UA going to buy Jetblue?
11-01-2016 | 09:06 PM
#31
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 9,373
Likes: 368
The DOJ is apparently making it hard for Alaska and Virgin. Two airlines that are relatively small and with next to no overlap at all. It would seem they have had it with airline mergers and are going to push back and make it hard for further mergers. A merger/acquisition by the top 4 (UA/DL/AA/SW) is most likely out of the question.
11-01-2016 | 09:30 PM
#32
New Hire
Joined: Oct 2016
Posts: 1
Likes: 0
From: E190 FO
Evidence supporting:
UA pulled out of JFK, so there is greatly diminished direct "overlap". Considering that UAL and CAL mutually did the same thing with mainline flying in the year prior to the official merger announcement it could appear that the pieces are being moved around with an "end state" in mind.
Evidence against:
AK and VA apparently can't get their merger past DOJ/DOT...at least in the present form as the deal keeps getting delayed. If AK can't get the gov't to sign off on their deal, how on earth can UAL (or DAL or AA) buy anybody?
-and-
What assets does JB have that UAL could just not buy for a few billion dollars cheaper without the baggage of a merger?? (JBLU's market cap is currently $5.66B)
UA pulled out of JFK, so there is greatly diminished direct "overlap". Considering that UAL and CAL mutually did the same thing with mainline flying in the year prior to the official merger announcement it could appear that the pieces are being moved around with an "end state" in mind.
Evidence against:
AK and VA apparently can't get their merger past DOJ/DOT...at least in the present form as the deal keeps getting delayed. If AK can't get the gov't to sign off on their deal, how on earth can UAL (or DAL or AA) buy anybody?
-and-
What assets does JB have that UAL could just not buy for a few billion dollars cheaper without the baggage of a merger?? (JBLU's market cap is currently $5.66B)
This is a correct statement. The DOJ uses “HHI”, which means the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index, a commonly accepted measure of market concentration. The HHI is calculated by squaring the market share of each firm competing in the market and then summing the resulting numbers. For example, for a market consisting of four firms with shares of 30, 30, 20, and 20 percent, the HHI is 2,600 (302 + 302 + 202 + 202 = 2,600).
If you take the top 9 airlines by market share and apply this you will see that UAL would score very high in the NYC and south FL markets. The only way for a merger to get approved would be to give up gate slots at both JFK and FLL. This would not be worth it.
BLUF: Nobody is buying jetBlue.
11-01-2016 | 10:23 PM
#33
Stuck Mic
Joined: Dec 2013
Posts: 1,059
Likes: 0
This is a correct statement. The DOJ uses “HHI”, which means the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index, a commonly accepted measure of market concentration. The HHI is calculated by squaring the market share of each firm competing in the market and then summing the resulting numbers. For example, for a market consisting of four firms with shares of 30, 30, 20, and 20 percent, the HHI is 2,600 (302 + 302 + 202 + 202 = 2,600).
If you take the top 9 airlines by market share and apply this you will see that UAL would score very high in the NYC and south FL markets. The only way for a merger to get approved would be to give up gate slots at both JFK and FLL. This would not be worth it.
BLUF: Nobody is buying jetBlue.
If you take the top 9 airlines by market share and apply this you will see that UAL would score very high in the NYC and south FL markets. The only way for a merger to get approved would be to give up gate slots at both JFK and FLL. This would not be worth it.
BLUF: Nobody is buying jetBlue.
Is it this way in other industries where we are one bad political move away from huge (or yuuuuuggge) problems?
11-02-2016 | 06:57 AM
#34
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,288
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From: B756 FO
I'm sure there are many negatives JB guys would face in a mix up with UAL. However I imagine many guys in the NYC/NJ area or the guys who commute from places West of the Miss-Sip wouldn't scoff at getting an extra $30 or so bucks an hour to fly the same plane or an extra $60 to fly a widebody out of EWR/SFO/LAX if they so desired to go that route.
11-02-2016 | 10:20 AM
#35
Line Holder
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 1,296
Likes: 4
From: CA
I'm sure there are many negatives JB guys would face in a mix up with UAL. However I imagine many guys in the NYC/NJ area or the guys who commute from places West of the Miss-Sip wouldn't scoff at getting an extra $30 or so bucks an hour to fly the same plane or an extra $60 to fly a widebody out of EWR/SFO/LAX if they so desired to go that route.
No doubt certain commuters would be thrilled with more bases. Most* guys I know at JB knew wide bodies aren't coming any time soon. I got hired more than happy with not flying more than 7 hours away. I think we'll be in Europe before 2020, could be with wide bodies, most likely the A321LR.
11-02-2016 | 10:50 AM
#36
On Reserve
Joined: Feb 2014
Posts: 152
Likes: 4
From: Left Seat
We're currently negotiating our first contract and all proposals have been exchanged. They're in the meat and potatoes sections now. Without question we're shooting for a TA in line with UAL's/SWA's etc and not Allegiant or Spirit. We'll get there, but contracts don't happen overnight usually. I'd like to see our first TA before I'd gamble on mergers...
No doubt certain commuters would be thrilled with more bases. Most* guys I know at JB knew wide bodies aren't coming any time soon. I got hired more than happy with not flying more than 7 hours away. I think we'll be in Europe before 2020, could be with wide bodies, most likely the A321LR.
No doubt certain commuters would be thrilled with more bases. Most* guys I know at JB knew wide bodies aren't coming any time soon. I got hired more than happy with not flying more than 7 hours away. I think we'll be in Europe before 2020, could be with wide bodies, most likely the A321LR.
11-02-2016 | 12:43 PM
#37
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 2,639
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The JB pilot group is nowhere close to being in a position get anything accomplished and JB management is having a field day stringing them along.
I'd rather UAL not have anything to do with JB, but considering certain terms of their current individual agreements, I'd much prefer that if UAL were to buy JB it would happen before they get a real contract.
I'd rather UAL not have anything to do with JB, but considering certain terms of their current individual agreements, I'd much prefer that if UAL were to buy JB it would happen before they get a real contract.
11-02-2016 | 12:51 PM
#38
Line Holder
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 91
Likes: 0
From: trying to survive
I'm sure there are many negatives JB guys would face in a mix up with UAL. However I imagine many guys in the NYC/NJ area or the guys who commute from places West of the Miss-Sip wouldn't scoff at getting an extra $30 or so bucks an hour to fly the same plane or an extra $60 to fly a widebody out of EWR/SFO/LAX if they so desired to go that route.
11-02-2016 | 03:52 PM
#40
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: May 2009
Posts: 3,076
Likes: 3
From: The GF of FUPM
Purely just another dumb pilot musing, but I think that U really blew it back when Frontier was tip-toeing past the cemetery. They could have gotten a mess of relatively new Busses, gone a long way to cementing their presence in DEN, and absorbed a chunk of reasonably happy employees. All on the cheap. Kind of like back when Aloha was in play.
No way they'd buy JB today.
No way they'd buy JB today.
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