Single Pilot Potential
#21
Airline operators stand to save significantly more money with reduction in pilot capacity than Ipads or most other recent cockpit tech innovations. Network reliability should increase eventually with fewer pilots as well. Things happen faster when motivated parties are the ones holding the cards. Situations such as Germanwings and MH371 have proven that rogue pilots can be successful in spite of the two man cockpit. Consider the implications of real time ground monitoring and the ability to override the pilot in such an event. Also consider a situation such as with AF447. A ground based team of pilots and specialists who is monitoring aircraft parameters could quickly assist and in extreme cases override a frozen pilot who has lost SA, effectively transplanting the most competent system matter experts into the cockpit on demand.
#22
On Reserve
Joined: Apr 2018
Posts: 37
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I'd be interested to hear theories on how this will work. When/if we go from a three or four person crew down to two, how does the rest work? We have definitions on what constitutes an on board rest facility currently. Do we all of a sudden decide that napping in the seat is a suitable alternative? I would assume the answer is no. If that's the case, then what happens when the one pilot in the seat needs a physiological (pee) break? Food? Coffee? Etc? Does that person then interrupt the other pilot's rest in order to attend to these needs? That seems like it could be very fatiguing, to the point of disrupting the operation. I'm not being the least bit ironic or dramatic here. If my inflight rest were being continuously interrupted and/or I felt I couldn't attend to physiological needs for fear of interrupting the other pilot, I would be quite inclined to call a UPS "safety timeout" upon landing. Hell, as a captain, I think I'd likely be inclined to divert the aircraft anytime I thought safety of flight was being jeopardized by the inability of my crew to get adequate rest enroute. One pilot in the seat is the same as zero pilots in the seat. It is very difficult for me to imagine a scenario in which at least two pilots were required on the flight deck at all times. That means the current crew compliments are the absolute minimum. Tech can and has replaced radio operators, navigators, and flight engineers. We're a long way off (imho) from technology replacing at least two human brains trapping one another's errors.
Unthinkable today, but it’s something I wonder about with regard to the future.
#23
#24
Prime Minister/Moderator

Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 45,167
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From: Engines Turn or People Swim
Currently, certain operations require 3 or more crew members. I think the first place we see reduced-crew operations (eMCO) will be on those flights. Not sure exactly what that might look like. Perhaps an authorization for a single pilot on the flight deck while the other sleeps. To be sure, there are hurdles in the way of doing this. I think the biggest one is insurance risk. Next would be regulatory approval, though Airbus is greasing the wheels in Europe.
But that's a very long ways away from true single pilot, the solution to pilot incap is wake up the other guy. They're just hoping like hell they don't have an incap associated with a time-critical emergency like a rapid depress.
#25
Of course the military has an indirect affect on civil aviation from the standpoint of training new pilots.
Fewer and fewer tails manned and otherwise require less in the way of pilots who can go on to fly for the airlines. CCA Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA), USA - Airforce Technology (airforce-technology.com) is the way of the future. IMHO. 20 ish B-2s 75 ish B-52s for instance. Even the B-21 as a replacement will likely be less than 175 tails total but you get the idea. Not many compared to most civil airline fleets.
On another note the war in Ukraine has really been an eye opener in how wars of the future can go. The Army canceled the FARA largely based on lessons learned in that environment.
There's also been discussion on cancelling NGAD but that appears to be because of the cost and realistically political posturing I'm sure plays into that. We'll see.
Finally we have the SR-72 that would most likely be unmanned assuming it exists and in what form but the whole project is almost like UFO sightings so details are sparse for now.
Fewer and fewer tails manned and otherwise require less in the way of pilots who can go on to fly for the airlines. CCA Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA), USA - Airforce Technology (airforce-technology.com) is the way of the future. IMHO. 20 ish B-2s 75 ish B-52s for instance. Even the B-21 as a replacement will likely be less than 175 tails total but you get the idea. Not many compared to most civil airline fleets.
On another note the war in Ukraine has really been an eye opener in how wars of the future can go. The Army canceled the FARA largely based on lessons learned in that environment.
There's also been discussion on cancelling NGAD but that appears to be because of the cost and realistically political posturing I'm sure plays into that. We'll see.
Finally we have the SR-72 that would most likely be unmanned assuming it exists and in what form but the whole project is almost like UFO sightings so details are sparse for now.
#26
In a land of unicorns
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 7,072
Likes: 103
From: Whale FO
Airbus I think is already experimenting, with the aid of an overseas airline with a cooperative regulator.
But that's a very long ways away from true single pilot, the solution to pilot incap is wake up the other guy. They're just hoping like hell they don't have an incap associated with a time-critical emergency like a rapid depress.
But that's a very long ways away from true single pilot, the solution to pilot incap is wake up the other guy. They're just hoping like hell they don't have an incap associated with a time-critical emergency like a rapid depress.
But then, they also have "controlled cockpit rest", where with certain procedures you can take a up-to 45 minute nap on the flight deck.
#28
#30
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Joined: Apr 2005
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