UA 50 seat announcement

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Quote: There are actually quite a few 700s and 900s on the market and just because you don't personally know where they aren't doesn't mean there aren't any. Second, I don't really know that they have to underbid Mesa in particular but sure, I think we could offer a competitive product. Republic is expensive, Mesa has terrible ops performance, Skywest has mediocre ops performance as well.
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Quote: True not all regionals are going away but some will disappear with the announcement by UA to replace 200 single/aisle/class 50 seaters. This affects AW, C5 and SKW. There could also be more consolidation on the horizon.

United updated our hiring goals to 1500 by 12/2022 and 3000 by 12/2023. If (a big IF) we take delivery of every AC and with planned retirements you are looking at 1000/yr for 5+ years.
This kind of thing is the ebb and flow of the industry. Yes, the 50 seater market is shrinking.....for now. It is just a matter of time before that chunk of the market comes back in one way shape or form with a new aircraft type. Will take some time, but it is not going away for good.
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Quote: This kind of thing is the ebb and flow of the industry. Yes, the 50 seater market is shrinking.....for now. It is just a matter of time before that chunk of the market comes back in one way shape or form with a new aircraft type. Will take some time, but it is not going away for good.
Who is making a new 50 seat jet? There’s no economics that make the jet viable now or in the future. Turboprops? Passengers hate them.

The shift you will see is mainline taking over 175 routes. I already fly into a ton of cities on the 319 that I did on the E145. The E175 will shift to the E145/CRJ200 routes. Some markets will be conceded but those will be so small that a ULCC won’t even fly there.

I know of the ebb and flow. UA has a CEO that finally wants to up our domestic game.
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Quote: Who is making a new 50 seat jet? There’s no economics that make the jet viable now or in the future. Turboprops? Passengers hate them.

The shift you will see is mainline taking over 175 routes. I already fly into a ton of cities on the 319 that I did on the E145. The E175 will shift to the E145/CRJ200 routes. Some markets will be conceded but those will be so small that a ULCC won’t even fly there.

I know of the ebb and flow. UA has a CEO that finally wants to up our domestic game.
Go back and read what I posted again. You fly for United right?
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Quote: Go back and read what I posted again. You fly for United right?

Yes I do fly for UA
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Quote: Yes I do fly for UA
OK, so then you are completely aware of why you are starting to see mainline replacing regional flying in certain markets. United is the king of the big three at putting regional aircraft on routes they never should have been on to begin with. All that is happening now is the light bulb finally has gone off that there needs to be some changes. This doesn't erase the need for 50 seat lift, it is just finally being realized where it should have been the whole time.

The need for the CRJ 200 and E 145's are coming to an end, but that does not equate to the 50 seat market need coming to an end. There will be a replacement for this need.
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Quote: OK, so then you are completely aware of why you are starting to see mainline replacing regional flying in certain markets. United is the king of the big three at putting regional aircraft on routes they never should have been on to begin with. All that is happening now is the light bulb finally has gone off that there needs to be some changes. This doesn't erase the need for 50 seat lift, it is just finally being realized where it should have been the whole time.

The need for the CRJ 200 and E 145's are coming to an end, but that does not equate to the 50 seat market need coming to an end. There will be a replacement for this need.
Quite aware of that as I flew E145’s into ATL, JAX, DFW, IND, MSY, FLL, RSW and many more places for 12 years. The end is the single class 50 seat jet
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Quote: Quite aware of that as I flew E145’s into ATL, JAX, DFW, IND, MSY, FLL, RSW and many more places for 12 years. The end is the single class 50 seat jet
So then you are quite aware there is still a need for a 50 seat dual class aircraft since the 200 and 145 has run its course. Ebb and Flow....Ebb and Flow.....
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Quote: Can someone tell me where this new flying is going to come from? UA is scoped out on large RJ’s, that’s why the 550 is even a thing. So the questions that can’t be answered: Where is this flying coming from? And where are the planes coming from?
My suspicion is that UA will go the to the pilot group and say "look at all the RJ's we just unilaterally crap-canned. Pretty-please can we get some more 70's to feed the hubs and enable mainline growth?". Maybe tie additional 70's to mainline growth. It's not horribly unreasonable... at some point lack of feed does start to hamper the hub-n-spoke biz model.

Or just get 220/190s to cover the upper end of RJ ops.
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Quote: My suspicion is that UA will go the to the pilot group and say "look at all the RJ's we just unilaterally crap-canned. Pretty-please can we get some more 70's to feed the hubs and enable mainline growth?". Maybe tie additional 70's to mainline growth. It's not horribly unreasonable... at some point lack of feed does start to hamper the hub-n-spoke biz model.

Or just get 220/190s to cover the upper end of RJ ops.
It is a part of the business that mainline pilot's hate, that regional flying ties into growth.
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