Somewhat off topic, but does anyone predict some -400 FO slots opening as the fleet winds down and people transfer out when they choose as opposed to holding on...

It could happen, but most (all?) -400 pilots are well aware that they can get bumps within a year. I'd guess that they'd wait for a freebie displacement bid, without a freeze, instead of jumping ship now.

Ahh, that makes sense. Good to know! Happy bidding.

Sorry. Hopefully big oil will turn around soon so you guys can have your toys back.

Today -

<<By DAVID KOENIG, AP Business Writer
3 Hours Ago


DALLAS (AP) — OPEC now sees oil prices rising more slowly over the next few years than it had expected, as the oversupply of crude takes longer to work off.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said Tuesday it expects crude will rise $5 a year to $60 per barrel by 2020. A year ago, OPEC forecast that oil would hit $80 by 2020.

Brent crude, which is used to price international oils, fell 11 cents to $46.04 a barrel on Tuesday.

OPEC cited many factors that could limit energy demand, from slower growth in China to higher household debt. The cartel expects global economic growth of 3.4 percent over six years, down from a 3.6 percent prediction a year ago.>>

Tough news indeed.

I'm an early 2015 hire and would love to have a go at the Whale before she goes. I just don't see how that many vacancies would open on her with current -400 guys holding off for bumps and tons of IAH 787/777 guys displaced to her.

You have to understand the inertia on the 747. Meaning, once at rest, it's likely they will continue to stay at rest. Meaning, not likely to bid off, and hold on to the bitter end.

Even that, most are senior enough they can hold just about anything they want, so in most cases, a free bump is meaningless.

Unless you are bumping from FO to 787 CA.......which sits around 3000

Sure but without a bump, a vacancy must be open. I agree that most -400 pilots will hang on til the end, not because of inertia, but to better see the seniority landscape as it exists in a year.

Displacement allows a pilot to bid any position his seniority can hold, no vacancy required, and bid out asap if he decides he doesn't like the new position. You call that meaningless?

The top third of SFO -400 FOs can hold 787 CAP or better. When was the last time the company posted 70+ 787 CAP bids? I think you'll see the -400 fleet drawdown be anything but meaningless to manpower planning.