Not many, Q4 2027 if any at all.

 

Pardon me for being confused about this:

Management said that in order to open SAN they would need to reduce SFO and LAX. The bid won't be out until Monday so we don't know the damage in full but it looks like we are indeed reducing LAX and SFO to open SEA. At the same moment they said we wouldn't get any -10s until Q3 2027. For now I'll take that at face value.

Conservatively we will get 6 MAX 8s in 2026. During the first two quarters. I'm assuming that we wouldn't get more than 6 MAX 10s for Q3 and Q4 2027. As others have already mentioned hopefully the -10 deliveries don't come with aircraft retirements.

 

Alaska advertises 36 currently to shareholders odds are some production delays I’ll go with 16 max 10s in 2027 but like I said my glass is feeling half full

 

we won’t get max 10s till the hUD have not heard Q3 I’ve only heard from the all pilot call the one with HA and AS pilots they said 6 months after -7 certification we will start getting max 10s

let me pruse the last earrings see if there’s any tid bits

 

nothing really seems like a just wait and see from the company. Boeing and southwest seeem line till be in Q3 of 2026. I could not find anything from Alaska’s earnings and the Goldman sax cal. That stated the max would not come till Q3 of 2027.

 

Goldman Sachs Call Takeaways (Post–Government Shutdown, w/ Shane Tackett)



The 8-K and revised earnings were intended to be read as bullish, but Wall Street interpreted them as bearish.



Q4 showed strong revenue performance. Prior to the government shutdown, bookings were the strongest of the year. Post-shutdown demand has largely recovered and is running at roughly 95% of prior levels, though not fully back yet.



Q1 is tracking roughly in line with internal expectations. 2026 continues to look strong overall.



A third-party IT review found no systemic issues.



On costs, West Coast fuel prices are finally coming down. Management is actively working to diversify fuel supply sources to reduce exposure to historically volatile West Coast pricing.



The Atmos credit card launch has been very strong, exceeding expectations. San Diego in particular saw significant new credit card growth. Management acknowledged that some of the surge is likely a launch-driven “blitz,” with the open question being how much represents net-new cardholders versus customers who signed up immediately.



Alaska is gaining a clearer understanding of just how loyal Hawaiian residents are to the Hawaiian brand. On the Hawaiian side, the shift in flying has gone well. Hawaiian will still lose money overall this year, but losses are expected to be smaller than previously forecast. Exiting underperforming Hawaiian markets is expected to materially help the path toward profitability in 2026.



There were operational and cost-side fumbles over the summer that hurt results.



GTF engine issues are not fully resolved and could result in the loss of a few lines of flying.



Back-office headcount reductions will continue into 2026.



Fleet commentary aligned with the recent article:

• The 717s are likely to be replaced with 737s unless a suitable high-cycle, low-time alternative becomes available, which is considered unlikely.
• The A330s are staying, with interior refreshes planned, lease extensions, and some buyouts.
• The Hawaiian brand will remain intact. Management emphasized that Hawaiian commands a pricing premium on Hawaii flying versus Alaska, and that the brand has significant standalone value.
• Long term, all inter-island and Hawaii-focused flying will operate under the Hawaiian brand.
• Asia–Hawaii markets remain underperforming due to the exchange rate.

Cargo expansion under Alaska’s own brand (not ACMI flying) but is still viewed as a longer-term opportunity starting in 2026. AMCI is challenging 10 planes is tough and not optimal



More optimization is coming in 2026. Management acknowledged there is still a learning curve on international operations but expressed confidence Alaska will improve execution over time.



No material fleet growth commentary beyond noting a strong Boeing order book.



Bottom line: overall tone of the call was positive, and management remains bullish on a ~$10 EPS target in 2026.

listen here

https://event.webcasts.com/starthere...language=en-us

 

Not if they want 10,000 pilots by 2030.

 

I cringe every time I hear our management say that. I wonder if they believe their own lies at this point.

 

well with the JetBlue merger they’ll put us about 8200 pilots 😛

 

If only OTZ were here to tell us if it’s happening