Alaska General Discussion
03-28-2024, 09:31 AM
#1601
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Joined APC: May 2018
Posts: 36
Originally Posted by flysnoopy76
I don’t believe downgrade training is anything close to a full training footprint, a few sims at most I think.
03-28-2024, 06:40 PM
#1602
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Position: Precarious
Posts: 378
Originally Posted by ShyGuy
I keep hearing up to 50 Amazon widebodies, amazing growth potential at CVG and SBD. I just don’t trust Amazon. This isn’t our own flag cargo ops. It’s at the whim of whatever cutthroat decisions Amazon decides. In the world of Mesa and ATSG, I don’t know that if AS can provide a long term cost-competitive contract. I certainly wouldn’t put any weight to it going forward. Just my worthless 2 cents.
I remember a static vs dynamic fleet assumption argument in regards to VX vs AS. It’ll be interesting to see how it goes.
I remember a static vs dynamic fleet assumption argument in regards to VX vs AS. It’ll be interesting to see how it goes.
03-28-2024, 07:59 PM
#1603
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2022
Posts: 831
Originally Posted by rickair7777
We *might* provide a cost-competitive contract, if AS gets enough of that flying. Here's how it could go down...
AZ flying grows and we now have hundreds maybe pushing 1000 pilots doing that, many living in the base(s).
Then AZ or outside market factors puts the squeeze on for contract renewal, what's the union going to do? Allow all those pilots to get kicked to the curb, permanently or at least until pax growth attrition can re-employ them? Union politics could drive the MEC to do concessions in that scenario. More so than in an economic downturn, where you know the flying and the furloughs will come back in a few years.
HAL ALPA did it, due to economic pressures, are we that much better?
All that said, it's *possible* that AZ would like to have a large reliable operator, especially during the pilot shortage era, but that could always change down the road. Bezos isn't famous for his generosity.
AZ flying grows and we now have hundreds maybe pushing 1000 pilots doing that, many living in the base(s).
Then AZ or outside market factors puts the squeeze on for contract renewal, what's the union going to do? Allow all those pilots to get kicked to the curb, permanently or at least until pax growth attrition can re-employ them? Union politics could drive the MEC to do concessions in that scenario. More so than in an economic downturn, where you know the flying and the furloughs will come back in a few years.
HAL ALPA did it, due to economic pressures, are we that much better?
All that said, it's *possible* that AZ would like to have a large reliable operator, especially during the pilot shortage era, but that could always change down the road. Bezos isn't famous for his generosity.
03-29-2024, 02:05 PM
#1604
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Dec 2005
Posts: 8,898
Originally Posted by rickair7777
We *might* provide a cost-competitive contract, if AS gets enough of that flying. Here's how it could go down...
AZ flying grows and we now have hundreds maybe pushing 1000 pilots doing that, many living in the base(s).
Then AZ or outside market factors puts the squeeze on for contract renewal, what's the union going to do? Allow all those pilots to get kicked to the curb, permanently or at least until pax growth attrition can re-employ them? Union politics could drive the MEC to do concessions in that scenario. More so than in an economic downturn, where you know the flying and the furloughs will come back in a few years.
HAL ALPA did it, due to economic pressures, are we that much better?
All that said, it's *possible* that AZ would like to have a large reliable operator, especially during the pilot shortage era, but that could always change down the road. Bezos isn't famous for his generosity.
AZ flying grows and we now have hundreds maybe pushing 1000 pilots doing that, many living in the base(s).
Then AZ or outside market factors puts the squeeze on for contract renewal, what's the union going to do? Allow all those pilots to get kicked to the curb, permanently or at least until pax growth attrition can re-employ them? Union politics could drive the MEC to do concessions in that scenario. More so than in an economic downturn, where you know the flying and the furloughs will come back in a few years.
HAL ALPA did it, due to economic pressures, are we that much better?
All that said, it's *possible* that AZ would like to have a large reliable operator, especially during the pilot shortage era, but that could always change down the road. Bezos isn't famous for his generosity.
Concessions to make one sect of the pilot group happy? I’d be a no vote to that. Where do you draw the line? You could use that to justify just about anything.
I still don’t trust Amazon, and put exactly zero weight into the future of CVG Amazon contract flying for AS/HAL.
03-29-2024, 02:56 PM
#1605
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2007
Posts: 3,803
Originally Posted by ShyGuy
Concessions to make one sect of the pilot group happy? I’d be a no vote to that. Where do you draw the line? You could use that to justify just about anything.
I still don’t trust Amazon, and put exactly zero weight into the future of CVG Amazon contract flying for AS/HAL.
I still don’t trust Amazon, and put exactly zero weight into the future of CVG Amazon contract flying for AS/HAL.
03-29-2024, 02:58 PM
#1606
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2023
Posts: 495
Originally Posted by ShyGuy
Concessions to make one sect of the pilot group happy? I’d be a no vote to that. Where do you draw the line? You could use that to justify just about anything.
I still don’t trust Amazon, and put exactly zero weight into the future of CVG Amazon contract flying for AS/HAL.
I still don’t trust Amazon, and put exactly zero weight into the future of CVG Amazon contract flying for AS/HAL.
Use it now, but don't invest the future on it. Maybe an A330 freighter expansion isn't the best choice after all.
