Originally Posted by Jetlikespeed (Post 3999377)

5 involuntary and we’d have to count by hand but it was 5 total out of 82 captain displacements

the bid total had 102 captain vaccines but that means 25 senior FOs were senior to those captains that’s why they got downgraded at AS there’s no already in seat protection. When we have a postion bid it just Stright seniorty

however if you are involuntary displaced or downgraded there is no seat lock

normal seat lock for upgrade or downgrade is 2 years

Originally Posted by GoodJet (Post 3999391)

I can’t be bothered to check but I believe that 40 captains and 40 FOs were displaced out of SFO and LAX on the last bid. This will occur again in 2026 to fill the remaining vacancies in SAN. To what extent no one knows.

Originally Posted by PineappleXpres (Post 3999421)

Ok. Thanks. 5 involuntary doesn’t sound bad, but as you say it’s only a part of the story.

Originally Posted by Jetlikespeed (Post 3999377)

5 involuntary and we’d have to count by hand but it was 5 total out of 82 captain displacements

the bid total had 102 captain vaccines but that means 25 senior FOs were senior to those captains that’s why they got downgraded at AS there’s no already in seat protection. When we have a postion bid it just Stright seniorty

however if you are involuntary displaced or downgraded there is no seat lock

normal seat lock for upgrade or downgrade is 2 years

Originally Posted by word302 (Post 3999457)

That’s not quite correct. Involuntary downgrades can only happen when there’s a reduction. Normal bid FOs can’t displace captains.

Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 3999499)

Correct. Even if you're senior to some captains, you can only bid for vacant CA slots. 5 CA vacancies means the five most (global) senior bidders get them (whether current CA's or senior FO's), and that's it, even if 500 people bid for the slots.

SAN opening did not cause any downgrades, it was the reductions in LAX/SFO that did that.

Originally Posted by GoodJet (Post 3999521)

We have another round of LAX/SFO reductions to go with a targeted October effective date.

Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 3999535)

Also about 40 more SAN CA's? My swag is that there aren't going to be enough senior FO's come out of the woodwork to displace anyone else from the left seat, assuming they're willing to commute for that sweet $ and junior schedules.

Originally Posted by GoodJet (Post 3999542)

I have zero predictions regarding downgrades this time around. 2026 we did see downgrades but thankfully it hasn’t been bad so far. However, I’m slowly watching that cliff getting closer and closer. It would be nice to see this trend reverse but I have zero datapoints to show that will happen this year or next.

Originally Posted by Jetlikespeed (Post 3999553)

don’t forget my data point the 36 max 10s in 27 in which training would need to start late 26🤪🤪😛😛

Originally Posted by GoodJet (Post 3999556)

I'm awaiting certification of the aircraft and completion of the MAX 10 line at PAE before I start celebrating.