We went thru this in a cab and didnt turn out well...so lets move on towards productive dialogue

 

Yes, please. Unless you’re in the top half of the seniority list, then indulge in fisticuffs to your heart’s content. The main issue with the B&G is the lack of civil dialogue. Online forums tend to trend towards ridiculous arguments, not productive ones though.

 

Any rumors if the latest realignment covered all the MDs leaving this year? Any chance of more movement this summer?

 

I would say good chance of another bid this summer

 

Realignment Bid u should have written. I see another 30 off the MD in late summer realignment bid. Both seats.

 

Two more -8s coming this year (one already on property I believe). Several new 767s arriving this year (can't remember the actual number off the top of my head). Retirements ramping up for the foreseeable future. Maybe technically a realignment bid, but the sky isn't falling. I don't think hiring is out of the question late this year or early next. Upgrades will happen, the seniority list won't stagnate. This isn't 2010. I know you didn't suggest that it is, but I feel like we have a lot of overly negative in our group who are convinced the storm clouds are rolling in. I'd say the immediate forecast is partly sunny & anybody who claims to know the long range trend is purely guessing.

 

I may not know the long range trend, but I have been here through three hiring cycles and was acutely aware of the hiring cycle prior to my arrival in 2000. The hiring spicket is either on or off. When that spicket gets turned off, it stays off until the airline is in a critically understaffed state. The MD is still overstaffed and will be more so after they progress with the parking plan, so another realignment bid to staff the aircraft arriving is a certainty sometime relatively soon.

In 2023, around 93 people left before the VTP offer, and approximately 187 left with the VTP. Look on the IPA site for future retirements, its not really ramping up that much, the retirment wave was sprung on us in September.

Half the airline has been hired since the spicket turned on the last time. When reserves get extended into days off every time (look at how much they can extend you each run of reserve days), the JA phone rings every single day off, and the "deals" start getting made with scheduling, that's when I would look for some new classes. We are going to start a loooong negotiating process this summer and the contract is not ammendable until September 2025. If anyone thinks hiring will happen soon, well, y'all know the B&G saying :-)

 

VTP definitely pulled forward then flattened our retirement wave over the next few years. ST's seniority list shows 79 mandatory retirements in 2026 and ramping up to triple-digit mandatory retirements starting 2028. We'll see how the early retirement trend continues as we enter contract negotiations.

One impact of VTP is once block hours begin to tangibly increase, it probably won't take as long as past cycles to put staffing under pressure.

Everything is cyclical...

 

I agree with MD11SimNerd - I doubt we will hire for the next 18-24 months.

Probably several months after the contract is settled.

 

Crap, then we won’t be hiring until 2028 or so.