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Zero plans for any more West Coast Scabliner flying, but they keep posting significant vacancies. Solid planning.

260 Captains?!
Wow.. great movement. Alot of secondary bids to follow. Wonder how the hell they will keep up with training come Sept throughout the fall?

What is also amazing is that, it shows (on the min/max) that we have 60 retirements yet 725 vacancies! (also only shows 240 Capt slots.. though, when you add it up- 260?!)

Interesting times~ Something must be up behind the scenes.

Motch

Sfo787ca 15
lax787ca 10
iah787ca 5
dca777ca 10
ewr777ca 20
ord756ca 30
sfo756ca 30
sfo737ca 20
lax737ca 20
dca737ca 20
sfo320ca 20
lax320ca 20
ord320ca 20
ewr320ca 20

sfo787fo 20
lax787fo 20
dca777fo 20
ewr777fo 30
ord756fo 30
sfo756fo 30
sfo737fo 10
lax737fo 30
ord737fo 25
dca737fo 90
ewr737fo 50
sfo320fo 30
lax320fo 20
ord320fo 10
dca320fo 20
ewr320fo 50

Yes. And well over 200 excess captains in DEN and IAH alone that will be bumped. That makes the net new captains slots just about zilch.

Sorry to rain on the parade.

The min max and associated vacancy number take into account last weeks displacement final award. So, the Captain vacancy slots are new unless some of those on the displacement decide to bid into one of these Captain vacancy slots. I'm sure some will but not most.

They are not excess captains, just excess in those two categories.

This has changed already. There are less Captain bids now.

https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/i...lh_FtpLN63I3jA


Happy days are here again!

















(If you believe that, I gently suggest that you put less into your toys and more into your bank account. Six months saved!!)

The godfather is also a financial planner. Smart man.

And those two categories are titled: Captains.

Net change, of somewhere close to zero. Anybody have any other math that says different?

I see where you're coming from. But I don't think the net change is anywhere close to zero.

They are going to bump 150 to 200 IAH 737 Captains, and probably 100-150 737 and 320 DEN Captains. The net captains should be a reduction actually.

Did you look at how many IAH Captains are staying in the left seat? How about the huge number of DEN F/O's that bumped to the left seat?
AND every Captain off the 767 in DEN who simply bid the left seat elsewhere.

Your math is WAY off.

Exactly. Plus after all those people bumped into other Captain seats, there were still 240 open Captain positions. This bid would have been much bigger if not for the surplus and people bumping to positions where they needed them.

You can't have a 700+ vacancy bid and then claim that its net 0 Captains. We certainly aren't short 700 FOs the same way just 2 years ago we weren't overstaffed by 1,600 FOs despite the "math" that was used to show that.

Snapshot is out. Some craziness like 787 Captain SFO going to 4,800 seniority and Bus and Gup Captain in SFO to 9,000. Its madness.

Not only that but the snapshot shows 787 FOs in SFO and LAX are post-merger hires! So instead of going back and looking at LUAL pilots they kept going down the seniority list. Hopefully they catch this and change it.

It's Madness!!!!

Junior captain a 12/06 hire. SFO 737. 9000+ on the seniority list. Doubt that will hold, but still. Lots of unfilled FO positions: 135 DCA, 60 SFO, 25 LAX.

Lol, nice!!

Napkin math shows > 400 unfilled vacancies

In a perfect airline management world, the company could have assigned the excess pilots that are being displaced into the new vacancies. Unfortunately they cannot.

Then DEN 76T base closing, according to Howie, will involve a few quick secondary and tertiary bumps. All the pilots that bumped to the 320 and 737 in DEN (Already overstaffed) will trigger new bumps until they get the number they want in DEN. The next bump, Captains will bump to DEN FO positions, and the final one, the FO's will get bumped out of DEN.

The pilots getting bumped get to choose where THEY want to go, not where the company needs them. The company needs about the same, or slightly fewer narrow body Capts than they have right now.

Fixing it is a bit of a mess, and time consuming. Worse, they will change their plan before the current situation is fixed.

But the current vacancies for narrow body captains is not Captain growth, just changing where the company wants the current pilots to be when all is said and done. Until they change their minds.

So the announcement said 10 SFO 737 FOs and 30 LAX 737 FOs. But the snapshot tonight shows 15 awards with 21 unfilled (36) in SFO and 20 awards with 25 unfilled (45) in LAX.

