Interesting to read an article where literally not a single one of the predictions ended up being accurate.
Slack is still around, Fedex wasn't acquired by anyone and is still around, Amazon is not some overnight delivery powerhouse for the masses and so on.

 

things got delayed a bit. Give it time.

 

100 years enough? Because eventually every prediction of someone's demise comes true.

 

Look at Amazon now, they started air back in 2016 just in case you didn’t know - name any business growth this significant in 5 years (In aviation, and ground movement hosting 10s of thousands of vehicles in the past 3-5 years with workers with way less benefits if any compared to Purple/Brown)

True, FedEx is still around and so is UPS for that matter and will continue to be the heavy weights for awhile of course and maybe forever. But using “still around” as logic is not realistic future forecasting. Pan Am, TWA, merging of Continental, U.S. Airways, Northwest which were “around for decades proves otherwise. Ground structure for the cargo business is the key difference which seems to stabilize things within our industry. Who knows, a Purple/Brown package truck might be in the works, DHL abroad is their main competitor. Times change, technology advances, Founders/CEO’s do pass away like everyone else. Nothing is absolute except for the last third of the previous statement.

Did the article predict the viral debacle which provided huge gains in our industry beyond normalcy. Whoever did with the correct timeline, find that guy…

 

^^^ I think that's a fair analysis, e.g. the ground piece is integral to success in this business. Amazon, for example, still relies heavily on Postal for the last mile where they don't have coverage (...anywhere outside of population centers). Purolator faded long ago and DHL in North America (to name a few) hasn't been able to cover the last mile.

 

Just an observation… Where I live from what I’ve seen it appears that Amazon or someone contracted out by Amazon is delivering nearly all of my Amazon packages… granted I live about a 60 minute drive from a major city but I’ve been surprised by how many packages Amazon or someone contracted out by Amazon is delivering to my house.

 

So true, one day it’s the self-employed Amazon van, next day it’s a U-haul van sometimes truck and as “nonrev dad” said, USPS does this as well. Can’t tell what “transporter” our things are coming from. Scotty?

 

“Pan Am, TWA, merging of Continental, U.S. Airways, Northwest which were “around for decades proves otherwise.”

The only thing FX/UPS has in common with those companies is airplanes. Its not even an apples to oranges comparison, more like apples to electronics.

 

Bottom line it’s a business is it not? It was to show that nothing is forever, nothing is ultimately secure, nothing remains on top forever. Romans, British Empire, etc. as everything is cyclic and we can use your fruit and electronics again disregarding the Big Picture.. UPS bringing on its own air vs contracting. Both FedEx/UPS contract out and even now some longer term than seen before. Just playing catch-up to the viral debacle as No One was killing it before it arrived in comparison to current rates being paid. Many were doing Good or OK, definitely some better than others - but shipping skyrocketed bringing everyone up. If/when these viruses dissipate let’s hope the economy is strong to maintain the demand in all areas. Apples, Oranges and electronics all have a shelf life. It is naive to believe nothing can fail, be absorbed or segregated/dismantled. As said before, everyone passes and business leaders included. IBM was the leader and still immensely strong no doubt, but they were #1. Big Picture as we aren’t management. Everything has a price and know one knows when the next pop up leader will arise. FedEx super stable for 50yrs now, UPS 60yrs before them. God forbid someone doesn’t figure out how to undercut the other guy… well, that’s been going on since the beginning of time and poor management, well that takes care of itself.

 

Yeah, I would imagine most are well aware of the point you are making. My point was that the airlines are basically one trick ponies. Fx & UPS are conglomerations of logistic companies/operations with multiple streams of revenue. Are you aware of why Ford has a large assembly plant across the street from worldport? When Amazon starts getting onto B2B, supply chains, etc., then I’ll start worrying,