flyprdu

Anti-trust is a thing of the past in the United States. T-Mobile/Sprint is the precedent set for any of the big 4 to argue for further consolidation.

paulcg77

We'll have to agree to disagree on that. Whether an antitrust suit by the DOJ succeeds or not is definitely questionable, but it won't be for lack of trying. Telecom mergers are NOT the same thing as airline mergers, and the administration in office at the time of proposed merger/acquisition also makes a yuge difference. Based on what is already occurring, I see significant DOJ scrutiny and legal action against any Big 4 related mergers for at least the next few years. It is what it is.

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justi...n-airlines-and
https://www.wsj.com/articles/justice...ce-11632232697
https://thehill.com/policy/transport...ue-partnership

GreatBigSea

pls god no

BeatNavy

Cool story, but they also filed suit against AA/US. https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justi...us-airways-and

I don’t think they’d approve AA/B6 right now. But apparently long term 70% of JetBlue’s flights will be NEA codeshared flights. If the NEA survives DOJ scrutiny, they are 70% through for a full on merger, at least as far as viewing the combined AA/B6 from an single entity/antitrust standpoint. Throw in AA’s RJ shrinkage, natural attrition, trading some slots and gates to further equalize some of the markets (namely in NYC/BOS), a recession, and God forbid a bankruptcy and a restructuring plan that involves shedding some debt/assets/whatever, I don’t think it’s out of the question.

I don’t think AS/B6 or WN/B6 is out of the question either. Possibly even UA/B6 with a lot of NYC divestiture. DL/B6 no chance.

I predict we will see a whole new wave of consolidation, and we are just along for the ride. No sense in getting spun up about it until we see it in the news. And even then, it’s out of the hands of every single pilot on how it goes.

paulcg77

Equally cool story, but you missed some things I said apparently or somehow came away from this with the impression I'm saying everything is doomed for a Big 4 merger/acquisition and a successful antitrust suit is a sure thing if this were to be attempted. To repeat, DOJ might not be able to successfully stop a Big 4 action, but they'll almost certainly file suit against it, which can potentially delay things for years. This can not only serve as a deterrent for publicly traded/owned companies with shareholders given how long a merger/acquisition between two airlines can take in general, but it can also result in multiple/endless additional DOJ actions depending on how pro- or anti- consolidation the sitting administration is.

For the last few years, particularly since the pandemic started, pilots on here have been chanting about the start of a new wave of consolidation. We're entering year three of the pandemic and the only actual merger that has been announced so far was one of the most predictable, and seemingly easy matches possible from a regulatory perspective. We'll see what happens next. Go Navy, BEAT ARMY!

rickair7777

I wouldn't absolutely rule out WN buying someone, they would still be #4 IIRC. Trust-busters (and some pols) may not like it, but they don't have a compelling case when the big three are still larger than any hypothetical WN merger. Also remember that for this calculation airline size includes regional feed, which makes the big three that much bigger. Details like route structure matter, but fundamentally they probably can't in fairness tell WN that they can't merge.

Route overlap does not preclude mergers. Everybody serves LAX for example, so there are enough options that any two could merge there without real market effects.

Where overlap matters is in markets where the merger partners collectively dominate... for WN and AS that would be SAN. A merger approval would almost certainly be conditional on the divestiture of some gates there for sure. But as long as you can divest where you have to for regulatory approval, without ruining the economics of the whole network, you can make it happen.

rickair7777

Doesn't matter. Only matters if they *think* they can, and can stay busy re-arranging deck chairs.

paulcg77

Oh, I definitely wouldn't rule out WN trying to buy just about anyone. They're a very different airline now than they were 15 years ago and with the problems they've been having lately, anything is possible. I'm just saying that I predict any merger/acquisition action by a Big 4 for one of the remaining mainline carriers will be met with significant DOJ scrutiny and almost certainly an antitrust suit. And, given that writing on the wall, I think it has served as a deterrent so far and will continue to do so, but that's my opinion. As I said before, pilots on here have been predicting a wave of mainline consolidation for years now. First time even an iota of this has happened formally has been today.

I didn't say it did preclude mergers in and of itself. But it is a factor, and that's why I brought it up. I appreciate the devil's advocacy, as always.

All Bizniz

They probably possess enough hubris to believe that it could be a viable strategy to go it alone, and staying busy rearranging deck chairs is certainly what they're good at.

I think they basically knew they were gonna get rid of the Airbus planes, but shuffled those chairs for what felt like ages before finally announcing their decision.

Did the same thing with the JFK base closure..

DotMatrix

Alaska wanted to get rid of the buses before the first can of Virgin cover up blue paint was ordered. Sure Boeing's supposed buyout loan had something to do with it. If you still have any doubt, and please correct me if I'm wrong, every newly delivered AS Max still has "Proudly All Boeing," painted on it.