I'm new here, does this mean they will award up to 45 to lax instead of 30? Or am I missing something?

Thanks

It's higher because the unfilled number includes the amount needed for backfills due to some people bidding out (if the bid closed today).

What he said ^^^^

Simple math, assume 10 LAX and 10 SFO vacancies on type X airplane. If all 10 LAX awards come out of SFO... now you have the 10 original vacancies, plus you need to replace the 10 new empty seats that just went to LAX, for a total of 20.

Multiply this across all domiciles and fleets, it gets pretty interesting.

I believe there will be more bumps in DEN, but very few DEN 737/BUS Captains will bump into DEN FO (my opinion). They will bump to Captain elsewhere. This will mean that very few, IF ANY, DEN FOs will be bumped at all. So you have what....40ish FOs that recently became Captains thru displacement, plus 240 new Captain vacancies....minus however many IAH Captains bump to FO (majority will bump to Captain elsewhere). Still positive math. Captain growth. And look how junior the Captain bids went on the snapshot.....holy sheet! It's like 2000 all over again....only this time I hope it doesn't end in 2172 furloughs.

JMO,

Sled

I can't disagree more. I would bet close to 100% of displaced DEN Capts will bump to DEN FO's. The voluntaries have already bumped to something else. Every lUAL pilot currently based in DEN gave up money/seniority to drive to work. I doubt many will change their election.

Zero planned NB increase, but probably an increase in NB captains until they bump them out of place.

We shall see. I for one will not bump to DEN NB Fo. And I'll wager most, like me, will not either.

We will see. For the past 14 years, you have. You are 6000-7000? You want to bid narrow body Capt? OK. U get 12-14 days off, and get to commute to DEN. You get 9-11 days off, at home.

I would bet almost all of you will stay in DEN if possible, and hope to be a PI at TK.

Feel free to call me wrong in a month or so. I will buy the beer,

At the end of the day, I hope it works out good for all of you. Whatever you choose.

Very few DEN Captains would bump into the Guppy right seat.

Yo Sled......

Should we clue him in?;)

HA! no need. The proof will come soon enough. :D

Thanks. Many of us have been Captains and PIs. And have been here 18 years +. I will be VERY surprised to see many take an FO bid on the Bus or 737. But I could be wrong.

The only Captains, if any, that may end up choosing to go right seat Guppy are a handful of the guys that shouldn't have had the seniority to get Denver Captain in the first place but even those guys would probably just go 787 FO West Coast.

But yes, there are some people who will stay in Denver no matter what. These people aren't single, have kids, don't need the money, or just enjoy being super senior. This number is comprised of less folks than it sounds you're guessing.

Yes it's madness;

I thought we are all one big happy family. Bid, did go through the list and found no takers, so the system awards vacancy to the next pilot on the list. Now I know, they should call all LUAL pilots individually and ask if for sure you don't want to bid B787? Are you 100% sure, because if you don't, it will go to the next junior pilot on the list and then you all'll start b!tc4ing again in 6 months, just giving you a heads up.:D

I don't think there will be any b!tc4ing as a result of not taking a F/O bid on Sparky. QOL( not flying with undesirables ) is more important than the money or routes flying Sparky. Many will find the 747,777 and the 767-400 for F/O bids are far more desirable.:D:D

I'd skulk to the guppy before I'd willingly and knowingly sign up to fly with (predominantly) scabs.

Haters gotta hate. I hate scabs.

Who says anything about flying...;)

80% on the 777 in SFO would bid around top 10 on Sparkie. Hmm, last of the 6 day Guam trips or 3 day Japan trips of your choosing. Disgust with scabs sure didn't prevent a ton of UAL guys from heading to EWR/IAH 777 flying. I think most guys logically conclude more time off far outweighs being able to say "at least I don't flying with ***** scabs!"

No this is not true. NONE of the LUAL pilots 787 FO bids were looked at. Once it went unfilled by pre-merger CAL pilots, they just kept going down the list awarding it to post-merger hires.

I've already spoken with Manpower Planning. They admitted they made a mistake. It will be fixed on today's snapshot.

LUAL pilots on the 787. Its real.

Thanks for following up on this. I was wondering the same thing. IT error at UAL?!! No WAY!!!!!