Please ... we are our own worst enemy. That $80k won’t ever be used to pay keep a single pilot they don’t need to match demand. It’ll be used for debt service or to keep the lights on for a few more seconds. Or to justify stock buy-backs and executive compensation as soon as Uncle Sugar isn’t looking (or maybe proof of ‘belt-tightening’ to justify further government handouts). Or for bankruptcy and other attorneys to figure out how to shred contracts further to permanently lower labor costs during this unique time of management leverage.

Regardless, I don’t think it does anyone any good (except perhaps management in the very short term) for the industry to go back to the $misek and Discount Dougie days of incessant, petty cost cutting, which is what this reeks of. If your airline loses just 10-15 TPAC business class tickets sold to the likes of ANA, Cathay, etc because you don’t have toothpicks for your cocktails, you’ve eaten up all that savings (and probably much more with the brand impairment and future booking patterns factored in). And believe me the little stupid service things like a toothpick for your lime for your your G and T count for the folks who pay for a sizable portion of our wages (premium cabin close-in booked long-haul passengers) when Uncle Sugar isn’t paying us to all mimic Allegiant/Spirit in the most cost-inefficient ways possible.

We pilots fly planes. Managers manage occasionally. But in general I’d argue that cost cutting on the premium end destroys the product which in turn destroys competitiveness and leads to further erosions of the brand and the all-around conditions at the carrier.

 

Delta hung on to the MD 88's for 10 years longer than planned. The last 88 rolled off the production line before the first E145 was even made.

UA can have unlimited 50 seaters. Many routes can't support a 175 unless they reduced frequency which won't happen because people will vote with their feet. Fifty seaters have at least 5 more years unless they time out first.

 

There are still B-1900's that haven't timed out. And Shorts 360's. And Metroliners. Why aren't the regionals flying those anymore? Simple, customers didn't want them and they became obsolete. The same is happening very, very quickly with 50 seat aircraft. They are simply not desirable. 2 class of cabin is the minimum.

 

It’s true that the 50 seaters are not hull restricted like the 70/76 seaters are, but they are still block hour restricted. United can have as many as they want, only providing that UAX block doesn’t exceed United NB block.

The same argument was made when the 1900’s made way for the Saab, and then the CRJ. As far as people wanting frequency and voting with their feet goes, our competition is getting rid of their 50 seaters too. I don’t see them leaving the United fleet in the next couple of years during the recovery, but I’d be really surprised if they were around once the business returns.

 

50 seaters will still be around quite a bit longer. In my opinion, United's plan for the CRJ550 extended the lifespan of 50 seater market by at least a few years. Additionally I think the 200 will stick around good bit longer as well particularly in the EAS flights. Skywest kept the EMB-120 flying till 2015. For the type of flying we do, I am not holding my breath. Wonder if we could convince Bezos to run a fleet of cargo converted CRJ200s for Prime Air haha.

 

Really not that bad or ridiculous of an option. All the old birds move to cargo eventually. We might as well be the ones flying them.

 

I have heard from multiple sources (MKE MX) and senior dispatchers of ATW getting serious about cargo door STC’s.

 

Time for a little history lesson. A long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away (that's like 10 years ago for you kids), oil crude prices hit $70 to $130 a barrel due to Washington policies.

https://www.seattletimes.com/busines...longer-wanted/

“The economics are awful, especially in a time of high fuel prices,” Aboulafia said. “It makes sense if you’re focused on market share, hub preservation and other really outmoded concepts. But if you’re focused on profitability, then 50-seats begin to look awful.”If oil prices remain in the $75-per-barrel range and businesses continue to be conservative with travel budgets, the retirement of 50-seaters may accelerate, said consultant Boyd.

“The small-jet airplane era is over because the economics simply are not there,” Boyd said. “They couldn’t make money with $50 oil, and they sure as heck can’t make money at $75 oil. The only people who love these 50-seaters are the chiropractors who have to fix what they do to peoples’ backs.”

Nothing like shooting yourself in the foot to end your quickly advancing career with a vote for the same policies from that..... galaxy far, far away. Oh wait, they don't teach History in schools anymore. Sorry.... "fact-check" me in 2 years instead.
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You know, gas prices went way down during Obama's tenure right? In part due to federal investment in energy independence. So...thanks Obama?

 

Well from everything I’ve been reading, everyone has been almost saying (past and present) that 50 seaters are going away BUT they’re still around and until they actually go away, they are STILL around and everything is just hearsay.

Makes for a good debate or discussion sure, but I think you guys are really beating your heads for nothing or for something you have no control over.

Our skill set isn’t a 50 seater skill set. We are trainable and we can adapt to a 75 seater or 90 seater or 1000 seater if need be. It’s not the end of the world if 50 seaters go away. There are other planes we can fly.

Right now our focus should be on hoping we get back to work soon especially for us furloughed lot. Our lives and finances have been impacted severely, so it doesn’t matter what we fly as long as we fly and earn and return to normalcy over the course of 2021.