whalesurfer

Fantastic news indeed!

I’ll be the first one to admit I was wrong. Can’t find my old post(s) but a while back someone (boiler maybe? - congrats on upgrading btw) predicted 5-6 year upgrades and I said something like, “yeah, right, we’ve heard that one before”.

Very glad to be proven wrong and I hope this will continue.

By the way, I saw a thread where someone was asking about management jobs here? There needs to be a link which takes him to this thread.

Just imagine - <5 year captains enjoying ALL the benefits and protections of IPA.

whalesurfer

Don’t have the list in front of me..
How ‘junior’ did it go? You mean for FOs, right?

FTv3

Yeah, sorry. Aug ‘17 is FO plug. Heard a couple of 14/15 hires had 50-60% something percentage bid in for it and got it awarded.

BoilerUP

Junior 747 SDF CA fell to 4/95...don't think anybody thought it'd go quite that low.

747 SDF FO going as junior as it did on the award didn't surprise me, but it definitely changed from how senior it went on the Mocks (notably MD CA went waaaaaaaaay more senior on the award than the Mocks).

Never imagined junior CA would fall to 8/15...that's just awesome and a very welcome change from 15 years to junior available.

We've got 9 more airplanes to be delivered next year, let's keep that train a'rollin!

PolarTiger

does anyone know the retirement figures? Projected vs Actual. That would give some insight as to whether this 4 year upgrade continues. (Provided the majority retiring are Captains)

BoilerUP

We mandatory retire 100-200 annually for a decade starting in 2024.

Growth is driving *today’s* progression moreso than retirements...16 growth airframes delivered in 2019, 9 growth airframes to be delivered in 2020.

SaltyDog

No brainer.
No one knows MD-11 life left at UPS.
New retirement age is between 62-65. More leaving at 62ish. Variety of reasons. Each has own. No clear reason or trend reason other than they are leaving healthy earlier.

Fleet wise my observed speculation:
Factually, UPS planning for another decade or so with MD11. APU, refrigerators, fuel, generator, etc etc etc. parts parts parts.
is in discussions to maximize life.
Volume is huge variable and market share is player. World economics in logistics etc drive uncertainty.
Present forecast short to mid term: UPS cannot replace MD11 volume in current market trends. Need every airframe for a long while. MD replacement is almost assuredly 767/747.
UPS likely serious discussion with Boeing and own planners on future feed of 74/76 purchases/leases.
No new type needed (simpler on system not to introduce new type.. Benefit is no contract required bids, new domiciles, market planning, maintenance etc.
Unless markets crash and huge recession, MD will be on ramps at least 8+ years. Variables enroute can make some become parts birds and a reduction in fleet size. In 8 years, the discussion will be which 737 variant replaces the 757

BoilerUP

MAX 10, duh...probably get some good deals on them right about now

usmc-sgt

I remember when boiler was driving a CJ3 and happy as can be. You’ve come a long way in this wide aviation world. Congrats.

cougar

More 767’s are possible, though the 767-400X variant isn’t likely due to limited payload. Our last 747-8 delivery in early 2023 is probably the end of the 747 production. Boeing simply isn’t interested in selling anymore to a limited customer base. There are still 4 747-8 options that belong to AeroBridge Cargo, delivery timeframe TBD.
777X freighter seems to be the only viable solution for future LWB airplanes based on current information.
5 747-8s and 6 767’s to be delivered next year.