New Hire Captains within 5 years
07-23-2015, 06:58 AM
#21
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2006
Posts: 2,889
Originally Posted by Tony Nelson
Does AA still have the mandatory upgrade once someone junior to you bids captain?
07-23-2015, 07:07 AM
#22
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2010
Posts: 2,639
(WARNING: math in public)
Assumptions:
1) UAL will grow to 15,000 pilots in 5 years
2) The current junior pilot is ~12,500
3) UAL will experience ~500 retirements per year
Yes, and very theoretically, a new hire could be 10,000 out of 15,000 in five years placing him/her @ 67% and within the range of the most junior captain seat.
BUT ---if history is any indication--- no five year forecast in the airline business is ever accurate. SOMETHING always happens that changes the dynamic.
The list is endless. The only constant is change. Ask a LUAL '97 hire that was a captain in 2000 or a LCAL '05 hire that was a captain in 2009 how fast things can change.
All one can do is get a seniority number and enjoy the ride....because it WILL be a ride with alternating periods of growth, stagnation, and backward movement over a 30 year career.
Assumptions:
1) UAL will grow to 15,000 pilots in 5 years
2) The current junior pilot is ~12,500
3) UAL will experience ~500 retirements per year
Yes, and very theoretically, a new hire could be 10,000 out of 15,000 in five years placing him/her @ 67% and within the range of the most junior captain seat.
BUT ---if history is any indication--- no five year forecast in the airline business is ever accurate. SOMETHING always happens that changes the dynamic.
UAL could buy E190s and we could have three year captains based strictly on low pay and poor schedules.
Age 67 (or 70 or 75) could happen.
The regional pilot pay shortage could get fixed.
FO flight time minimums could get lowered thus helping the regional pilot shortage.
War could occur (again).
Oil prices could collapse....or double...or triple.
UAL could experience another merger.
The US economy could slide into another major recession.
There could be another successful terrorist attack against civilian aviation.
UAL could grow to a 17,000 pilot airline in five years.
Age 67 (or 70 or 75) could happen.
The regional pilot pay shortage could get fixed.
FO flight time minimums could get lowered thus helping the regional pilot shortage.
War could occur (again).
Oil prices could collapse....or double...or triple.
UAL could experience another merger.
The US economy could slide into another major recession.
There could be another successful terrorist attack against civilian aviation.
UAL could grow to a 17,000 pilot airline in five years.
The list is endless. The only constant is change. Ask a LUAL '97 hire that was a captain in 2000 or a LCAL '05 hire that was a captain in 2009 how fast things can change.
All one can do is get a seniority number and enjoy the ride....because it WILL be a ride with alternating periods of growth, stagnation, and backward movement over a 30 year career.
Last edited by cadetdrivr; 07-23-2015 at 07:19 AM.
07-23-2015, 07:12 AM
#23
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2009
Position: The GF of FUPM
Posts: 3,073
aa73,
As you well know, there's reality for the few and then there's reality for the rest of us. At United today, there are several thousand pilots who have spent the last 15 years essentially marching in place. And here's the rich part, if you listen long enough, you'll find out that its our fault because WE made a poor decision to come to UA in the late 90's. Just like it was a poor decision by all the GIANTS who went to work at PanAm, TWA, and Eastern in the 50's and 60's. Idiots all, I suppose.
I've been chasing the brass ring for almost 30 years. Pretty sure that I saw it once or twice, but it was only those pilots far in front of me who were in a position to reach for it.
I'd bet that for every (relatively senior, young) wide body Captain living the high life, there are probably 50 guys who'll never get there. Perspective, both historic and relative is an important asset in this line of work, and its the first thing tossed in the can by many new hires and many of those contemplating the career.
This thread is entertaining.
As you well know, there's reality for the few and then there's reality for the rest of us. At United today, there are several thousand pilots who have spent the last 15 years essentially marching in place. And here's the rich part, if you listen long enough, you'll find out that its our fault because WE made a poor decision to come to UA in the late 90's. Just like it was a poor decision by all the GIANTS who went to work at PanAm, TWA, and Eastern in the 50's and 60's. Idiots all, I suppose.
I've been chasing the brass ring for almost 30 years. Pretty sure that I saw it once or twice, but it was only those pilots far in front of me who were in a position to reach for it.
I'd bet that for every (relatively senior, young) wide body Captain living the high life, there are probably 50 guys who'll never get there. Perspective, both historic and relative is an important asset in this line of work, and its the first thing tossed in the can by many new hires and many of those contemplating the career.
This thread is entertaining.
Last edited by oldmako; 07-23-2015 at 07:28 AM.
07-23-2015, 07:33 AM
#25
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2011
Position: retired 767(dl)
Posts: 5,724
Originally Posted by Tank21
If you make CA and eventually get displaced back to FO, which pay scale are you on? Do you stay on the CA pay scale or bounce back to FO pay?
