Flightaware

a bunch of amateur narcissistic ex-OO pilots like swapapotamoose

paulcg77

You make good points. And yeah, I still refer to it as the CS100/300 and I have to correct myself when I type that. With all of this said, however you look at it, JB and Allegiant both have massive A319/20 fleets that are 4-5 times larger than VX's bus fleet was at merger. I don't see AS management having the appetite to take on hundreds of A319's and A320's after their history with VX's significantly smaller number of buses, so I do see a large, (mostly) airbus fleet as a deterrent to them either way.

I don't know if AS bid on the original Amazon Air contract. I am guessing AS wasn't willing to go low enough for what Amazon wanted; but knowing AS management, I think they certainly would see a business relationship with cross town Amazon as a benefit, in addition to the universal benefits of diversifying your flying more in the event we are headed for more pandemic and/or economic turbulence in the coming years. SY currently has a dozen NG freighters flying for Amazon and business is booming like never before for both Amazon and freight in general. I think if AS buys SY, it's not too difficult to see some compromises made that would be mutually beneficial to both AS and Amazon to keep and even expand this flying. Would AS chase this merger just for the Amazon flying? No, I agree, that's ridiculous. But is the prospect of getting this Amazon flying a mouth watering proposition to Angle Lake on top of the extra airframes and the M&A to stay relevant bit? Seems possible to me.

Of course, anything could happen. Now that Allegiant is getting Boeings, doesn't seem unreasonable to think they might also want SY. I never thought SW would buy Air Tran and they did, so they might also go for SY and they might be able to justify that more easily than a M&A with AS or G4 given how small SY is. Who knows, but as the smallest mainline carrier in the remaining group, I definitely see an SY merger with someone as more likely than just about any other remaining non-Big 4.

Flightaware

who says Alaska management would or should be at the helm of any post merger airline? They’ve certainly proven themselves to be sub par amongst their peers.

paulcg77

I'm not saying they should be, I'm say they'd never go for anything where they aren't at the helm short of a hostile takeover and a shareholder revolt that removes them involuntarily. Look at their history and behavior. Never underestimate self preservation above all else. They will never voluntarily put themselves in a position where they don't have power, and because of this, I stand by what you quoted. In general, I think AS management is extremely conservative, risk averse, and controlling. They do things reactively rather than proactively and out of necessity rather than with a risk vs. reward attitude. And that is why I think they'll do something to stay alive but will take the path of least resistance for something that is easy and less messy/complex.

NewGuy01

An LCA was claiming we’d get a bunch of flying from Amazon pre pandemic. I don’t remember exactly when. Not that I believed it. I just remember trying not to roll my eyes.

I’d guess AS bid on the Amazon flying but it wasn’t a competitive bid.


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flysnoopy76

i

I can’t see Alaska management seeking to buy or merge with anyone at present, if that day comes and they have any say in it I can’t see them touching any carrier which has a fleet of Airbus. Sun Country could happen but I doubt it, I have heard that we tried for Amazon flying and management found the terms of the deal undesirable. Outside of that Sun Country doesn’t provide much upside given as I said before MSP would almost certainly be shut down. Yes you would get some airplanes and pilots, but is that worth the headaches of a merger or acquisition.
If something happens I think it’s more likely a larger carrier comes after Alaska.

paulcg77

Agree with you about AS management not wanting more airbus airframes, especially not a few hundred more. The only thing I'll say in response re: Amazon Air is that I believe all of this applies pre-pandemic. I'm not saying it's going to make a huge difference, but it's possible that some things have been/are being re-evaluated given we are in a very different world since 2018-2019. I just don't think this should be written off given how much has changed and how attractive a diverse revenue stream is right now and in the future, especially with the freight business at all time highs. Airlines all over the world are rushing to get into freight dogging and convert or buy freighter aircraft for this very reason. Not saying AS is going to randomly step up its freight operations, but I am saying that their desired relationship with Amazon and their perspective on SY's Amazon Air contract might be different now versus 3-4 years ago.

Frankly, the more I think about it, the more I'd bet G4/SY is equally as likely if not more so. Much more similar business model, both will be Boeing operators, and G4 can probably do the Amazon Air contract as low or lower than SY's operating costs.

DaGreenBanana

SY will likely be the one leading the merger/acquisition. Followed by assimilating the new airline to their model - with is arguably the best in the industry.

Rangerover

1. We don’t want or need a MSP base.
2. We can bid on Amazon flying ourselves as it becomes available.
3. We need more market share than a Sun Country merger would give us.


I find AS/B6 or AS/AA much more plausible.

paulcg77

1. AS management doesn't appear to be interested in taking on hundreds of additional airbus aircraft and unless AS is buying B6/AA, they'll never allow a merger where they lose power.

2. You tried that before, it didn't work out for whatever reason that is beyond what anyone here can guess. Buying the carrier that does the flying is an alternative way to get a foot in the door, and that's the point, whether you think it's worth it or not. As I've said before, I don't think AS would ever base a M&A on this, but it's an added bonus.

3. What part of the last decade or anything about the VX merger or AS management style/strategy/behavior makes you think AS is going to intentionally go for Big 4 style expansion and market share? You had the chance to expand like that between 2014-2019, you had an east coast base you shut down, you had airbus aircraft you got rid of intentionally because of your relationship with Boeing and interest in a single type like WN. Everything about the last ten years screams a small M&A with a smaller carrier your management gets to control, if at all.

Is it possible AS merges with/acquires AA or B6, keeps a controlling share, and keeps its own management in power? Sure, definitely possible. Never say never; who would have thought America West would basically control US/AA? But in terms of "plausibility", that's the only way it's going down short of a hostile takeover. I'm not making this up as I go, I'm basing it on history.