WE CARE A LOT................about our shareholders..........

Who’s surprised?


”Pilot attrition! That will force their hand!”


Nope.

Cost of doing business status quo, cancel flights, reduce capacity, overhire for attrition
< Cost of new ALPA contract.

So as long as that holds true, no contract is coming. They are going to overhire this year to account for attrition and cut capacity in order to deal with the pilot staffing issue. And as much as we hate it, the investors love it.


I’m starting to understand the merger rumors. It’s like a drug to lessen the pain of what is the reality of being at AS.

I hope you're wrong, but if past results are an indication of future performance, then you might not be..

The recent total meltdown of Horizon is an example. For a long time, they were warned that the flight operations could not be sustained reliably with the pilot issues they were having.

They put off addressing the problems in a concrete way, until finally, the tish hit the fan. After that happened, they simply hit the reset button, and went on their merry way again... "Like it never even happened!"

AS could quite possibly be considered the "Teflon Don" of the airline industry. Nothing ever sticks...... Well,..... until it does, I guess.

Let it go?! I’m not the one that started it. Might want to read back a little further……Ace.

I think you're 100% correct. It makes me sad to think about because it means we will never get a market rate contract. I've been trying to figure out why in Dave Mets threatening email about sick time use last year in July they went over the cost of cancelling 19 flights in very great detail. Yet we are cancelling 30-40 flights a day with big days cancelling over 100 flights a day. Why did they care so much last year and now they hardly care at all?

It's only leverage for management when they want to threaten us about using sick time when it suits them. Even FO's leaving the airline in record number isn't leverage to get a market rate contract. Amazing.

Agreed…… margin is king. In whatever form, so, if shrinking increases margin, so be it. If selling assets increases margin, so be it. That is the only constant. Everything else is malleable. Gotta have two wing walkers…. till ya don’t. What changed? Not enough wing walkers. Do the right thing…. Unless doing the right thing conflicts with margin…. and then don’t. Margin is the cake. Everything else is just varying degrees of frosting.

Not despair brother!!! Their fight isn’t with us…. It’s with reality. They’re betting that we’d prefer to sell our services at a discount…. that at the end of the day, because they know what it’d cost US, that we’ll fold like a cheap suit. I still say if you can’t get a market rate contract in this environment, then you’ll NEVER get one.

Guess we’ll just have to see who blinks first. Good luck beating analyst projections without us.

Not entirely. It's a well-established business principle that you need to grow to thrive... growth allows you to stay ahead of rising costs, and keeps you from getting boxed in by competitors.

Stagnation or shrinkage would generally be viewed with suspicion at best by The Street. Lack of growth today would be assumed to hint at lack of margins down the road.

That's the conventional wisdom, not a of law of physics, but I doubt they want to brag about lack of growth. Unless maybe they have a good excuse, like a recession.

Earnings call….
 

Investor Q: “With United and others hiring so many pilots, what’s your selling point to attract pilots?”

BM A: paraphrasing “Our brand, our culture, our network, and we fly on the West Coast”

Hmmm…. No mention of our contract. Wonder why? 🤔 So all you brand conscious, culturally focused West Coasters who wanna fly everywhere everyone else does for less job security, pay and QOL…. Come on OVER!! 👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻

They can plan to over hire all they want, who’s coming here at this point one, and those that do, how many are staying?
The CEO, when asked how we are attracting pilots, responds with we fly on the west coast and our “culture”….,,
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