07-23-2015, 07:34 AM
#26
Line Holder
Joined APC: Oct 2013
Posts: 80
Originally Posted by horrido27
Thanks for the good laugh. Needed it after the last few days.
So.. Hired in '07 when we had 2 year upgrades (an anomaly). Currently 10100ish on the seniority list. Junior Capt is 8700ish. I'm roughly 1400 pilots away from most Junior Captain.
Based on 350 (senior) retirements a year.. I COULD see Captain in 4-5 years. [12yrs to Capt]
Reality-
Between now and then.. age 67 will probably happen. A major conflict somewhere in the globe will probably happen, and some sort of worldwide economical downturn will probably happen.
Figure out when you will be roughly 67% on the list. Only then can you actually plan on holding a Captain Bid that will probably raise your pay while lowering you QoL.*
It's a fun game to play. And Management will use it come Contract 2020 to lure FO's into voting YES. But the reality is.. don't plan on being a Captain for quiet a while.
Always
Motch
*IF we were to place an order for the CS100 or Eseries aircraft we will probably see 2-3 year Captains.
Based on 2016 payrates- you are looking at payrates between $128 - $139 for 2-12yrs.
Almost no pilot who will be on a longevity over 5 years will switch (except for the odd pilot who needs to wear 4 stripes, or is betting on overnights at home!)
And to bring it home- IF we see these aircraft sometime next year, it would be at least an $8 an hour paycut.. and more likely $45 an hour, for me and my fellow 07 hires.
On the other hand, someone hired during the beginning of the wave will be on 3-5 year pay. For them, it could be a slight raise.
That being said. Anyone hired this year or on will probably need more than 5 years to hold a worthwhile Capt Seat.
Just my opinion~
So.. Hired in '07 when we had 2 year upgrades (an anomaly). Currently 10100ish on the seniority list. Junior Capt is 8700ish. I'm roughly 1400 pilots away from most Junior Captain.
Based on 350 (senior) retirements a year.. I COULD see Captain in 4-5 years. [12yrs to Capt]
Reality-
Between now and then.. age 67 will probably happen. A major conflict somewhere in the globe will probably happen, and some sort of worldwide economical downturn will probably happen.
Figure out when you will be roughly 67% on the list. Only then can you actually plan on holding a Captain Bid that will probably raise your pay while lowering you QoL.*
It's a fun game to play. And Management will use it come Contract 2020 to lure FO's into voting YES. But the reality is.. don't plan on being a Captain for quiet a while.
Always
Motch
*IF we were to place an order for the CS100 or Eseries aircraft we will probably see 2-3 year Captains.
Based on 2016 payrates- you are looking at payrates between $128 - $139 for 2-12yrs.
Almost no pilot who will be on a longevity over 5 years will switch (except for the odd pilot who needs to wear 4 stripes, or is betting on overnights at home!)
And to bring it home- IF we see these aircraft sometime next year, it would be at least an $8 an hour paycut.. and more likely $45 an hour, for me and my fellow 07 hires.
On the other hand, someone hired during the beginning of the wave will be on 3-5 year pay. For them, it could be a slight raise.
That being said. Anyone hired this year or on will probably need more than 5 years to hold a worthwhile Capt Seat.
Just my opinion~
Sounds like "you'll be in F-35's as a Captain"........
07-23-2015, 08:02 AM
#28
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2013
Position: Gets weekends off
Posts: 1,168
Originally Posted by ron kent
Hired 2 Jan 96, was told at the time I would make Capt in 7-8 years. I was on the line as a Capt in 3 yrs 11 months. Bumped back to FO on the 777 10 months after 9-11. Bumped off the 777 after 1 year due to Asia flying cutbacks because of SARS. Spent 1 year as a very senior LCO airbus FO. Summer of 2004 back on the line as an Airbus Capt and spent 11+ years on reserve due to age 65 and the Guppy fleet going away for the merger. Now back to being a Guppy Capt again 15 years later.
Strap in and hang on!
Strap in and hang on!
'97 - 727 FO
'99 - guppy Captain
'00 - 727 Captain
'02 - 767 FO
'04 - Bus FO
It feels like the late 90s again after seeing the last few vacancy bids. We had a few where there were 750+ awards, and it seemed we had vacancy bids every month. United was hiring 25 per month for as long as I can remember.
Right up until the big furlough.
07-23-2015, 08:07 AM
#29
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Joined APC: Apr 2008
Position: Sleeping in the black swan’s nest.
Posts: 5,709
Originally Posted by Tank21
If you make CA and eventually get displaced back to FO, which pay scale are you on? Do you stay on the CA pay scale or bounce back to FO pay?
Yeah....NO!
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