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Originally Posted by AKCattleCarrier
(Post 3819791)
No chance. took 7 years to retire the airbuses. 3 years to close the JFK base. When the merger closed in 2016 we had 219 mainline tails. At the close of '23 we had 232. 13 tails of growth in 7 years. Only now in '24 are we starting to see organic growth in the # of tails with the VA merger firmly behind us and all those pilots digested into the system. This merger is infinitely more complicated than the VA merger and to my eyes HA seems significantly overstaffed.
Your stuck for the forseeable future. For those that are happy with their place on the seniority list thats fine. For those that are stuck on reserve, just short of upgrade, stuck flying trips they hate etc. Its a disaster. For a new hire looking at options, wouldn't touch this place with a 10' pole. AS probably won't need many anyway. |
Originally Posted by word302
(Post 3819792)
So you think this merger is going to go exactly like the last? Lol man.
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Originally Posted by AKCattleCarrier
(Post 3819796)
Like I said, this merger is infinitely more complicated. Way more variables, way higher probability that unforseen circumstances of various integration decisions have detrimental effects on this pilot group. What you call "takes" are actually well thought out statements based on past precedent of this company, the history of mergers in this country, and objectively looking at the variables at play and how they will effect (affect?) pilot careers. One line little quips without thougt out explanation of your position are in fact "takes".
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Originally Posted by AKCattleCarrier
(Post 3819760)
I think this conversation assumes we are not about to acquire 1100 pilots that are about to have their fleet and route structures flipped on its head. What percentage did we decide commute from the manland? No one seems to know for sure but its high. Staffing is not going to be a problem for a long time. Hiring is not going to be a problem for a long time except for replacing people off the bottom to cover attrition as they realize upgrade times are way longer, seniority progression is way slower, base and fleet options are lower than our legacy peers.
Problems: - Displacement bids from retiring fleets - Shrinking HNL base - "Unknown" future of Amazon flying (I bet all those folks live on the mainland) Unless BM has a secret plan that opens more mainland bases or something this place is going to be a stagnated disaster for pilots for a decade. |
Originally Posted by MinRest
(Post 3819802)
Why on earth would they shrink the HNL base? What fleet is retiring that also includes shrinking? This is a bit silly...
- I believe 717s are likely to be retired asap and inter-island flying is likely to be integrated into the current 737 etops structure (i.e done more effciently with bigger airplanes and less pilots). - 321s and 737s? Past precendent shows AS doesn't want to keep two fleets with overlapping capability. - 787s and 330's? Past precendent shows AS doesn't want to keep two fleets that have overlapping capability. - HAs unprofitable route structure is bound to be slashed through to profitability (ala VAs), what that looks like only ST knows. But the $/Yen chart doesn't bode well for the Japanese tourist returning anytime soon. - Amazon flying - I believe it is unlikely AS will want to staff airplanes they don't own and that subjects them to the whims of the greatest (and famously ruthless) cost cutting logistics operator of all time. (HA is staffing this flying as we speak) - Both airlines are fully staffed (overstaffed?) and historically merger math is 1+1 = 1.5-1.8 once all the :"inntegrations" and "synergies" etc are found and capitalized on. |
Originally Posted by MinRest
(Post 3819802)
Why on earth would they shrink the HNL base? What fleet is retiring that also includes shrinking? This is a bit silly...
SFO will look so much better… |
Originally Posted by AKCattleCarrier
(Post 3819806)
- I believe having wide bodies based solely in HNL is unlikely, limits their destination use and their customer base.
- I believe 717s are likely to be retired asap and inter-island flying is likely to be integrated into the current 737 etops structure (i.e done more effciently with bigger airplanes and less pilots). - 321s and 737s? Past precendent shows AS doesn't want to keep two fleets with overlapping capability. - 787s and 330's? Past precendent shows AS doesn't want to keep two fleets that have overlapping capability. - HAs unprofitable route structure is bound to be slashed through to profitability (ala VAs), what that looks like only ST knows. But the $/Yen chart doesn't bode well for the Japanese tourist returning anytime soon. - Amazon flying - I believe it is unlikely AS will want to staff airplanes they don't own and that subjects them to the whims of the greatest (and famously ruthless) cost cutting logistics operator of all time. (HA is staffing this flying as we speak) - Both airlines are fully staffed (overstaffed?) and historically merger math is 1+1 = 1.5-1.8 once all the :"inntegrations" and "synergies" etc are found and capitalized on. Flying bigger airplanes less often isn’t really a solution for the interisland market. The $/¥ is a red herring because there’s choke Japanese folks traveling to Hawaii. Flights are full and it’s not all Americans traveling the other direction. My litmus test is a friends’ Japanese language surf school that’s completely booked. When they start having openings I’ll be a little more concerned about the Japanese market. |
Originally Posted by Capo2ndFret
(Post 3819831)
Flying bigger airplanes less often isn’t really a solution for the interisland market.
The $/¥ is a red herring because there’s choke Japanese folks traveling to Hawaii. Flights are full and it’s not all Americans traveling the other direction. My litmus test is a friends’ Japanese language surf school that’s completely booked. When they start having openings I’ll be a little more concerned about the Japanese market. A red herring argument would be citing a circumstantial local surf school as evidence for Japanese Tourist numbers. the $/Yen chart is data. https://www.sfgate.com/hawaii/articl...y-19420418.php https://www.civilbeat.org/2024/05/it...ourism-market/ PS real guitar players don't use capos (I kid), I have one on every guitar. |
Originally Posted by JLAMS16
(Post 3819811)
What will hiring and attrition look like when HNL is the junior base to sit reserve on the 717?
SFO will look so much better… |
Originally Posted by AKCattleCarrier
(Post 3819835)
I didn't say less often, I said more efficiently, SWA is proving it works. If it makes sense on a spreadsheet AS will do it.
A red herring argument would be citing a circumstantial local surf school as evidence for Japanese Tourist numbers. the $/Yen chart is data. https://www.sfgate.com/hawaii/articl...y-19420418.php https://www.civilbeat.org/2024/05/it...ourism-market/ PS real guitar players don't use capos (I kid), I have one on every guitar. |
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