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Old 05-21-2022 | 12:07 PM
  #11  
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90 percent independent
6 percent jet blue
2 percent Hawaiian
1 percent aa
1 percent sun country

Fixed it for you

Originally Posted by OTZeagle1
You are confusing possibility and probability. Here are the percentages I would give.
50% UAL
35% Independent
10% AAL
5% JetBlue
I think the only blocking a UAL deal would be a lack of confidence that the DOJ will sign off. I believe this is being explored right now.
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Old 05-21-2022 | 01:02 PM
  #12  
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Originally Posted by Ala5ka
90 percent independent
6 percent jet blue
2 percent Hawaiian
1 percent aa
1 percent sun country

Fixed it for you

The wildcard is Spirit. If JetBlue acquires them, our doors close with any potential JetBlue merger. If Frontier acquires them, the door is still open for JetBlue and Alaska. And JetBlue has been looking since 2016. The only others in the mix would be Southwest and maybe Hawaiiian. The big 3 buying AS is (most likely) a pipe dream.






Of course if I was AS management, I would wait until next years recession and downturn in the economy when hiring slows down (all carriers), attrition dwindles, then purchase Avelo for a couple million, and force the same JCBA arbitration process as they did for VX. Checkmate
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Old 05-21-2022 | 03:03 PM
  #13  
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Originally Posted by ShyGuy
The wildcard is Spirit. If JetBlue acquires them, our doors close with any potential JetBlue merger. If Frontier acquires them, the door is still open for JetBlue and Alaska. And JetBlue has been looking since 2016. The only others in the mix would be Southwest and maybe Hawaiiian. The big 3 buying AS is (most likely) a pipe dream.






Of course if I was AS management, I would wait until next years recession and downturn in the economy when hiring slows down (all carriers), attrition dwindles, then purchase Avelo for a couple million, and force the same JCBA arbitration process as they did for VX. Checkmate
If B6 buys NK, I would bet AS would be next in 4-5 years and the AA partnerships on both coasts would go away. With some widebodies that’d be a full up big 3 rival, and there won’t be any antitrust issues imo, especially once the repubs are back in control.
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Old 05-21-2022 | 05:48 PM
  #14  
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Originally Posted by ShyGuy
The wildcard is Spirit. If JetBlue acquires them, our doors close with any potential JetBlue merger. If Frontier acquires them, the door is still open for JetBlue and Alaska. And JetBlue has been looking since 2016. The only others in the mix would be Southwest and maybe Hawaiiian. The big 3 buying AS is (most likely) a pipe dream.






Of course if I was AS management, I would wait until next years recession and downturn in the economy when hiring slows down (all carriers), attrition dwindles, then purchase Avelo for a couple million, and force the same JCBA arbitration process as they did for VX. Checkmate
How do you force a JCBA on a company with no contract?
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Old 05-21-2022 | 06:30 PM
  #15  
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Originally Posted by Twr199
How do you force a JCBA on a company with no contract?
Same way AS did with VX.
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Old 05-21-2022 | 07:41 PM
  #16  
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Originally Posted by ShyGuy
Same way AS did with VX.
Both ALPA.
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Old 05-22-2022 | 07:28 AM
  #17  
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I'm kind of surprised that no one has done the math on the lack of growth that this email details. Accounting for the reductions of captains on the Airbus side, we have a total growth of 11 Captains for the next year. For the 7 guys who were downgraded from the effective May to effective October bid this may help. Since they could get their captain bid back effective November. As long as no one senior to them bids for a captain position of course.
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Old 05-22-2022 | 07:33 AM
  #18  
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Originally Posted by rickair7777
Both ALPA.
McCaskill/Bond Act.
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Old 05-22-2022 | 07:57 AM
  #19  
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Originally Posted by BeatNavy
If B6 buys NK, I would bet AS would be next in 4-5 years and the AA partnerships on both coasts would go away. With some widebodies that’d be a full up big 3 rival, and there won’t be any antitrust issues imo, especially once the repubs are back in control.
^^^^^^^This^^^^^^^^
AS+B6+NK = Max/LR/XLR, west, east, south, WBs next.
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Old 05-22-2022 | 08:03 AM
  #20  
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Originally Posted by EskimoJoe
McCaskill/Bond Act.

That would have applied to any SLI, although I think the ALPA rules are more specific than M/B.

I don't recall that M/B addresses the CBA. Maybe it's in the RLA.


But my original point was that VX was already ALPA, and was negotiating a CBA when the merger occurred so a JCBA was a given.
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