For me, it was a OK gig from 95-2000. Great 2000-2002.
It sucked from 03-12.
It is OK now. Almost good. 2013-2015.

Looks like "sucked" is winning. I would be spectacularly happy simply making it back to "good". 20% pay raise, and 3-1 duty rig brings it back to "good", at least for me.

The economy has been slowing down for the last 20 plus years.

Some of the things that sort of influenced this are:

1. 2 8 year democrat presidents (Clinton and Obama).
2. Age 65
3. 9/11
4. Flood of RJ's increasing capacity too much
5. High fuel costs

The only thing that really makes me a bit nervous is all the occasional talk about age 70.

The world economy may slow but joe six pack still wants to fly from Chicago to Orlando for 79 bucks. Regardless of the security environment, this gig is all about supply and demand. Supply and demand among the pilot ranks and supply and demand of the customers.

This is the longest stretch of low fuel costs I can recall so that's good. The RJ's are decreasing in their dominance due to their poor economics, so that's good. ALPA doesn't appear to be pushing age 70 so that's good. Hopefully no big major US security event takes place and nothing bad since 9/11 sot that's positive. And, likely, we won't see a socialist democrat be elected and after the Obama abortion of a presidency likely no democrats elected for the rest of my lifetime. Yeah I know democrats are "labor friendly", but none of them would allow us to self help so it's a moot point. RLA limits what anyone can accomplish regardless of who is in the whitehouse.

Put all that above in a cake and bake it and I think our negotiating environment and our overall position is favorable.

I heard when it was analyzed based on projected profits, inflation, work rule and scope changes, the DAL TA actually was concessionary. The DAL projected profits are large, but not large enough to trigger the higher profit sharing percentage threshold and thus the pilots actually make more by keeping the lower pay rates and higher profit sharing (lower threshold) of the current contract. Kind of a bird in the hand vs. two in the bush thing.

Considering the airlines are currently in an era of record profits and low fuel costs, I'd say that the "market forces" actually favor pattern bargaining.

Be careful what you wish for. I can't recall hearing anyone from labor who really understands the RLA (I'm not in that group) advocate repealing it, and if you open it up to be amended, there are labor protections the industry would like to tear apart.

Don't Feed The Troll

Sort of...but only one component. Current market forces don't necessarily favor pattern bargaining on base components of pay.

Record profits are good for variable comp...bonuses, profit sharing, etc. Base compensation is largely driven by the supply and demand for class labor which hasn't changed except at the smaller, regional-type operations.

There is a misconception that base comp gets driven by profitability. It doesn't. However, your variable comp component has a good chance of rising significantly.

With an amendable date in 2017 and a likely settlement point somewhere in 2019, only time will tell. No skin in the game, but I'm hoping for good things between now and then.

Wow. Surely you can't be serious. Best days of my career were during the Clinton admin. Obama's tenure has been a boon for this industry...not to mention your B-fund. Presidents do lots of things besides imposing PEBs. (which he did not do for Spirit, btw). By appointing Babbitt to FAA, and Pistole to TSA, we now have FAR 117 and Known Crewmember. Obama's legacy.
Look at the carnage that occurred in this industry under Reagan, Bush I, and Bush II. Will we ever learn? :confused:

Sled the reluctant Democrat

Did not seem to be a problem for UAW before.

Great from 2000-2002? Well the big contract I guess. After the dust settled from that, the economy was obviously going south and UAL started losing piles of money. By the summer of 2001 I remember believing that furloughs were likely by winter. My last trip before 9-11 the Captain and I spent the better part of the flight from ATL-ORD discussing the fact that UAL was on track to lose over a billion dollars for 2001. That was without a black swan event like 9-11. Throw in all the uncertainty of the outrageously expensive bid for USair during part of that period and none of it felt right.

The paychecks were nice, but I would hardly call it a great time. The money made it harder to notice.