03-29-2024, 07:28 PM
#1607
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2005
Posts: 1,405
Unless we know what is written in the Amazon-Hawaiian 330 contract it is difficult to say how good or bad it is in the long run.
The aircraft belong to Amazon.
It is a bit different from other carriers who use their own aircraft to fly for Amazon. A well written contract would have given Hawaiian exclusive rights to staff the Amazon owned aircraft for the eight year duration.
The aircraft belong to Amazon.
It is a bit different from other carriers who use their own aircraft to fly for Amazon. A well written contract would have given Hawaiian exclusive rights to staff the Amazon owned aircraft for the eight year duration.
03-29-2024, 08:58 PM
#1608
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2005
Position: outside
Posts: 663
Originally Posted by ReluctantEskimo
I can't believe I am saying this. ShyGuy is right. PrimeAir is a CPA, and you can't bank your future on a CPA unless it's air tight, which I highly doubt a deal with Amazon is.
Use it now, but don't invest the future on it. Maybe an A330 freighter expansion isn't the best choice after all.
Use it now, but don't invest the future on it. Maybe an A330 freighter expansion isn't the best choice after all.
and the question should be, How does Hawaiian make money on the deal?
Last edited by Neosporin; 03-29-2024 at 08:59 PM. Reason: Sp
03-30-2024, 07:09 AM
#1610
Line Holder
Joined APC: Dec 2015
Posts: 85
I have multiple concerns about the Amazon flying.
When thinking about the Amazon flying, first and foremost, consider the balance of power between the three entities: Amazon, Hawaiian/Alaska, and the pilot group. Amazon holds all the power. Unlike a traditional airline or cargo operation, where the air carrier has a base of thousands or even millions of customers, Amazon is the sole customer. Not only are they the sole customer, they also own all of the infrastructure. Even if the aircraft belonged to us, which they don't, Amazon owns the sort facilities and the fleet of trucks, and the link to the customers. In addition, Amazon has relationships with multiple unsavory on demand cargo operators. They can move the flying wherever they please. The only protection is the current pilot shortage.
We'll never own the airplanes. Owning a large fleet of 330s used strictly for Amazon flying would give Amazon an extinction level hammer in which to beat us in negotiations. Nobody knows how to suddenly fill thirty 330s with cargo without a network of trucks, warehouses, and a customer base. The leases on those idle wide-bodies would send us into bankruptcy overnight. Management won't run that risk. For that reason, we'll never own those planes, and the Amazon flying will always be frought with uncertainty.
Because we won't own the planes, Hawaiian/Alaska management will not have skin in the game. There's limited risk for management but a huge risk for the pilot's seniority list. Imagine an Amazon operation with several hundred or even one thousand pilots. What happens when Amazon excercises their whipsaw machine and they ask for concessions? Could we tell them to F-off with a forlough and the mother of all displacement bids hanging over our heads? In that scenario, all the managers keep their jobs, only the pilots risk unemployment.
We all talk about career expectations. None of us went to work at Alaska or Hawaiian because we hoped management would rent us out to Amazon in a scheme that offers zero protection against pilot furloughs. I didn't survive the lost decade and nine years of the regional airline whipsaw just to voluntarily dangle my balls in Jeff Bezo's vice. We have the opportunity during our upcoming contract talks to express our concerns. In unity we must show our resolve and fight for the protections we deserve in our JCBA.
When thinking about the Amazon flying, first and foremost, consider the balance of power between the three entities: Amazon, Hawaiian/Alaska, and the pilot group. Amazon holds all the power. Unlike a traditional airline or cargo operation, where the air carrier has a base of thousands or even millions of customers, Amazon is the sole customer. Not only are they the sole customer, they also own all of the infrastructure. Even if the aircraft belonged to us, which they don't, Amazon owns the sort facilities and the fleet of trucks, and the link to the customers. In addition, Amazon has relationships with multiple unsavory on demand cargo operators. They can move the flying wherever they please. The only protection is the current pilot shortage.
We'll never own the airplanes. Owning a large fleet of 330s used strictly for Amazon flying would give Amazon an extinction level hammer in which to beat us in negotiations. Nobody knows how to suddenly fill thirty 330s with cargo without a network of trucks, warehouses, and a customer base. The leases on those idle wide-bodies would send us into bankruptcy overnight. Management won't run that risk. For that reason, we'll never own those planes, and the Amazon flying will always be frought with uncertainty.
Because we won't own the planes, Hawaiian/Alaska management will not have skin in the game. There's limited risk for management but a huge risk for the pilot's seniority list. Imagine an Amazon operation with several hundred or even one thousand pilots. What happens when Amazon excercises their whipsaw machine and they ask for concessions? Could we tell them to F-off with a forlough and the mother of all displacement bids hanging over our heads? In that scenario, all the managers keep their jobs, only the pilots risk unemployment.
We all talk about career expectations. None of us went to work at Alaska or Hawaiian because we hoped management would rent us out to Amazon in a scheme that offers zero protection against pilot furloughs. I didn't survive the lost decade and nine years of the regional airline whipsaw just to voluntarily dangle my balls in Jeff Bezo's vice. We have the opportunity during our upcoming contract talks to express our concerns. In unity we must show our resolve and fight for the protections we deserve in our JCBA.
Last edited by LonesomeSky; 03-30-2024 at 07:36 AM.
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