this bid.....What is to stop UCH from issuing a displacement bid for the 756 fleet in IAH (ex-Con)? Bump more junior CAL guys rather than more senior UAL guys (i'm talking FOs here). THen, the more senior UAL guys are "trapped" in the combined 75/76 fleet once they are merged and we can fly each other's metal.

Things that make you go hmmmmm???

Sled

Not if they can't hold Captain. Gonna have to train new 737 FOs anyway as a/c get delivered. I'm talking about bumping OUT of IAH, not into. The Min/Max for both the 756 and 76T in IAH shows a BIG spread. Why not bump out of there where FOs are relatively junior.

Sled

Well I guess a flush bid is in order then .... why are you guys so bump happy?

Not bump happy. But when the CFO says 73 aircraft will be gone in 2.5 years, you wonder how that is going to happen. Add in the stated LAX 747 base closure in the spring and re-opening of ORD 747 (which will result in shinkage of SFO 747) and you have some issues.
I was pointing out that the company MAY choose to bump CAL 756 FOs because the CAL side is more junior and will have less bumping horsepower. It would work if it is done closer to when we start flying each other's jets, although somewhat bs because it is sUAL 757-200s that are disappearing and so we should get the bumps. Wouldn't surprise me though. Just a possibility.

Sled

It does appear that you are bump happy. This is the biggest vacancy bid you guys have seen in 5 years. It's not good enough for you to bid captain, but you have to bump someone out too? Interesting.

As for how people will be displaced, I think the company will continue to staff towards the min # on the bid and reduce it that way. So if there are 100 pilots in the BES and max is 100 min 90 with 10 retirements in that BES they will just staff the 90 and keep going down like that. It will eventually catch up where people will get displaced, but that may take awhile. The FO side will just dwindle down as senior FOs take the upgrade or move to bigger equipment which will take care if itself. There will be some displacements I'm sure, but probably not to the level you are hoping.

Just my guess and I'm usually wrong. But maybe a possibility so the training doesn't cost the company too much money.

Getting a bump does not automatically "bump someone". It allows you to go where you have someone junior to you. It may very well be the only way to get into a base, as these vacancy bids will go senior for some time. Secondary bumps MAY occur, but that is not a given, since there are a lot of 737s scheduled for delivery. The company could slow vacancies, for instance, and prevent secondary bumps. The point being that retirements and attrition MAY not be enough given the aggresive 757 retirement schedule and the planned 747 base swapping.

Sled

We will see if the new combined Manpower Planning is that Savvy.

You are absolutely right that if they are going to issue bumps they should be smart about how they do it. History says that will not happen, but we shall see.

As you point out, in bases that are shrinking or need combining you would want to bump from the junior side just so those that are bumped are limited in their choices. This would apply to IAH 756.

Conversely, you would think they would be smart about other bumps as well. Why are they not bumping out of DEN 320, when that base has a very small number of departures out of DEN compared to the size of the Staffing. Those folks would likely go to the 737 in DEN, which I would assume is where the company wants them to go. Instead they issue 20 Captain vacancies and they will get folks from everywhere coming back home to DEN. Great for us, really dumb for the company!

ORD 737 Cap is the same. They should bump from ORD 767 CAP and ORD 767 F/O, which will be shrinking as the 57s get parked (theoretically). Many junior ORD 67 Captains want to go back to the Guppy. I am an ORD 67 F/O and every reserve Captain I have flown with has said that is what they want to do. Additionaly, every current ORD 67 F/O has the seniority to hold ORD 737 Cap on a bump. So, if they were to bump ORD 67 F/Os, any F/O that wanted to go to ORD 737 Cap could simply volunteer for the bump and get the "bid" that they want. Since the size of the ORD 737 base will undoubtedly grow (almost as many departures as EWR but about 1/3 the size) this would seem to be very good for company, so I doubt they will do it!!!

Instead they will proceed on in ignorance, double their training cost and time and won't be able to execute on the Summer 2014 flying plan, but what else is new!