Vacancy Bid 1508

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Quote: Only seat/mile growth, no advertised block hour growth. No additional pilots needed for this growth. Mil/medical/early outs? Also returning from mil/medical. Net probably low double digits.

400 retirements. Yep.

Not sure why so much hiring. Could they be planning actual block hour growth? Who knows. Hopefully.

No advertised block hour growth.
Maybe all this hiring makes sense if:

-TK moves out of Denver (money on ORD-easier to have Labor keep a watch)
-Good bet vast majority of current Instructors will NOT follow the job there.

-Majority of current Instructors have DEN 737 Cap Seniority..that's where they will go. The more junior ones go to the right seat DEN 737
where they will be in the top 1/3.

-How many DEN displacements can you guess? (Not to mention the HUGE expense of displacements)

-Big vacancy needed for Instructors locating to new TK.

-Takes a WHOLE bunch more time to bring an Instructor on line.
MANY bodies off the line at the same time for good period of time (2 years all told for the process,maybe?)


Bottom line, I think they are PADDING now for the eventual removal of HUNDREDS of pilots off the line required to train, either as instructor or the DEN displaced guys.

I think all this talk of cities bidding so mgmt gets the best deal is just a ruse. Sure, they want to extract as much as they can and are having the cities participate in a bidding war to achieve this. In reality, I believe they have decided from the onset it will be in ORD. If this was really about TOTAL cost, they would keep TK in DEN. Minimize the distance and you minimize cost. One of the largest costs will be the loss of Instructors and how that affects the line/displacements and training pipeline.

The difference in what mgmt extracts out of each city is pocket change.
Moving TK is not about cost, it's all about control...IMHO.
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Quote: Maybe all this hiring makes sense if:

-TK moves out of Denver (money on ORD-easier to have Labor keep a watch)
-Good bet vast majority of current Instructors will NOT follow the job there.

-Majority of current Instructors have DEN 737 Cap Seniority..that's where they will go. The more junior ones go to the right seat DEN 737
where they will be in the top 1/3.

-How many DEN displacements can you guess? (Not to mention the HUGE expense of displacements)

-Big vacancy needed for Instructors locating to new TK.

-Takes a WHOLE bunch more time to bring an Instructor on line.
MANY bodies off the line at the same time for good period of time (2 years all told for the process,maybe?)


Bottom line, I think they are PADDING now for the eventual removal of HUNDREDS of pilots off the line required to train, either as instructor or the DEN displaced guys.

I think all this talk of cities bidding so mgmt gets the best deal is just a ruse. Sure, they want to extract as much as they can and are having the cities participate in a bidding war to achieve this. In reality, I believe they have decided from the onset it will be in ORD. If this was really about TOTAL cost, they would keep TK in DEN. Minimize the distance and you minimize cost. One of the largest costs will be the loss of Instructors and how that affects the line/displacements and training pipeline.

The difference in what mgmt extracts out of each city is pocket change.
Moving TK is not about cost, it's all about control...IMHO.
Good points Boxer. In what ways would they have more control if they moved TK to ORD? To me, that's the worst choice. Houston or Denver is more logical because of costs, previous training locations already there, weather, etc. ORD seems like it would be a disaster. (I'm in no way advocating that UAL MGt uses logic and common sense
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I heard things were hinging on whether Rham Emanual got re-elected as he promised a lot of tax breaks to put the training center in ORD. Since he did get re-elected I would expect an announcement on it soon.
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Quote: Houston or Denver is more logical because of costs, previous training locations already there, weather, etc.
Well, yeah, but Denver is obsolete and Houston is worse. The facility needs to be a clean slate design and if that is the case, it doesn't necessarily HAVE to be in Denver or Houston.

Personally, I don't care where it is. Just get on with it.
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Final unfilled vacancies:

DCA 320 FO 64 UNFILLED
DCA 756 FO 7 UNFILLED
EWR 737 FO 63 UNFILLED
EWR 756 FO 53 UNFILLED
IAH 320 FO 5 UNFILLED
SFO 737 FO 16 UNFILLED

That should give people in the next few classes an idea of where they'll end up ... odds are EWR or DCA. Not to worry; you should be able to bid to somewhere else fairly quickly.
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Quote: Well, yeah, but Denver is obsolete and Houston is worse. The facility needs to be a clean slate design and if that is the case, it doesn't necessarily HAVE to be in Denver or Houston.

Personally, I don't care where it is. Just get on with it.
It doesn't matter where it goes. Houston, Denver, whatever they are building a new facility. DENTK is an obsolete highly expensive building to maintain. Houston is not even remotely large enough to handle the training demand of the combined airline.
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Quote: Final unfilled vacancies:

DCA 320 FO 64 UNFILLED
DCA 756 FO 7 UNFILLED
EWR 737 FO 63 UNFILLED
EWR 756 FO 53 UNFILLED
IAH 320 FO 5 UNFILLED
SFO 737 FO 16 UNFILLED

That should give people in the next few classes an idea of where they'll end up ... odds are EWR or DCA. Not to worry; you should be able to bid to somewhere else fairly quickly.
Are the 737 IAH displacements a for sure thing or is that just speculation at this point? I'm starting class on 4/28 and trying to figure out what the heck to bid. I know 320 FO would be the quickest way in to IAH but haven't heard good things about commuting to DCA for the 320.
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Quote: Have they published the category report yet?
It is now....
and ALL JEFF'D UP!
My initial hire class isn't even on there (L-UAL '08), and another person I know is listed as LTA, which he is not....
SIGH....
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3% increase in mainline airframes doesn't necessarily mean a block hour increase. There are no current plans for mainline block hour increase, according to the company.

We are hiring about 80 a month. We were also hiring at least that many in 78, 2001, and 2008. Right up until we weren't.
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Quote: Maybe all this hiring makes sense if:

-TK moves out of Denver (money on ORD-easier to have Labor keep a watch)
-Good bet vast majority of current Instructors will NOT follow the job there.

-Majority of current Instructors have DEN 737 Cap Seniority..that's where they will go. The more junior ones go to the right seat DEN 737
where they will be in the top 1/3.

-How many DEN displacements can you guess? (Not to mention the HUGE expense of displacements)

-Big vacancy needed for Instructors locating to new TK.

-Takes a WHOLE bunch more time to bring an Instructor on line.
MANY bodies off the line at the same time for good period of time (2 years all told for the process,maybe?)


Bottom line, I think they are PADDING now for the eventual removal of HUNDREDS of pilots off the line required to train, either as instructor or the DEN displaced guys.

I think all this talk of cities bidding so mgmt gets the best deal is just a ruse. Sure, they want to extract as much as they can and are having the cities participate in a bidding war to achieve this. In reality, I believe they have decided from the onset it will be in ORD. If this was really about TOTAL cost, they would keep TK in DEN. Minimize the distance and you minimize cost. One of the largest costs will be the loss of Instructors and how that affects the line/displacements and training pipeline.

The difference in what mgmt extracts out of each city is pocket change.
Moving TK is not about cost, it's all about control...IMHO.

This is just what the new UAL needs. All new instructors and losing three decades of corporate knowledge at both training centers.

I hope the FAA is watching.
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